Out of the Tunnel

Picks, Thursday Edition

2009-10-15T10:22:00.004-04:00

1. Texas vs. Oklahoma

The Oklahoma defense had to step up in the absence of Sam Bradford and it responded by allowing BYU and Miami to score late, leading to two losses and the end of OU's BCS championship hopes. The Sooner offensive line is still putting up as much resistance as a revolving door and top WR Ryan Broyles is probably going to be out for the game, so once again this game will rest in the hands of the Sooner D.

Texas hasn't played a defense the caliber of OU's, but they will score enough points and the Longhorn defense will put Bradford on his back and keep the Sooner offense under wraps.

Texas 24
Oklahoma 17

2. USC at Notre Dame

I've been hearing all week how ND finally believes they can beat USC... yeaaaah I don't believe them. The game will be more competitive than in year's past due to an improved Irish offensive line and USC's inexperience on offense, but USC will still win comfortably.

USC 34
Notre Dame 20

3. Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech

This is by far VT's toughest remaining game. I thought Georgia Tech might take a bit of a fall this year as the ACC gets its second look at the triple option offense, but GT has been averaging a league-best 426.7 ypg. Virginia Tech leads the conference in scoring at 34.2 ppg. Will this be a high scoring shootout like last week's GT win over Florida State?

I'm not so sure. Virginia Tech was able to hold the GT offense to 17 points last year, showing that defensive coordinator Bud Foster has a decent handle on the triple option offense. Georgia Tech's defense has been a little suspect this year, allowing 26.5 ppg. In the end, I think QB Tyrod Taylor and RB Ryan Williams do enough on the ground to grind out a win.

Virginia Tech 31
Georgia Tech 21

4. Cincinnati at South Florida (Thursday)

Cincinnati's potent offense faces off against South Florida's stingy defense in the biggest Big East game of the season to date. The winner keeps alive national title hopes while the loser relinquishes control of its own destiny for a Big East championship.

Cincinnati QB Tony Pike is 8th nationally in passing efficiency and he guides a quick strike offense that scores the third most points in the country (42 ppg) despite averaging the nation's lowest time of possession at 24 minutes a game. USF will counter Cincy's passing attack with the 9th best pass defense. Offensively for the Bulls, QB B.J. Coleman has filled in admirably for injured senior starter Matt Grothe by throwing for six scores against just two interceptions.

That Cincinnati time of possession statistic scares me a little too much, especially against a team that can stop the throwing game like USF can. If Coleman can come up big again for his team, USF will pull off the upset.

USF 31
Cincinnati 28

5. South Carolina at Alabama

Hmm, maybe if this game were at home for SC... ehhh no, probably not even then. Alabama is just too good on defense and they will be able to pound the ball on Carolina's defense. Stephen Garcia has had a nice season, but I have a feeling he will be ineffective against Nick Saban's stout defense.

'Bama 24
South Carolina 10

Today's Games Are Kind of Bad

2009-10-03T11:01:00.003-04:00

I'll try and not go 1-4 this week.

1. Miami vs. Oklahoma

Jacory Harris couldn't handle the pressure in the rain last week against Virginia Tech. It's not going to get any easier for him this week as Oklahoma's defensive line features two future NFL starters in DeMarcus Granger and Gerald McCoy.

With Landry Jones getting the start on the road over injured Sam Bradford, Oklahoma will likely try to grind out points with the ground game. Virginia Tech was able to rack up 272 rushing yards on the Canes, who just a week prior were able to shutdown Georgia Tech's vaunted wishbone offense.

I expect a low scoring defensive battle, and unfortunately for the U their defense does not stack up to Oklahoma's.

Oklahoma 17
Miami 14

2. Cal vs. USC

In any other year I would have penciled in USC to win this game without thinking twice, but this USC team looks like it could be the weakest since Pete Carrol's first year. Jahvid Best will be looking to get revenge after being bottled up last year by the Trojans (30 yards on 13 carries), but you can bet Carrol will load the box and make Kevin Riley beat them.

Cal looked absolutely atrocious last week giving up 42 points and 524 yards to an Oregon offense that hadn't shown much life this year. This doesn't bode well when going up against that USC offensive line and Joe McKnight. USC always takes care of business when it comes to taking control of the Pac 10, and even though this years edition isn't as strong as years past, I think they'll still get it done.

USC 24
Cal 14

3. LSU vs. Georgia

I don't think LSU is very good, but neither is Georgia. The Georgia offense has woken up some since being beaten down by Oklahoma State on opening weekend, but the defense still gives up too many yards and doesn't create enough turnovers.

LSU's offense looks about as pedestrian as last year's, although QB Jordan Jefferson is much less turnover prone than his predecessor, pick six artist Jarrett Lee. The passing game may have improved a little but the ground game has regressed as neither Charles Scott nor Keiland Williams have been able to get on track.

This game could be a defensive slugfest or an offensive shootout, I really have no idea. I'll go with something in the middle.

Georgia 27
LSU 24

4. Auburn vs. Tennessee

Gus Malzahn's offense against Monte Kiffin's defense. It should be an epic battle and the elder Kiffin and Eric Berry will no doubt be able to slow down Auburn's second ranked offense.

Unfortunately for Tennessee, Auburn plays defense much better than Tennessee plays offense.

Auburn 28
Tennessee 14

5. Michigan vs. Michigan State

Tate Forcier has got RichRod's offense humming, but the Michigan defense needs work. Michigan State at 1-3 needs this game to turns its season around. Mark Dantonio is too good of a coach to start the season 1-4 and it's about time for Michigan to come back to Earth a little.

MSU 35
Michigan 31

Congrats FSU, fourth best team in Florida.

2009-09-26T15:22:00.000-04:00

Going to lose to UM, USF, and UF this year. Ouch.

Picks

2009-09-26T10:06:00.002-04:00

1. Miami vs. Virginia Tech

If the 'Canes are really back they win this game by two touchdowns. VT can't stop the run and they are mediocre on offense. Jacory Harris will have to defer to Javarris James and Craig Cooper.

'Canes 31
Hokies 17

2. California vs. Oregon

This could be the year Cal finally puts it all together and wins the Pac 10. Oregon is too one dimensional on offense and doesn't have enough on defense to stop Jahvid Best and Kevin Riley.

Bears 35
Ducks 24

3. Penn State vs. Iowa

The white out is on in Happy Valley as Penn State looks for revenge for their lone loss in the regular season last year. Penn State is overrated at #4 but Daryll Clark and company will still get it done over the Hawkeyes.

PSU 34
Iowa 28

4. Arkansas vs. Alabama

Arkansas is a year away from being a contender in the SEC West. Alabama is not.

'Bama 24
Arkansas 17

5. USF vs. FSU

I don't see it happening without Matt Grothe.

FSU 35
USF 21

Thoughts

2009-09-19T23:48:00.004-04:00

1. U-G-L-Y

Yeah, so it wasn't what all Gator fans wanted, but a win is a win. People are going to complain about the offense and the lackluster passing game, but look at these two passing lines:

8/15 for 96 yards, 2 TDs 0 INTs
14/19 for 115 yards, 0 TDs 1 INT

The first line is Tebow's 2008 game against Tennessee, and the second line is from his 2009 game. Our 2008 offense turned out to be pretty decent, and I think the 2009 edition will get there as well. Florida only managed to score 23 points in Knoxville last season on offense (Brandon James added 7 on a punt return), so in reality they matched last year's output here as well.

A couple things to keep in mind:

This was Florida's first real game.
Tebow's 24 carries were very 2007-esque, but that 2007 team probably wins a national title if it had the 2009 defense.
The Kiffins have tons of tape on Meyer's Gators; the Gators have very little game film on the Kiffins' Vols.
Rainey, Moody, and Demps still all averaged above 7 yards per carry.
Deonte Thompson sat the game out with a hamstring injury and Jeff Demps, Aaron Hernandez, and David Nelson played with the flu.
Eric Berry is the best safety in the nation and will probably bolt for the NFL after this season.

2. Lane Kiffin = Ron Zook?

Vol fans everywhere are no doubt feeling very good about their team tonight. They expected to lose by 50 but managed to escape with a 10 point defeat. They're sure Lane Kiffin has them headed in the right direction.

I was at the OB in 2003 when Ron Zook took an unranked Florida team and nearly knocked off #3 Miami. I left the stadium that night disappointed with the loss, but I felt the future was bright.

The Vols can claim a moral victory, but the fact of the matter is they are 1-2 and will probably have a losing season this year. Next year, they're going to have to start either a true freshman or someone who couldn't beat out Johnathon Crompton at QB. Eric Berry will also be gone.

If Lane Kiffin ultimately can't win more than 7 or 8 games a year, is that going to be enough for the Vols? Probably not.

3. Year of Resurgence

Miami, FSU, Michigan, Nebraska and Notre Dame all appear to be Top 25 worthy again after an off couple of seasons.

Miami, FSU, and Notre Dame are finally getting solid play from their quarterbacks and offensive lines. Tate Forcier has RichRod's offense humming in Ann Arbor and Bo Pelini has returned Nebraska's defense (aside from being burned by Coale, lol get it?) to blackshirt level.

4. Washington

The story here isn't USC, everybody knows they're going to lose to one team they shouldn't each year.

Is Washington going to be the team that finally steps up and challenges USC in the Pac 10? Steve Sarkisian is a Pete Carrol disciple and after playing LSU close and defeating USC he has Washington on a roll just one year removed from a winless season.

Quick Picks

2009-09-04T17:07:00.004-04:00

1. Alabama vs. Virginia Tech

It will be business as usual when the SEC heavyweights step out of conference to take on the little guys. Alabama will control both lines of scrimmage and Nick Saban's defense will eat Tyrod Taylor up. The Alabama offense will do just enough for the tide to roll.

'Bama 24
Hokies 10

2. Georgia vs. Oklahoma State

We saw during last year's bowl season what happens when high octane Big 12 offenses face SEC defenses. AJ Green will outshine Dez Bryant and Kendall Hunter will be held in check. Mark Richt's teams are usually well prepared for openers and Georgia has been an excellent road team during Richt's tenure.

Dawgs 34
Cowboys 28

3. Oklahoma vs. BYU

Oklahoma will struggle on offense with Jermaine Gresham out of the lineup and four new offensive linemen being broken in. Still, their defense will get it done and Sam Bradford will make enough to plays to pull out a win.

OU 35
BYU 24

4. Miami vs. Florida State

Florida State makes the big jump this year from average to slightly above average, can't say the same for the 'Canes. They have a new QB and limited offensive playmakers.

FSU 27
UM 13

5. Illinois vs. Missouri

The Zooker fields what could be his best offense yet with Juice entering his senior season at QB and future top 10 draft pick Arrelious Benn at WR. Florida transfer WR Jarred Fayson will also make his first start for Illinois. Missouri loses Jeremy Maclin and Chase Daniel. Not good considering this game has been a shootout the past two years.

Illinois 38
Missouri 28

6. Florida vs. Charleston Southern

We will see John Brantley probably midway through the third quarter. Interesting things to watch for:

Secondary rotation - Will Hill has proven himself to be a top 5 player on defense during spring and fall practice. Unfortunately in front of him are Ahmad Black (tied for most INTs in the country last year) and Major Wright (Preseason second team All-SEC). Hill played mostly nickel last year as a freshman, but starting CB Janoris Jenkins will be in that role this year, allowing seniors Wondy Pierre-Louis and Markihe Anderson to get on the field. So what are they gonna do with all these DBs?
Starting offensive line - The right side of the line is solidified with the Pounceys and Marcus Gilbert, but starters on the left side are still TBD. It's come down to Matt Patchan, Carl Johnson, and James Wilson.
DT rotation - The one thing lacking from last year's defense was consistent pressure from the defensive tackles. They were able to stop the run, but didn't do much in the passing game. Jaye Howard and Omar Hunter join the DT rotation this season and if the tackles can finally start collapsing the pocket the Gators could break the season record for INTs.
WRs/Percy position - Who is going to get all those touches that went to Percy Harvin? Deonte Thompson should be the go-to guy this year in the passing game. Jeff Demps and Brandon James seem to be the guys who will be moving in and out of the backfield like Percy used to. If Andre Dubose ever gets over his hamstring injury he could see the field as well, and is likely the future at the Percy position.
Can someone please for the love of god start kicking the ball out of the endzone on every kickoff? I'm looking at you Sturgis. Thanks.

Blount suspended for season?

2009-09-04T17:02:00.002-04:00

Albert Haynesworth stomps on someone's unsuspecting face a couple years ago and gets a five game suspension, and poor Lagarrette Blount is done for the season for punching a guy who was clearly taunting him?

Maybe the suspension would have been less severe if he managed to put up more than -5 yards on the ground.

SEC West Division Predictions

2009-08-21T19:47:00.003-04:00

1. LSU - Poor QB play cost LSU at least two games last year. Jordan Jefferson appears ready to run the LSU offense now and new defensive coordinator John Chavis will return the defense to Bo Pelini levels.
2. Alabama - OT Andre Smith is a much bigger loss than QB John Parker Wilson. If Alabama can still run the ball Julio Jones will make plays down field no matter who is throwing them the ball. The defense will be as good, if not better, than last years'.
3. Mississippi - Ole Miss isn't going to sneak up on anyone this year like they did in 2008. Like Alabama, they lose a monster OT in Michael Oher. The defensive line will still be one of the best in the league, despite losing first round rick Peria Jerry.
4. Arkansas - QB Ryan Mallet and RB Michael Turner are ready to unleash Bobby Petrino's offense on the rest of the SEC. If this team were in the Big East or ACC they'd be competing for a conference championship.
5. Auburn - It's Auburn so the defense will still be solid, led by future pro DL Antonio Coleman. Offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn will take an offense that averaged 11 points per game in SEC play last year and make it respectable.
6. Mississippi State - It is just not going to happen this year for ex-Gator offensive coordinator and first year head coach Dan Mullen. The defensive back seven should be good but the line got no push last year and the talent on offense will need to be upgraded in a big way.

SEC East Division Predictions

2009-08-12T10:00:00.005-04:00

1. Florida - Pretty much just slot them in for Atlanta in early December.
2. Georgia - Losing Stafford won't hurt Georgia that much. They will probably be going with RB by committee to replace Moreno, but I wouldn't expect the rushing numbers to dip too much. DTs Geno Atkins and Jeff Owens, who returns after missing last season with a knee injury, are two of the best in the league.
3. Vanderbilt - This should be Bobby Johnson's best team as Vandy returns just about everyone from last year's bowl team except for CB D.J. Moore, who is now with the Chicago Bears.
4. Tennessee - Defense hasn't been an issue for Tennessee the past few years. Anemic offenses led to losing seasons in 2005 and 2008. Safety Eric Berry will lead a once again stout Vol defense, and I think the offense will improve just enough to secure a winning season and bowl berth.
5. South Carolina - Like Tennessee, defense hasn't been the problem (except when playing Florida) but the offense has been close to non-existent and certainly not up to Spurrier's standards. Stephen Garcia will have the QB job all to himself, but he is going to need a running game that averaged just 2.9 yards a carry last season to improve for the South Carolina offense to get any better.
6. Kentucky - The definition of average. Quarterback play put Kentucky in the division cellar last year and it is not going to get much better this season.

Late

2009-08-10T09:18:00.003-04:00

So there were supposed to be four practices open to the public, two for vets and two for freshman, but they cut it down to three and just had the freshman play with the upperclassmen on Friday. Here's some tidbits:

Moody, Black, and Moore didn't practice due to injury but they are expected back soon. I get the feeling that we'll only be seeing Moody in the fourth quarter of blowouts again this season.
Dustin Doe is still suspended from the team for driving with a suspended license. Doe was a starter in 2007 and the first part of 2008 but lost his job when he had to sit out a few weeks due to injury. The depth at linebacker and in the secondary is just ridiculous. Speaking of secondary depth...
Will Hill stepped in for Black and was impressive. Meyer called Hill "one of the top 5 guys" right now. Black was tied for the NCAA lead in interceptions last year so I doubt Hill is going to replace him, but I am sure Meyer and Strong will find a way to get him on the field. Hill was the nickel cornerback and lead the team in special teams tackles last year with 22.
Tim Tebow still has the big windup delivery when throwing the football, but supposedly it has been sped up to allow him to get rid of the ball faster. Every year I read about changes in Tebow's mechanics and every year they still look the same to me... I guess we'll see.
Deonte Thompson is emerging as the the go-to receiver.
Riley Cooper was practicing (sorry Phil).
Andre Debose has mostly looked lost.
I couldn't find anything on who is playing with the first team offensive line. I am not overly concerned about replacing last year's tackles; offensive line coach Steve Addazio has plenty of talent to plug in there.
Starting CB Joe Haden has lined up some in the Wildcat formation. Haden was a quarterback in high school and was originally slotted to play wide receiver at Florida before moving to the defensive side of the ball and becoming the first freshman corner in Gator history to start on opening day. I doubt the Wildcat formation makes an appearance during the regular season.

That's it for now. I am going to release some SEC predictions sometime today or tomorrow and I'll have my preseason Top 25 out by next week.

WOOT WOOT

2009-08-06T11:05:00.001-04:00

Camp started this morning for the veterans. Freshman are up later this evening. Time to start updating again.

LONG TIME!

2009-06-12T04:39:00.004-04:00

It's the offseason so I haven't been updating. Here's a couple stories and my thoughts on them...

1. Alabama forced to forfeit 21 wins .

Not really that big of a deal because this has no effect on the future of the program. Only important thing I can see, especially from a Gator standpoint, is that Urban Meyer's worst loss as Florida's coach is no longer on the books.

2. Lane Kiffin commits about a zillion more recruiting infractions.

Not even going to provide a link for this one because there's too many to link. This guy is so in over his head it's ridiculous. He may be able to put together a good team but I think the only way he is going to be able to do it is by putting UT on probation.

3. Starting Florida CB Janoris Jenkins arrested.

Another Gator arrested for being drunk in a club. He is Florida's best CB (Sorry Joe it's true) and because the charges are all misdemeanors he will miss one maybe two games and be ready by the time Tennessee comes to town.

4. Athlon anoints Gators as preseason #1 team.

No surprise there. What DID surprise me:

Oklahoma gets #2 over Texas
Florida State at #15 (too high)
North Carolina at #19 (too low)
Penn Sate at #7 (not really a surprise but I'd be shocked if they finish the season in the Top 10)

5. Channing Crowder is still awesome.

Looks like Rex Ryan has some scouting to do!

That's it for now. If anything earth shattering happens (please oh please NCAA nail Pete Carrol and the USC Trojans) I'll be back to comment on it. If not it'll probably be a while until my next update.

Only about 2 more months till fall camp begins!

Oh Lane...

2009-02-05T14:15:00.003-05:00

Waah, Urban cheated!

Whoops, sorry I'm just an idiot.

So, Lane Kiffin publicly calls Urban Meyer out for a recruiting violation that doesn't even really exist.

Not to mention Kiffin himself has been busted for FIVE recruiting violations in the past month alone.

You're getting in over your head little man.

I calls it as I sees it

2009-01-22T13:58:00.003-05:00

Well, well, well... to all the 'Canes fans (ok the one 'Cane fan) who were complaining about my post yesterday, this is from a UM beat writer who has been covering the 'Canes for 14 years:

"…..Young and his wife Lawana are the first people I’ve ever heard of who willingly left south Florida for Oklahoma in the dead of winter.

…..Maybe I’m just being Negative Ned, but it sure seems like the Hurricanes’ football team is in crisis. Not much good has happened since about mid-November.

…..Judging by the Internet message boards, I think we can safely say the honeymoon between UM fans and Randy Shannon is officially over."

You can read the rest of the article here.

Post-Draft Deadline Top 10

2009-01-21T09:42:00.002-05:00

Just a quicky because my list changed a little bit. I'll give a more detailed one after spring ball is over. The team's ranking in my previous poll is listed in parenthesis.

1. Florida (1)
2. Oklahoma (3)
3. Texas (2)
4. USC (4)
5. Oklahoma State (7)
6. Virginia Tech (6)
7. Mississippi (10)
8. LSU (9)
9. Ohio State (5)
10. Alabama (NR)

The Raft Is Sinking

2009-01-21T08:43:00.002-05:00

So far the off season has looked like this for Miami:

1. Fired offensive coordinator
2. Starting QB decides to transfer (followed by public feud between QB and Shannon)
3. Bryce Brown, Miami's top rated recruit, decides to look elsewhere
4. Defensive coordinator bolts for... Oklahoma State?

The first three are old news by now, but the fourth is a recent development. Bill Young took a defense that gave up 26 PPG and 346 YPG in 2007 and brought those numbers down to 24.2 and 318.

The 'Canes are now in a tough spot with no offensive or defensive coordinator in place and signing day only 2 weeks away. Given the amount of coaches that have turned down coordinator offers from Shannon in the past, there is a decent chance this next batch of Miami recruits will be signing a letter of intent not knowing who is going to be leading their unit.

It Is Done

2009-01-19T11:26:00.002-05:00

Lane Kiffin and Tennessee will be able to recruit 'em, now the question is will they be able to coach 'em up? Sorry for all the Tennessee/SEC posts, but one person out of the three or four who reads this blog is a big UT fan (hi Josh).

Pete Carrol Is Still Lame

2009-01-16T08:42:00.003-05:00

For all the hype USC has gotten this decade they have exactly one BCS championship and a bunch of blowout victories over hapless Big 10 teams in what is essentially a home game in the Rose Bowl. They have more "hey, we might not have won the national championship, but we were the best team at the end of the season" titles than actual national championship titles. OK I had to rant, on to the real story...

Sam Bradford deciding to come back means that Mark Sanchez probably slides up into the #2 position for QBs in the draft. Naturally, Sanchez decided to bolt for the money. This is a big setback for the Trojans because the offense was expected to carry the team next season. This decision means USC will not be competing for a national championship in 2009 and Pete Carrol is not pleased about that. Carrol took a huge dump on what should have been one of the happiest days in Sanchez's life. You can see what he had to say here.

Here is a nice little snippet of what ol' Petey had to say:

"Mark is going against the grain on this decision and he knows that. He knows that coming out early is a tremendous challenge for a quarterback and the statistics don't back up that it's easy to be successful in the way that he's going about it."

Gator Nation still loves you Stoopsie

2009-01-13T16:11:00.001-05:00

Finebaum ranks the SEC coaches...

2009-01-13T14:48:00.004-05:00

You can view the list here.

The SEC lost a little bit of coaching star power with the departures of Phil Fulmer and Tommy Tuberville. That being said, the SEC still has the best collection of coaches in the country.

Numbers 1 and 2 are obvious.

I think numbers 3-6 are interchangeable. I still have no idea how good Les Miles is as a coach. I thought we would know for sure after this season, but it's kind of hard to blame Miles for going 7-5 when he had no starting quarterback, was breaking in new defensive coordinators, and had to replacemost of his defensive backfield. It looks like he has the defensive coordinator thing figured out and the QB situation looks like it will be under control for next season. The romp over a good Georgia Tech team in LSU's bowl game was certainly impressive. Mark Richt looks like he will go down as one of the best SEC coaches to never win a national championship. Petrino had some impressive wins this season and his Arkansas teams will only get better. In two or three years I think he will solidify himself as the #3 or #4 guy (if he sticks around that long). Houston Nutt will do well with Orgeron's players... once they are gone Ole Miss will go back to being Ole Miss.

I am not sure I would put Spurrier higher than Bobby Johnson or Rich Brooks at this point. Both Johnson and Brooks have produced similar records to Spurrier, but with less overall talent. Spurrier has wasted some pretty good defenses with his terrible offenses. South Carolina has also put some RBs and WRs in the NFL draft, so it seems that the real problem is QB, which is supposed to be Spurrier's specialty. It looks like Urban Meyer will easily surpass Spurrier's accomplishments at Florida, so a little bit of Spurrier's legacy has also taken a hit.

And that leaves us with the new hires. I think Dan Mullen screwed up big time taking the Mississippii State job. If he would have held out another year or two (especially with Tebow coming back) he would have been able to get himself a top tier job. I am not even old enough to remember the last successful Mississippii State head coach. Has there ever even been one? Mullen will need to recruit his ass off to turn the program around. Unfortunately, that is not one of his strong points. He was regarded as one of the weak links on Florida's otherwise strong recruiting staff. According to Rivals.com, Mullen was only responsible for bringing in 1 or 2 recruits a year. Still, though, he was a part of Meyer's staff and that has to count for something. If he is only half as good a coach as Meyer, that will still be better than what MSU is accustomed to.

At first glance, Lane Kiffin and Gene Chizik look like very questiobale hires. Luckily for Tennessee and Auburn both guys put together tremendous staffs. I'm not sure you can rank either guy ahead of the other one at this point.

Ahh, the offseason...

2009-01-13T07:21:00.002-05:00

Well, that awful time of the year is upon us. No more games to watch, no more polls to debate over, no controversy, no story lines. We've got National Signing Day coming up in a couple weeks, and then spring practice will begin a few weeks after that. The most interesting part of the offseason is, of course, watching to see which players from which schools will end up driving drunk, committing armed robbery, getting into fights, beating their girlfriend, and buying/selling drugs. Who could forget Alabama's Jimmy John cocaine drug ring? Or Florida's Ronnie Wilson firing an AK-47 into the air after being chased by some unknown assailant?

If you feel that your life is not complete unless you have some kind of poll to analyze each week, you can always keep an eye on EDSBS' Fulmer Cup to see which school's band of thugs comes out on top for most crimes committed.

I'll let the pictures do the talking.

2009-01-12T12:50:00.002-05:00

2009 Preseason Top 10

2009-01-09T13:15:00.005-05:00

I always wanted to make a ridiculously early top 10 list before anybody knows exactly who is staying and who is going. Here goes.

1. Florida

I thought the championship game would be the last time Percy Harvin and Brandon Spikes suited up for the Gators. I am not so sure now. Even if they don't come back, the Gators have a bunch of guys ready to step in. The defense might be even better next year than it was this year.

2. Texas

Texas was a young team this past season. Most thought they were a year away. With McCoy coming back they will be in good shape for a title run.

3. Oklahoma

They lose a lot on the offensive line, but the Big 12's defensive lines are pretty terrible so it shouldn't matter. If Bradford comes back, the Texas/OU game will probably be for a spot in the national championship game.

4. USC

Their whole defense is gone, but we all know USC's reserves are better than most team's starters. Sanchez will be back and the Pac 10 will still be bad. That said, USC will once again lose a game they shouldn't and be locked out of the title game.

5. Ohio State

Beanie and most of the defense will be playing in the NFL next season. That probably won't matter much. Tressel owns the Big 10 and that will continue. Pryor will be a much better player next season. I don't know if he'll ever develop into an elite passing QB, but his current skill set is still good enough to terrorize most of the Big 10. They'll probably make a BCS bowl and lose to either USC or the Texas/OU loser.

6. Virginia Tech

The ACC champs were supposed to be rebuilding this season. They lose a great CB in Victor Harris but not much else. If they can get passed 'Bama at the beginning of the season, they could go on a run similar to Penn State's this year.

7. Oklahoma State

Zach Robinson and Kendall Hunter will be coming back. Points will be scored. Lots of them.

8. Utah

They don't really belong here because they lose a lot of important seniors. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt for now, I guess.

9. LSU

I really don't know what to make of this team. They could go undefeated or they could lose five games again. The defense will be much better under John Chavis, but they need to find someone who can make plays at the QB position.

10. Mississippii

Could Ole Miss be the best team in the SEC West? They return a lot of starters and they finished the season with a lot of momentum. Alabama loses a lot of senior leadership. See above for LSU. Auburn will be better but not by much. The combonation of Ed Orgeron's players and Houston Nutt's coaching ability is tough to beat.

Other teams that will probably appear in the top 10 at some point in the season: Penn State, Boise State, Alabama, TCU, Georgia Tech, Oregon.

Champs

2009-01-09T11:14:00.005-05:00

Pretty strange game last night. I didn't think either defense would play as well as they did. Here's my observations:

1. The Gators used a simple formula to slow down the OU offense. They lined up correctly and they tackled well. OU's offense had been feasting all season on defenses that could not keep up with their fast pace, but with a month to prepare Florida's defense adjusted just fine. OU even slowed their offense down when they realized that they weren't going to be able to outpace the Gator defense. I think Oklahoma averaged something like 90 plays a game, but managed just 76 in this game. Watching replays of the game, it's kind of funny because Fox obviously had this whole thing setup with a clock to show how fast OU gets their plays off. I don't think we saw that clock again after half time.

2. What a monster play by Torrey Davis on that fourth and goal play. He shed TWO blockers AND made the tackle. That was about as good a play as you will ever see out of the DT position. Ahmad Black's interception was also outstanding. Black was a third string corner back going into spring practice, and now he is one of the best safeties in the nation.

3. The game ball has to go to Percy Harvin. He was maybe 80%-85%. Percy usually glides all over the field, but even on his long runs you could tell that the ankle was bothering him. Tebow will get most of the offensive credit, and he did pick up some key first downs, but the Gators don't win the game last night without Percy Harvin.

4. The refs were terrible in this game. Florida's defense was ready for OU's fast paced offense; the refs were not. Half the time they could not get the ball set on time and they continually had problems with the game clock. The excessive celebration/taunting penalties in college football are getting out of hand. It's not that they're calling too many of them, it's that there is no consistency. Louis Murphy gets flagged for making a first down signal, but there is no flag when Tebow is running and jumping all over the field while waving his hands up and down? This is like foul calls in the NBA. If you're a well known player you can celebrate all you want and not get penalized, but the other guys get flagged for the smallest things. It's been like this all season for every team, though, not just last night.

5. The Sooners really missed DeMarco Murray. I thought it was ridiculous when the media tried to act like him not being in the lineup was no big deal. His replacement, Chris Brown, had a very good game, but Brown is not the type of back that can get you points against this defense. Brown is a grind-it-out, move the chains kind of running back. The only way to score on this defense is with big plays. DeMarco Murray is OU's best playmaker. You can't methodically drive down the field on the Gator defense because they will eventually force a turnover or get you in a third and long situation. I believe the Gators are the best defense in terms of stopping teams on third down. If they're not #1 they're in the top 5.

6. Tebow is not ready for the NFL. He played his worst or second worst half (first half of Auburn 2007 being the other stinker) of football to open the game. The only reason he was effective in the second half was because he decided if his primary receiver wasn't open he was just going to tuck it and run. This works great in college (Vince Young did the same thing against USC a few years ago), but it's not going to fly in the NFL.

On a side note, Nic Harris is a total douche bag. What an embarrassment. He intentionally used Tebow's head as a stepping stool to get off the ground once. There was no doubt that he did this on purpose. He also held on to Harvin's legs on the play Harvin tweaked his ankle. I don't think it had anything to do with the injury, but it was still a bush league move. You know he must have been playing dirty for Tebow to taunt him at the end the way he did. I don't think Tebow is as saintly as everyone makes him out to be, but Tebow would not do what he did unless Harris really deserved it.

STOP IT

2009-01-05T20:19:00.001-05:00

Just noticed Terelle Pryor is sporting the initials on the back of his arms. THIS ISN'T COOL NOW AND IT'S NOT GOING TO BE COOL 40 YEARS FROM NOW.

One Week To Go

2009-01-01T11:37:00.002-05:00

I decided to start posting my thoughts on the 'ship since we are officially just a week away and Iowa is turning this Outback Bowl into a yawner.

This post was inspired by this Bill Simmons column.

Basically, the 2008 Oklahoma Sooners are college football's version of the Mike D'Antoni/Steve Nash led Phoenix Suns from the middle of this decade. They score a lot of points. They're fun to watch. They never made it to the NBA Finals.

Yes, this Sooner team made it to the college football equivalent of the NBA Finals, but only because they played in a conference full of other Suns type teams.

Most NBA fans are familiar with those Suns teams. They won 55-60 games while scoring a bajilion points, but then ran into the defensive minded San Antonio Spurs in the playoffs. The Spurs slowed the game down and Phoenix's inability to play a slow tempo, half court game became their undoing.

No doubt, the Florida Gators are going to slow the game down. They're going to run. And run. And run. And run. Oklahoma is down a defensive tackle and might have to start their third string middle line backer. If Urban Meyer has his way, Tim Tebow will put the ball in the air 15 times at the most.

The ingenious part of this strategy is it takes OU's biggest offensive advantage (their fast paced offense) and turns it against them. If Florida is going on 12 play, seven minute scoring drives, can OU afford to run the up tempo offense and risk putting the OU defense back out on the field? Oklahoma is going to have to slow down to give their defense time to rest.

Most people believe that the OU offense vs. the UF defense is the key matchup, but in reality this game will be decided by how well OU defends UF's rushing attack.

Team Marve vs. Randy Shannon, Round One

2008-12-31T13:14:00.002-05:00

Starting (kind of) University of Miami quarterback Robert Marve has decided to transfer from Da U.

It seems like the main reason for the transfer is Randy Shannon's refusal to promise Marve the starting job for the 2009 season. And you know what? Shannon has every right to do that. Marve did not exactly separate himself from backup QB Jacory Harris. The two were rotated all season and Harris finished with more TDs, less INTs, and a higher QB rating.

The only thing that really makes this transfer noteworthy is the Marve family's questioning of Shannon's character. They were upset that Shannon decided to wait 8 months to suspend Marve for the 2008 season opener. No one knows where Marve will transfer to because Shannon has pretty much barred him from playing anywhere in the Southeast.

Here are the Marve family quotes:

"(Randy Shannon) is preventing Robert from playing for any team in the ACC and also trying to prevent him from playing for any SEC team and any team in Florida, all the teams," said Marve's father, Eugene. "It's vindictive. If he's that worried about the talent of Robert Marve he would have treated him with better respect.

"I had to get out," Marve told the AP from his family's home in Tampa. "I just decided that I can't play for Coach Shannon."

``Shannon gave him the release with that stipulation. I've never heard of that before. The ACC [ban] is reasonable. The SEC is ridiculous. There are a lot of schools in the SEC that never see Miami. This has gone to a personal attack against my son, and it will not go without challenge. This is a shameful day that Shannon has brought to the University of Miami. This is a shameful day for Randy Shannon and what he represents, and every recruit should watch out for what you're seeing happening to Robert Marve."

Some quotes from Marve's coach, including his vow that no player of his will ever play for UM again, can be found here:

http://www.fannation.com/truth_and_rumors/view/83434-tampa-high-school-coach-rips-miamis-shannon

So what does this all mean? Probably nothing. I can't really see UM's offense ever reaching a championship level under Randy Shannon no matter who he benches, promotes, whatever. Shannon is a defensive guy and it seems like he doesn't have any idea how to run an offense.

When he took over the UM job he tried to get Mike Shula and Dirk Koetter to run his offense. They both turned him down and he had to settle for Patrick Nix. Of course, Nix was a complete flop and now Shannon will have to go through a couple more candidates who will most likely turn him down before he settles on another offensive coach no one else really wants.

Excuse me sir, I could use your assistance.

2008-12-29T17:06:00.002-05:00

Looks like we have some coordinator moves to go over.

#1 - Gus Malzahn / Auburn OC

Love the pick here. Malzahn was the OC for Arkansas when they went to the SEC Championship game in 2006 and he called the plays for a Tulsa team that ranked second in the nation in points and yardage per game this season.

He is one of those guys who can adjust his system to the talent that he has. This should setup some interesting Malzahn vs. Houston Nutt battles in the future. I didn't think it was going to happen, but if Urban Meyer wanted to hire him as UF's OC I wouldn't have complained. Speaking of that job...

#2 - Steve Addazio / Florida OC

Not a new hire, but a promotion. Addazio serves as the offensive line coach and will now be the head play caller also. Really, Meyer could have hired my dog as the new OC and I wouldn't be able to argue with the selection. His track record is pristine. Every OC Meyer has had has gone on to a head coaching position. Considering Addazio was already in consideration for some head coaching spots (Syracuse most notably) I think Addazio will do just fine.

#3 - THE CHIEF John Chavis / LSU DC

This is either going to be a great or disastrous hire. LSU flourished under Bo Pelini's aggressive defensive game plans, but then everything went to hell this year when they tried to run Pelini's (Pelini is now the head coach at Nebraska) scheme using a co-coordinator system.

Chavis is the opposite of Pelini, he'd rather sit back in a zone and eliminate the possibility of the big play. Chavis has been very successful when he had dominant defensive lineman like Albert Haynesworth at Tennessee, but his defenses have become very average when he has lineman who can't get in the backfield.

You'd think Chavis would be a great fit for LSU with the recent talent LSU has had on the defensive line, but unfortunately it seems like the talent well is drying up. Les Miles has had some highly ranked recruiting classes, but so far they have not lived up to their ranking. If LSU can find itself another Glenn Dorsey or two they'll be ok, if not... Chavis and Miles will both probably be out of a job in the next two years.

PLAYOFFS

2008-12-28T20:25:00.002-05:00

I know this is a college football blog but I have to acknowledge what the Dolphins did this year. From 1-15 to 11-5 and AFC East champs. Chad Pennington goes into Jersey and whoops up on Favre and the Jets.

Murray Out / Mullen In

2008-12-16T17:06:00.002-05:00

Two interesting developments for the national championship game today...

1. DeMarco Murray Out

Starting Oklahoma running back and kick returner DeMarco Murray will miss the game. I don't think this will hurt Oklahoma's running game too much, as backup Chris Brown actually has rushed for more yards than Murray. Where it's going to hurt is on kick returns and receptions out of the backfield. Murray had a Percy Harvin like ability to line up in the back field and then motion into the slot and catch passes. With Chris Brown in the game, the Gators won't have to guess as much as they would if Murray was in the game.

2. Dan Mullen Will Call Plays

Not sure how I feel about this. If Meyer thinks it's best, then I can't really argue. I'd imagine Meyer demanded that Mullen stay in Gainesville and concentrate solely on the BCS Championship game. Even if this is the case, I can't help but feel that Mullen at least will be somewhat distracted.

9. Chick-fil-A Bowl - Georgia Tech vs. LSU

2008-12-16T09:25:00.002-05:00

An interesting matchup because the two teams are heading in different directions. No one expected much out of Georgia Tech, but they managed to go 9-3 and made a late push for the ACC Championship. LSU started out in the top 10 but ended up 7-5 due to inexperienced QB play and a surprisingly awful defense.

LSU has one advantage in this game because they have a whole month to prepare for Georgia Tech's unusual rushing attack. Will it matter though? LSU was supposed to have one of the best defensive lines in college football, but in big games against Florida and Georgia the defensive line wasn't much of a factor.

On the other side of the football, LSU will have to coach up freshman QB Jordan Jefferson to go against a decent Georgia Tech defense. Jefferson has made less mistakes than Jarett Lee, but he hasn't really been able to move the offense either.

Top 10 Bowl Games

2008-12-15T14:34:00.002-05:00

Over the next ten days I will take a look at what I think are the ten best bowl games, starting with...

#10. Hawaii Bowl - Hawaii vs. Notre Dame

This one creeps in at the #10 spot for two reasons:

1. If Notre Dame can't end its nine game bowl losing streak against Hawaii then it might actually be possible that they never win another bowl game again.

2. Cheeseburger Charlie is officially on the one-more-bad-season-and-you're-gone hot seat. No one is going to be saying the Irish are back if they win this game, but at least a win will be something to build on going into next year's do-or-die season.

As for the game itself... it should be pretty close, because these two teams are the definition of mediocrity. Neither of them do anything particularly well, but they are also not totally inept.

The Cycle Is Nearly Complete

2008-12-13T18:37:00.002-05:00

As recently as the beginning of this season it looked like the SEC was set to maintain it's reputation as the best conference in college football for quite some time. The league boasted five national championship winning coaches (Steve Spurrier, Phil Fulmer, Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Les Miles), one coach who led his team to an undefeated season (Tommy Tuberville), an SEC championship caliber coach (Mark Richt), two proven winners (Houston Nutt, Bobby Petrino), and two coaches capable of making both Kentucky and Vanderbilt respectable (Rich Brooks, Bobby Johnson). The only weak link was Sylvester Croom at Mississippi State.

Fast forward to December 13th and the SEC coaching landscape looks a lot different. Here is how I think each school's stock has changed since the beginning of the season:

Alabama - Stock: Way Up

Nick Saban has turned Bama around in just his second season. Alabama's stock has risen more than any other school's this season. One of the few bright spots in the SEC this season.

Arkansas - Stock: Unchanged

The record will say that Arkansas' stock took a bit of a hit this season, but that is not the case. Arkansas had to replace two first round running back talents and much of the defense. Bobby Petrino's young team improved as the season went on and with Ryan Mallet ready to take over the QB position next season, Arkansas may be ready to make some noise in the west.

Auburn - Stock: Way Down

Gene Chizik replaced Tommy Tuberville. This is a real head scratcher. Really, Auburn's president should fire the AD and Chizik tomorrow. Just an unexcusable hire. What an absolute train wreck.

Florida - Stock: Up

Urban Meyer has proven that he will have the Gators in contention for national titles for years to come. It might be hard to believe, but this is just the beginning. This Florida team is still very young. If Brandon Spikes does not leave early, the Gators will return every starter from what is already a dominant defense.

Georgia - Stock: Down

You can blame the disappointing season on injuries, but true championship caliber teams have enough depth to overcome some personnel losses. Richt may never have a better QB/RB/WR trio than Stafford/Moreno/Green.

Kentucky - Stock: Unchanged

With a respectable 6-6 season, Rich Brooks has shown that he can keep Kentucky competitive in the SEC.

LSU - Stock: Way Down

I would have been willing to give Miles a pass on this season because of the Perilloux ordeal, but the QB position was not the only reason LSU stunk this season. The defense was routinely lit up and the Tigers managed to lose three games at home. Miles is going to have to turn it around quick or he'll be gone in two years.

Mississippi - Stock: Up

Houston Nutt took a team that did not win a single SEC team last year and led them to victories in Baton Rouge and Gainesville. Ed Orgeron recruited well and now Nutt is reaping the benefits. If Nutt can maintain this kind of talent in Oxford he might be able to win an SEC West and maybe even an SEC championship.

Mississippi State - Stock: Unchanged

This is definitely the most intriguing of all the new hires. MSU was in desperate need of some offense, so they went out and hired arguably the best offensive coordinator in the SEC. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. Did Meyer make Mullen? Was he only successful because of Tebow and Harvin? If Mullen is the real deal, will he have all the tools necessary to be successful at MSU?

South Carolina - Stock: Down

The 'Ol Ball Coach has gotten decent play out of his defense, but he has yet to get the offense up to Spurrier standards. It is looking less and less likely that Spurrier will be able to accomplish any of his goals at South Carolina.

Tennessee - Stock: Way Down

Even though Tennessee was picked to finish third in the SEC East this year, no one saw 5-7 coming. Fulmer is gone. Kiffin may or may not turn out to be a good hire, but you'd have to think that Tennessee needed to get a bigger name than this. When the fanbase is more excited about the assistants being brought in than the actual head coach... there might be a problem.

Vanderbilt - Stock: Slightly Up

Vandy finally gains bowl eligibility.

Conference Outlook:

The SEC is starting to look like the Big 12 did earlier this decade. Two dominant teams (Florida and Alabama) and then a bunch of middle of the road and lower tiered teams. LSU and Georgia are going to need to step it up over the next few seasons or Meyer and Saban are going to run away with the conference.

All-Overrated / All-Disappointment Team

2008-12-13T17:04:00.006-05:00

The definitive list of guys who get way too much hype for no reason at all. Not all positions will be filled.

Offense

QB - Matthew Stafford, Georgia
RB - Javon Ringer, Michigan State
RB - Beanie Wells, Ohio State
RB - James Davis, Clemson
WR - Brian Robiskie, Ohio State
WR - Aaron Kelly, Clemson

Defense

DE - George Selvie, South Florida
DT - Ricky Jean-Francois, Louisiana State
LB - James Laurinaitis, Ohio State
CB - Malcom Jenkins, Ohio State
S - Myron Rolle, Florida State
S - Rashad Johnson, Alabama

My First Team All-America Selections

2008-12-13T16:37:00.005-05:00

If this list is a little SEC heavy... TOO BAD IT'S MY LIST

Offense

QB - Tim Tebow, Florida
RB - Shonn Greene, Iowa
RB - Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma State
WR - Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech
WR - Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State
TE - Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma
OT - Michael Oher, Mississippi
OG - Mike Pouncey, Florida
C - Antoine Caldwell, Alabama
OG - Duke Robinson, Oklahoma
OT - Andrew Smith, Alabama
All-Purpose - Percy Harvin, Florida

Defense

DE - Jerry Hughes, Texas Christian
DT - Terrence Cody, Alabama
DT - Peria Jerry, Mississippi
DE - Everette Brown, Florida State
LB - Brandon Spikes, Florida
LB - Rey Maualuga, Southern California
LB - Mark Herzlich, Boston College
CB - D.J. Moore, Vanderbilt
CB - Janoris Jenkins, Florida (NOT a homer pick... the kid is GOOD)
S - Eric Berry, Tennessee
S - Taylor Mays, Southern California

Special Teams

K - Graham Gano, Florida State
P - Chaz Henry, Florida
KR - Jeremy Maclin, Missouri,
PR - Brandon James, Florida

Random Thoughts

2008-12-10T10:19:00.002-05:00

1. Bad Idea 'Barn

I mentioned in a post earlier in the season that the number one rule in coaching changes is to make sure you have someone lined up who you are confident is better than the guy you have. Change for the sake of change works in baseball and basketball, but it is a terrible idea in college football. For one thing, it ruins that year's recruiting class (I believe Auburn has already had five recruits decommit) and you also have to stick it out with the guy at least 3 or 4 years even if it's clear a couple games into the first season that he isn't going to work out.

That being said, who is Auburn going to get that they know will be better than Tuberville? How many coaches in the country could go undefeated at Auburn like Tuberville did in 2004? It is even more unlikely now that the new coach will have to go up against Saban for the local recruits.

2. Tebow vs. Hansbrough

Pete Fiutak wrote a funny article comparing Tim Tebow to Tyler Hansbrough in terms of motivation. Here's the link:

http://cfn.scout.com/2/819659.html

It's pretty funny and I think dead on. As a Gator fan I enjoy Tebow's motivational techniques, but I'm sure to all other fans of college football it's as annoying as Tyler Hansbrough's celebrations are to me.

3. Heisman Trophy Race

For those interested, here is a website that tracks the Heisman Trophy Race:

http://www.stiffarmtrophy.com/

It was started six years ago and has picked the winner correctly each year.

4. USC Assistants

Steve Sarkisian? Really? The same guy who has been in charge of USC's underperforming offense the past few years? Here is a tip for future ADs considering USC assistants for head coaches: THEY ALL PERFORM BADLY AFTER THEY LEAVE PETE CARROLL.

USC follows a simple winning formula: Carroll gets every single football player worth a damn on the west coast. This means that all other west coast programs get second tier talent, and thus become second tier teams. There is nothing magical in the scheming or strategy at USC when it comes to actual football. These assistants are not going to turn you into the next USC. They're probably not even going to turn you into the next Cincinnatti. Just stay away from them.

5. Get Out Mike Leach

This year was the best you're going to do Mikey. You're never going to have a better QB or WR combo than Harrell and Crabtree. You'll never get the athletes to compete on defense as long as Mack Brown is still coaching at Texas. You've got nowhere else to go but down. Clemson was the perfect job for you, but they pulled a West Virginia and hired an unproved career assistant. Washington was a good job for you, but they pulled a Mississippi and hired a USC assistant who might or might not last longer than Lane Kiffin did at Oakland.

The next job offer you get from a decent BCS school in a conference not named the Big 12 or SEC, take it and never look back.

My Heisman Ballot

2008-12-09T11:47:00.002-05:00

1. Colt McCoy, QB - Texas

The kid took a beating in several games this year and was able to lead his team to victory in all but one game. Out of the three players on this list he has the worst supporting cast by far. He beat Sam Bradford head to head. Statistically he's somewhere in the middle of Bradford and Tebow, but without him I don't think Texas gets more than 8 or 9 wins this year.

2. Tim Tebow, QB - Florida

I think he is the best player in college football, but he got too much help from his teammates this year. He put the team on his back and carried the Gators to victory in the SEC Championship Game, and that might be enough to win him the actual award, but in most of the other games this season he was happy to sit back and distribute the ball to the guys around him.

3. Sam Bradford, QB - Oklahoma

I'm not very impressed with this guy, but he put up great numbers and has his team in the national championship game so he has to be on the list. He has great players all around him and an offensive line that offers him plenty of protection. There are at least 20 college QBs you could replace him with and the Sooners wouldn't miss a beat.

Let It Go 'Bama Fans...

2008-12-08T16:45:00.001-05:00

It was a face mask. You lost.

SEC Defense vs. Big 12 Offense

2008-12-08T10:50:00.002-05:00

There's going to be a lot of talk over the next month about the caliber of defenses and offenses in the SEC and Big 12. Was Oklahoma's offense so good because it was playing such bad Big 12 defenses? Are the SEC defenses so good because they were playing such bad SEC offenses? There's a simple answer: no one knows.

That is why this BCS title game is going to be so fun: we'll finally get to find out.

Early Thoughts on THE 'SHIP

2008-12-08T09:45:00.002-05:00

This one's not going to be very complicated. If UF can get pressure on Bradford, the Gators will win. The amount of pressure the Gators get on him will be relative to the amount of points they win by.

If you remember the last time the Gators faced an unstoppable offense in a BCS title game (shouldn't be too hard, it was against Ohio State in 2006), they got a ton of pressure on Troy Smith and held Ohio State to under 100 yards of offense. This Gator defensive line is not as good as the 2006 line and this Oklahoma offense has more weapons than that Ohio State offense had, so it's not going to be as easy this time around.

That being said, the linebackers and secondary on this Gator defense ARE better than the 2006 edition, so the defensive line will not have to shoulder the load. Janoris Jenkins is a true shutdown cornerback (yes, even as a true freshman... the kid is that good), and he should be able to keep Juaquin Iglesias in check.

Jermaine Gresham will be a key component of Oklahoma's offense. The Gators have not faced a tight end as good as him since spring practice (Gresham is a lot like Cornelius Ingram, Florida's standout TE that was lost for the season during Fall camp). I don't even really know who Florida has that can matchup with this guy. If I had to guess, I'd say Will Hill. I think Hill will be very important for the Gators in this game. The Sooners run an up tempo offense, so the chances for substitutions will be rare. Having a defensive back that is strong against both the pass and the run will be crucial. The best way to render Gresham ineffective will be, of course, to pressure Bradford.

On offense, the Gators won't have much of a problem putting points on the board. Oklahoma trots out the 65th ranked defense in the country (which, funny enough, was good enough to be the 2nd ranked defense in the Big 12). I think the Sooner defense is a little underrated considering the Sooners run the no-huddle a lot, so teams have more opportunities to score points. The Gators will try to establish the running game to keep the Sooner's offense off the field.

It will be interesting to see if Oklahoma can stop Tebow, Rainey, Demps, Harvin, and Moody on the ground. You must remember that Oklahoma's star MLB, Ryan Reynolds, was lost for the season earlier in the year. If the Sooners do manage to stop the run and the game turns into a track meet, Florida should still be fine. Texas was able to put 45 up on Oklahoma. No offense to Colt McCoy and the Texas offense, but McCoy is basically a mini-me version of Tebow and the skill position players Tebow has to work with are far superior to that of Texas'.

The x-factors to watch for in this game:

1. Bob Stoops has lost his last four BCS games, including games the past two years against West Virginia and Boise State in which Oklahoma was a heavy favorite.

2. The Heisman winner will go a long way in deciding who wins this game. And I'm not just talking about Tim Tebow.

Tebow and Bradford are the two likely favorites to take home the Heisman this year. I'm not saying there is such thing as a Heisman curse, but the Heisman winner has not fared very well in the title game in recent years. Troy Smith, Jason White, and Chris Weinke have all won the Heisman this decade and then have gone on to lose the BCS title game. Matt Leinart was the only player able to bag a Heisman and a national championship in the same season.

Lane Kiffin Already A Success at Tennessee

2008-12-02T05:10:00.002-05:00

I believe the picture says it all.

Kansas State Names Al Davis errr Bill Snyder Their New (Old) Head Coach

2008-11-24T21:35:00.002-05:00

You can probably tell from the title of this post that I do not approve of KSU's decision to bring back 69 year old Bill Snyder. I don't really know what they're thinking on this one. He'll be 73 when his first recruiting class graduates.

Snyder was already losing his touch when he left KSU the first time (9-14 in his last 23). I wonder if this hire was a result of no one else wanting the job.

Texas Is the Best Team In the Big 12

2008-11-23T10:32:00.003-05:00

After Texas Tech humiliated itself last night, I think it's pretty clear that Texas is the best team in the Big 12. They fell behind early to Texas Tech because after three straight Top 10 battles they couldn't match Tech's intensity, but in the second half they regained their form. You can't tell me that OU is now better than the Longhorns because, of course, Texas beat them on a neutral field. Texas should be going to the Big 12 title game. It won't happen, though, because if Oklahoma takes care of business next week, they will be the Big 12 South representative.

Two other things we learned last night... Tim Tebow deserves to win his second Heisman and the SEC champ will likely win the national title again. Sorry, but the Big 12 teams play no defense. All of these Big 12 games have been decided by which defense plays the worst. Each Big 12 South QB has taken turns lighting up the opposing defenses. Tebow has been throttling teams that actually play a little D.

No, you get a life.

2008-11-20T16:53:00.003-05:00

In case anyone missed it, Rich Rodriguez told Michigan fans to "get a life" because of mounting criticism he is facing.

Really RichRod? These passionate fans pay your salary, they fill your stadium, they are the only reason Michigan football is relevant. Without them, you'd be making less than $100,000 and playing in front of 10,000 people.

If you had managed to not have the worst season in school history, the fans probably wouldn't be complaining. I know you were planning on at least a one year grace period, but I'm guessing that plan didn't include losing nine games this year. Don't make a bad situation worse by lashing out at the people who pay good money to watch your team play each fall Saturday.

Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma

2008-11-20T16:32:00.004-05:00

Well, this one seems pretty easy to me.

The game is in Norman. Bob Stoops has only lost twice in nearly ten years at home. Texas Tech had some nice home wins, but I don't think they're ready to win a big time away game like this yet.

Plus, check out these stats from http://blatanthomerism.blogspot.com/2008/11/leachs-kryptonite.html

"Since 2004, Tech has played a total of 60 games, 45 on turf and 15 on grass. During that period, the Red Raiders have put averages of 43.1 points per game and 499.2 yards of total offense per game on artificial turf. In comparison, the national medians for all teams on all surfaces are averages of approximately 25 points and 360 yards. What happens when the Raiders play on the real stuff? Tech's averages drop considerably: 27 points per game and 430 yards. On a per-play basis, Leach's teams have averaged 6.0 yards per play on grass versus 6.9 yards per play on turf. Each offensive play generates an average 0.37 points on grass against 0.59 points per play on turf. The disparity even holds true when it comes to taking care of the ball. Since the 2006 season, the Red Raiders have averaged 1.2 turnovers per game on grass, while they have turned it over an average of just one time on turf."

I'll have a more in-depth analysis up in a bit.

Big Least

2008-11-16T00:53:00.004-05:00

Hey, remember when Rutgers was 1-5 and looked like one of the worst BCS teams? Well, four games later they are 5-5 and actually have a chance at WINNING the Big East.

Are you kidding me?

UF vs USCe

2008-11-13T13:57:00.004-05:00

Not very many big games this weekend, so I'm just going to go over the Gator game. In Brief.

South Carolina has a very good defense. Statistically it is the best the Gators will probably face all year. There is just one problem with it: it's been built the old fashioned way. Linebackers that weigh 270 pounds? 240 pound safeties? This defense was built to stop the traditional SEC offenses, and for the most part it has, but we all know Florida doesn't run a traditional SEC offense. Steve Spurrier of all people should know what happens when you try to defend an offense built on speed with an old school defense. The CBs are a little lighter and faster, headlined by the man with the best name in the SEC, Captain Munnerlyn, but it won't be enough to make up for deficiencies in speed elsewhere.

On offense South Carolina has been its usual inconsistent, turnover prone self. Their leading rusher averages just 3.5 yards per carry and the team averages 2.9 ypc overall. The passing game is a little more potent, but not by much. The Gators have had some problems keeping mobile QBs in check (See Chris Nickson's performance in the second half last week), so Stephen Garcia's legs might be a problem, but outside of that the Gator defense should have no problems keeping the South Carlolina offense in check. Add on to this the fact that the Gators have blocked five South Carolina kicks in the past three meetings, and it is not looking to good for the 'Cocks.

Since the Ole Miss loss, Urban Meyer has commented several times on his team's increased professionalism and attention to detail. If the Gators show up prepared for this game, and I believe they will, it should be no contest.

Florida 42, South Carolina 10.

BCS + 1 = The Answer

2008-11-13T13:32:00.002-05:00

College football doesn't need a playoff. The FBS never has had a playoff, and a college football season would feel weird with one at the end. As many people have already pointed out, Iowa's win over Penn State would have been fairly insignificant if a playoff were in place. The only consequence of the loss for PSU would have been dropping a few spots in seeding. If you've followed college football for a while, you'd know that a large part of the appeal is that every game has a huge impact on the season. One loss? You still have a chance at the title but now you have to anxiously watch the teams in front of you and hope they lose. Two losses? You're done.

An eight (or god forbid sixteen) team playoff would mean a few teams could shrug off a loss or two as being no big deal. This is not good for the sport.

A plus one system (essentially a four team playoff) would have a playoff feel AND keep the importance of the regular season in tact. The most important aspect of a plus one is shifting the debate from who deserves to be #2 to who deserves to be #4. There have been a few seasons where more than two teams looked like they should have a shot at the title, but very rarely are there more than four teams who look worthy of a national title by the end of the season.

HOW ARE COLLEGE COACHES SO BAD WITH TIMEOUTS

2008-11-08T19:16:00.002-05:00

When going for the game winning/tying field goal, how hard is it to call timeout with 4 seconds or less left? Why would you call a timeout and leave enough time for the opposing team to have a chance with a kickoff return? I mean, how simple is this? And why can't any coach do it? We saw Mike Leach do it last week for Texas Tech, and now Kirk Ferentz did it this week.

Also, nice work on wasting two timeouts on one challenge, Les Miles. You deserved to lose that game, and you did.

The Football Gods Have Spoken

2008-11-08T19:01:00.002-05:00

Anyone who follows college football knows Penn State would have gotten beat down by either the SEC or Big 12 champ in the national title game, and the Big 10 would have ruined a third straight title game. Now that PSU is out of the picture, we can have the real championship game between the Big 12 and the SEC (or maybe USC if the Big 12 or SEC Champ finishes with 2 losses).

This match up is much more exciting because the two leagues have been battling all season for title of best conference. The SEC started the season #1, but with Tennessee and Auburn suffering through unforeseen down seasons, the Big 12 has risen up thanks to the amount of great quarterbacks in the league.

Adding to the potential story lines of an SEC vs. Big 12 match up is the probability that the QB of the Big 12 champ will be the Heisman winner. Imagine Florida vs. Texas with Heisman winners Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy dueling it out.

AD Simulator 2008

2008-11-03T17:12:00.002-05:00

With Fulmer being forced out, I thought it'd be a good time to go over the guidelines for firing your old coach and hiring a new one for a major college football program.

The most important part of this process is to know who your replacement is before you get rid of the old guy. If there is someone out there that you know will come in and do a better job than the person you currently have, then make the change. If not, you have to stick it out with your current coach until you can find his replacement.

There is nothing dumber in college football than change for the sake of change. The college game is not like the NFL where there are two or three different offensive and defensive philosophies, and all the players are suited to perform in these same philosophies. There are many different kinds of offenses and defenses in the college game, and you're going to need to recruit players specifically for your system. If you hire a new coach it is going to take him 3-4 years to get his players to run his system. If the guy you hire doesn't work out, then the next guy is going to need the same 3-4 year period. One bad hire can set you back almost a decade. So as I said, do not make the change unless you're certain you can get someone better.

Now, how do you find the right guy? All great college football coaches possess at least two of these three qualities:

1. Ability to assemble a high quality coaching staff

Coordinators and position coaches are more important in college than they are in the NFL. They handle the majority of recruiting and they are vital to the development of players. Bobby Bowden went from genius to senile old man when Mark Richt left, Phil Fulmer can't run an offense without David Cutcliffe, Tommy Tuberville is on the hot seat after making one bad coordinator hire, Randy Shannon found himself a defensive coordinator and the 'Canes went from 5-7 to bowl eligible with 3 games remaining.

2. Recruiting skills/Roster Management

Can you recruit great players? I am not just talking about the 5 star can't-miss prospects. You also must be able to identify the hidden gems like Michael Crabtree (2 stars), Brandon James (2 stars), and Chase Daniel (3 stars).

Another important part of this is recruiting for depth. You can go out and have the #1 recruiting class in the nation, but if that class has 5 RBs, 6 WRs, 8 LBs, and 3 Safeties, you did a bad job. You must recruit contributors at each position every year. You're not always going to be able to get All-American calibur athletes, but you need to get guys who can provide solid play until the All-Americans arrive. Depth is one of, if not the most important, aspects of any championship calibur team. It helps with injuries, it makes the starters better (they will have to constantly be improving if they don't want to get passed up on the depth chart), and it can be used to wear down opponents who lack depth. I would take a team with no-name players and quality depth at each position over a team with three or four stars and no depth.

3. Able to put together an excellent game plan and make effective game day adjustments

Pretty self-explanatory. Once you have the players, you have to know how to position them to be successful.

So now that we know what makes a good coach, let's see which possible replacements meet the criteria and which don't.

Tier 1 (Potentially meets all 3):

1. Chris Petersen
2. Mike Leach

Tier 2 (Could possibly meet 2 of 3):

3. Tim Brewster
4. Brian Kelly
5. Lane Kiffin
6. Kyle Wittingham

Tier 3 (Probable college head coach busts):

7. Will Muschamp
8. Jon Gruden
9. Bill Cowher

To be honest, I haven't done much research on all the potential coaching prospects, but these are the names that have been floating around. If at all possible, I think the major college programs should target head coaches at smaller programs that have had continued success. Coordinators are risky because you don't know how well they will transition to the head coach position. Ex-NFL head coaches are extremely risky because you can't succeed running a college program like an NFL franchise. What about Pete Carrol you ask? Carrol ran his NFL teams like a college program, which is why he wasn't that great as an NFL coach.

Random Thoughts From The Weekend

2008-11-03T09:50:00.004-05:00

1. Big 12 South vs. The SEC

The top of the polls has been dominated by the SEC and the Big 12 South this season. Any championship game that doesn't feature a team from the Big 12's South Division and the SEC Champ will be a disappointment. Who cares what the final records end up being, the BCS is supposed to put the two best teams in the championship game, and the two best teams this year will be the Big 12 and SEC Champions. These blowout championship games featuring one overmatched team against a proven contender are just not good for college football. Which leads me to my next thought...

2. Penn State and the Big 10

At the very least, the Big 10 needs to add a championship game. It is just not fair that these Big 10 teams can get away with playing one or two big games a year and then coast in to the BCS Championship Game. If Penn State wins out, which it should, it is going to end up getting pasted by whichever SEC or Big 12 team they face (The only team they could hang with for a little while is Alabama, but Alabama would still beat them convincingly in the end.)

The Big 10 won't add a championship game until they feel they absolutely need to. For one, they'd need to add one more team to even out the divisions. Outside of Notre Dame, I don't think the Big 10 is too excited about any possible additions to its conference. Also, do you put Ohio State and Michigan in the same division? Separate divisions? If they play in separate divisions, their annual rivalry game would sometimes be rendered meaningless since it would take place the week before the championship game, and you'd have to figure a good portion of the time OSU will be facing Michigan in that championship game (assuming RichRod can turn things around). If you put them in the same division, than the other Big 10 division could end up like the Big 12 North and lack star power.

3. If I Had A Heisman Vote...

It would look like this:

1. Graham Harrel
2. Colt McCoy
3. Tim Tebow
4. Sam Bradford
5. Michael Crabtree

The fifth spot could also go to Dez Bryant, who has better stats than Crabtree, but Crabtree produced arguably the signature play of this college football season, so he gets the nod for now. The two face off against each other this week in Lubbock.

4. Bye, Phil

I didn't really think Fulmer would be fired this season, but after UT's performance against South Carolina it looks like it is inevitable that the Dean of SEC Coaches will be getting the pink slip. The Vols don't just lose, they don't even compete. I didn't think UT had another 2005 in them, but they are well on there way to another losing season. Even worse for Vol fans, it doesn't look like next year will be any better, regardless of who the coach is.

Texas-Texas Tech

2008-10-31T15:03:00.002-04:00

Is this finally the week Texas goes down? I think so. Two things:

1. Texas has played their three previous big games either at home or on a neutral field, this one is on the road.
2. Texas is starting to wear down.

Texas' one weakness is its secondary, which does not exactly bode well when going up against Texas Tech and Michael Crabtree. Talent-wise, Texas of course has the advantage, but it is just too hard to beat a top 12 team four weeks in a row.

At this point you can bet that Texas is becoming both physically and mentally drained. Many are calling this the biggest game in Texas Tech history. Not exactly a great combo if you're a Texas fan. If this game were in Austin the 'Horns would be able to feed off the crowd for energy, but that is not going to be possible on the road.

Texas Tech's defense isn't going to stop Texas, but it will slow it down just enough for Texas Tech to come out with the win.

Texas Tech 49, Texas 45.

Florida-Georgia

2008-10-31T14:38:00.002-04:00

Not much needs to be said about this one. Georgia danced its way to a 42-30 win last season, in large part due to Knowshon Moreno running for 188 yards and 3 TDs. Everyone talks about the end zone celebration, but in reality that had little to do with the outcome of the game. After Georgia drew two unsportsmanlike penalties for the celebration, the Gators got the ball and scored within the next two plays.

Georgia was able to win the game because the Florida defense could not tackle, Tebow was playing with one arm, and the offense did not execute during crucial parts of the game. This year, Tebow is healthy and an improved Gator defense will be hyped to make up for last year's game.

These two teams are basically the same as last year. Georgia's offensive and defensive lines are not quite what they were a year ago due to some injuries, but the emergence of A.J. Green at the wideout position has led to an improved Georgia passing attack. Florida lost playmaker Bubba Caldwell, but has finally found a running game with Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey. The Florida defense returns everyone but Tony Joiner, who has been ably replaced by Ahmad Black (3 INTs, 2 of them returned for TDs).

This game falls on the shoulders of the Georgia defense. Georgia's offense needs to rely on Knowhson Moreno. Alabama was able to gash the Georgia D on the ground, keeping Moreno off the field, and by building a large first half lead they took Moreno completely out of the game and the Dawgs were never able to recover. Stafford is more than capable of making big plays, but he is too inconsistent to be solely relied on in a shootout. The Gator offense is far more explosive than Alabama's, and the Gators feature a running attack just as good as the Tide's. The Bulldogs will have to find a way to keep Florida out of the end zone early.

The Gator defense will surely load the box to stop Moreno. I wouldn't be surprised if we see true freshman Will Hill make a name for himself in this game (If he hasn't already with his seemingly endless amount of special teams tackles), as he is built with the perfect amount of size and speed to move up from his safety position and contain Moreno.

Georgia will keep this one close in the first half, but the Gators will break it open in the second half due to their depth along the offensive and defensive line. By the end of the third quarter the Dawgs will have to abandon the running game and rely on Stafford, and he won't be able to get it done.

Gators 45, Georgia 28.

"Ok Les Miles, you win" Addendum

2008-10-26T13:07:00.002-04:00

Earlier this year I made a post about Les Miles finally proving he belongs among the SEC's elite when it comes to coaches after LSU pulled out a last second victory over Auburn. Obviously two things have changed since that post:

1. Auburn has proven to be terrible.
2. LSU has lost two games by a combined 44 points.

No one really expected big things out of the offense after Ryan Perrilloux was booted off the team, but the defense has not been very impressive either. The personnel is still there, notably on the defensive line, but Bo Pelini is definitely missed. Miles has lost two games in each of his first three seasons, and he sits at two losses so far this season with Alabama still on the schedule.

The Big 12

2008-10-19T21:47:00.002-04:00

Sorry I haven't been updating more frequently. I will get back to it this week.

Many people are starting to believe that the Big 12 may be the best conference this year. This is in large part due to the crazy amount of points put up by some Big 12 offenses this year. Just look at the scores from this past weekend:

http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/scoreboard?confId=4&weekNumber=8&seasonYear=2008

The Big 12 has some great quarterbacks, and I do believe that the QB position is the most important one on the field, but we still must remember that offense may win games, but defense wins championships. The SEC still fields the best defenses in the country.

Tennessee and Auburn being down this year really hurts the SEC. These two teams' poor showing thus far is really why the Big 12 has crept into the Best Conference discussion. Also, Missouri, Ok State, and Kansas are much better this year than they have been historically. Nebraska is the only traditional power from the Big 12 having a down year.

To be honest, I am really not sure which is the best conference, and we probably won't know who will come out on top until bowl season. Just for fun, though, lets match up the best six teams from each conference:

Texas vs Alabama

Oklahoma vs Florida

Oklahoma State vs Georgia

Texas Tech vs LSU

Missouri vs Vanderbilt

Kansas vs Kentucky

Really, all of these games are a push except for OSU/UGA and Mizzou/Vandy. Oklahoma State is a nice story, but they lack the athletes up front to stay with Georgia. Vanderbilt is a nice story, but they have been winning with smoke and mirrors and Chase Daniel would pick them apart. Besides OSU/UGA and Mizzou/Vandy, only one of these matchups has the potential to become the shootout that is seen week in and week out in the Big 12, and that is OU/UF.

The main problem the Big 12 offenses will face against SEC defenses is imbalance. Of all the Big 12 teams listed, only Oklahoma State has a reliable run game. Texas relies too much on McCoy to run the ball, OU's DeMarco Murray is going through a sophomore slump, Mike Leach does not list running back as an offensive position, and Kansas only averages 3.6 ypc and 125 yards a game on the ground. Teams who cannot grind out yards on the ground will not have much success against the best defenses the SEC has to offer. Only three teams in the SEC (Florida, Georgia, Alabama) have shown they can both run and throw the ball. These three teams also just happen to be ranked in the Top 10.

So what did you learn by reading this post? Not a whole lot, which is kind of the point. No real answers will come until the season is finished. However, I would love to see the SEC champ take on the Big 12 champ for the national title this year.

Good Perspective on the Title Chase

2008-09-29T12:26:00.002-04:00

http://cfn.scout.com/2/795302.html

Pete Fiutak of CFN and Stewart Mandel of CNNSI are the best in the biz when it comes to talking college football. Fiutak posted his thoughts on all the upsets over the weekend, and I pretty much agree. His 7th point is particularly interesting and spot on.

OH THE IRONY

2008-09-28T09:55:00.004-04:00

The day after I outline what not to do in this season of shortened games, the Gators go right down the list and do all the things you need to do to lose to an inferior team. Not much analysis is needed here. The Gators lost the turnover battle 3-1 (they also had a punt that went for no yards, so essentially they turned the ball over four times), they performed poorly in kickoff coverage, and of course the nail in the coffin was the blocked extra point (even though an Ole Miss defender illegally hurdled a Florida offensive lineman to get the block, so there should have been a penalty against Ole Miss on the play).

There is plenty of blame to go around for the loss. Percy Harvin and Tim Tebow uncharacteristically put the ball on the ground. The defense allowed two big plays to go for touchdowns, including the game winning 85 yard TD pass on a 3rd and long. The offensive line once again was outplayed. Tebow missed a few passes that would have gone for touchdowns or big gains.

Here is how I see it for Gator fans:

Good News:

The loss was to an SEC West team, so your chances of winning an SEC and national title are the same today as they were before the loss. Win the rest of your games, and you're in. The pollsters are not going to be kind to the Gators this week; they will most likely end up somewhere in the 11-14 range. However, BYU is the only team with an above average chance of going undefeated, but there is no way they are getting into the title game unless all other BCS contenders have two or more losses. Oklahoma looks great, but Oklahoma always looks great in September. They will likely drop a game or two along the way, and probably in the same way the Gators lost this game. Penn State has a shot, but they still have to play OSU and Wisconsin. The Gators will get opportunities to defeat fellow SEC contenders LSU, Georgia, and Alabama (if 'Bama makes it to the SECCG). If there are a handful of one loss teams vying for a spot in the title game, and there will be, the SEC champ will get that spot.

Bad News:

I don't know if it's the Heisman, the offensive line, the loss of Bubba Caldwell and CI, or the playcalling, but Tebow has not been as dominant as he was last season. As stated above, there were multiple reasons why the Gators lost this game, but Tebow left several plays out on the field that could have won the Gators the game. Twice that I saw he had open receivers he should have identified immediately based on what the defense was showing, but instead he went elsewhere with the ball. On first and second down during the final set of downs on the last drive he had open receivers streaking towards the end zone but overthrew them both times. Tebow bashers love to argue that Tebow cannot read defenses. For most of his career they have been incorrect, as Tebow has always done an excellent job at making the right decisions. However, this was not the case in this game as Tebow definitely left some plays out on the field. Florida is not going to win the rest of its games if Tebow cannot elevate his play.

Jim Tartt seems to make or break this offensive line. The fifth year senior guard missed the Hawaii, Miami, and Ole Miss games. It did not matter against an outmatched Hawaii squad, but Miami and Ole Miss were able to disrupt the offense by going at Tartt's replacement, Marcus Gilbert. Tartt's only start this season, against Tennessee, is the only game that Florida has won the line of scrimmage on the offensive side of the ball. The Gators either need to get Tartt healthy, coach Gilbert up, or insert James Wilson. On those 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 plays where they run Tebow, they almost always go left towards Phil Trautwein and Jim Tartt. With Tartt out of the game they decided to go right on that pivotal 4th and 1 play against Ole Miss, and were subsequently stuffed.

The Gator game plan does not seem to fit this offensive line. When the Gators go with five wide outs, they run these long developing plays that ultimately become disrupted by pressure on Tebow. They need to run shorter routes, get the ball out quicker, and let their athletes make plays. The Gators can line up Percy Harvin, Louis Murphy, Aaron Hernandez, Riley Cooper, Deonte Thompson, Chris Rainey, Jeff Demps, Carl Moore and Brandon James in WR positions. You put any of these five guys on the field at one time, there is going to be a major mismatch somewhere that can be exploited IMMEDIATELY. They do not need to run some 15-20 yard route. Get the ball in their hands ASAP. Hit them on a WR screen, a 5 yard slant or out pattern, and let them make the play.

Outlook:

Obviously, the Gators cannot afford to lose focus again like they did this week. It was possible to overcome three turnovers in the past. If you turn over the ball three times this year, you are going to lose unless your opponent is being as generous as you are. The loss to Auburn in 2006 was the catalyst for that year's championship run. The team did not get dejected, they got pissed off. They turned up the intensity and came out focused for every game after that. These 2008 Gators need to do the same. Assuming the Gators don't come out and beat themselves like they did in this game, they should only face significant resistance against LSU and Georgia. Georgia certainly looked beatable last night. Alabama was able to put Georgia in a position where Matt Stafford had to win them the game, and of course he was not able to come through. The Gators will follow the same game plan.

LSU is a whole different animal, however. This is the game that will make or break the Gators season. This is not really a surprise; the winner of this game the past two years has gone on to win the national title. LSU is similar to Ole Miss. While Ole Miss gets great offensive and defensive line play, LSU's lines are dominant. Both Ole Miss and LSU will try to control the game with a power running game and an eventual big play through the air off of play action. If the Gators can get passed LSU, they have an excellent shot at being in Atlanta for the SECCG.

Clock Rules

2008-09-26T16:37:00.003-04:00

Last week I listed three reasons why I thought the mid-majors and other programs who have never had much success have all of a sudden become relevant in college football. Well add another reason to the list: the new clock rules.

As we saw last night, the most talented team on the field now has a smaller chance of winning due to the shortening of the game. Most teams get about 8 or 9 possessions a game now. Last night, USC had three 3 and outs and two turnovers. You just cannot afford to do that now no matter who the opponent is. If you don't score on a drive, you at least have to gain a field position advantage or else you may waste an entire half's worth of possessions. This is what happened to USC last night.

With the old rules, you could afford to turn the ball over a couple of times because you could make up for it later on. This is no longer the case. Each turnover reduces a team's chance to win drastically. Special teams are also at an all time high value wise. Superior teams could get away with shaky special teams in the past, but this is no longer the case. Even though special teams have always been important, you barely ever hear an analyst discuss a team's special teams when talking about their chance at winning championships. I believe that will change as long as these new clock rules are in place; however, I don't think the new clock rules will last long.

University of Southern Chokers

2008-09-26T00:45:00.002-04:00

For the third year in a row USC drops a game they had no business losing. Jacquizz Rodgers, a 5'6" 180 lbs. running back, ran through the USC defense all night. It was truly remarkable to see him squirm his way out of tackles. He didn't exactly juke defenders, and he certainly didn't run over them, but somehow he managed to avoid getting tackled and consistently picked up 4-5 yards. Despite having arm strength that wouldn't even be considered good for a high school QB, Oregon State signal caller Lyle Moevao threw two touch down passes against USC's highly regarded secondary.

On offense, Mark Sanchez had good numbers, but he was consistently pressured. USC put together two great drives to start the third quarter, but could do little else the rest of the night. Joe McKnight had a terrible night, fumbling the ball once and managing just 10 yards on 7 carries. Stafon Johnson and C.J. Gable had some success running the ball, but by the time USC got them on the field they were too far behind to run the ball.

In the end, I believe the new clock rules ultimately did USC in. Under the new rules, teams are losing one to two possessions a game. USC managed to run just 51 plays, and had the ball for only 22 minutes and 11 seconds. By the time USC found its rhythm on offense the game was all but over.

Greg Schianewb

2008-09-22T18:48:00.002-04:00

This is why you bolt your inferior program the second you are offered a top tier job. Schiano could be roaming the side lines at Miami or Michigan right now, but instead he's still chopping away at Rutgers. After two years of moderate success, the Scarlet Knights are off to a more Rutgers-like 0-3 start. Losing Ray Rice hurts, but most of Rutgers' problems have come on the defensive side of the ball.

Many people think Schiano is holding out for the Penn State job, but will Penn State want Schiano three years down the road if Rutgers goes 12-24 over that time period? No one cares what you did five years ago. It's starting to get to the point where no one even cares what you did LAST year. Schiano can probably get Rutgers back into the Top 25 in the next couple of years, mostly because the Big East is pretty weak. If he does, is he going to decline more job offers from major programs?

Weekend Observations

2008-09-22T09:01:00.006-04:00

1. UF vs UT

It was business as usual for the Gators. The defense and special teams dominated the game and the offense took advantage of the opportunities that resulted from the other two units' efforts. Urban Meyer's plan to win this season has been simple, but effective: win the field position battle by playing great defense and not turning the ball over.

The offensive statistics have not been spectacular, but that is because they haven't really had to be. The Gators simply have not had to go very far to score. For those thinking the offense has been struggling, just consider that of Florida's 31 offensive possessions (I did not count possessions that ended with the Gators running the ball to end the half/game) this season, they have only had to punt 13 times. Since the Gators have not turned the ball over yet this season, this means they are scoring on 58% of their drives. Sounds pretty good to me.

The Gators are not going to match last years offensive numbers for two reasons: the new clock rules and the Gator defense. The new clock rules have taken away one to two possessions per game. The Gator defense has eliminated the need to take extra risks on offense. Last season, the coaches felt the need to score on every possession. This season they are much more comfortable punting the ball and letting the defense get the ball back for the offense. Hard to argue with this since the defense has forced 9 turnovers in three games and has only given up a total of 19 points.

As for the Vols performance, you really don't have to look any further than the recruiting rankings the past four years. The Gators' average recruiting class rank is 5.25 (including three Top 3 finishes the past three years) according to Rivals. The Vols come in at 16.25. Phil Fulmer has never been a great X's and O's coach, and when Tennessee was having success in the 90s and the earlier part of the decade, it was mostly due to their talent advantage. With that advantage gone the Vols are just a middle of the road SEC East team.

2. Ok Les Miles, you win.

I never thought that LSU would still be an elite team four years into the Les Miles era. Once Saban's players were gone, I thought LSU would regress back to the Gerry DiNardo years. That has not been the case. While it would be nearly impossible to duplicate Saban's recruiting efforts at LSU, Mile has come pretty close. LSU had the most talented team in the SEC from 2005-2007. I would say Florida and Georgia have caught up to them this season, but they are certainly still right up there.

Miles' game day coaching has been as impressive as his recruiting. You keep waiting for his gambles to cost him a big game, but it seems they work out every time. Emotion plays a huge role in college football, and Miles always seems to know what he needs to do to give his team the emotional edge.

I also expected the defense take a step back this season due to Bo Pelini leaving for the Nebraska head coaching job, but LSU looks as formidable as ever on that side of the ball. If Miles can go 2-1 against Florida, Georgia, and Alabama he will find himself in another SEC Championship Game playing for a spot in Miami.

3. Maybe Georgia should have traveled out west to play someone from the MWC.

Georgia manhandled an over matched Arizona State team. Georgia controlled the line of scrimmage the entire night, allowing Arizona State to rush for just 4 yards on 19 carries while the Dawgs were able to pound out 176 yards on the ground. This has become a fairly predictable stat line when top teams from the SEC take on out of conference opponents. It looks like Georgia will only be tested from inside the SEC this year.

There is a reason why the SEC had five of the top ten teams in last week's AP Poll. Every other conference except for the Big 12 is awful this season. Really, how do you even try to decipher the BCS conference rankings for the 3-6 slots? Here is a breakdown of each BCS conference and the amount of teams they have ranked:

Big East: 1 (#14 USF)
Pac 10: 2 (#1 USC, #22 Oregon)
ACC: 2 (#15 Wake Forest, #19 Clemson)
Big 10: 4 (#8 Wisconsin, #12 Penn St, #13 Ohio St, #21 Illinois)
Big 12: 5 (#2 Oklahoma, #5 Missouri, #7 Texas, #9 Texas Tech, #18 Kansas)
SEC: 6 (#3 Georgia, #4 Florida, #6 LSU, #10 Alabama, #16 Auburn, #25 Vanderbilt)

Because the Big East, Pac 10, and ACC didn't feel like fielding many Top 25 teams this season, mighty VANDERBILT, who has forever been the worst program in the SEC has cracked the Top 25. Pac 10 semi-contenders Arizona State, Oregon, and Cal have turned out to be duds. Hard to blame Oregon for falling short because of their QB situation, but their defense has also been woeful. In the Big 10, Ohio State and Illinois lost big to the only decent teams they've played this season, so they are only ranked because of their preseason rankings. Same goes for Clemson in the ACC and Kansas in the Big 12. Penn State has not yet played anyone decent.

4.The Jimbo Fisher Era has begun!

Some excitement was building in Tallahassee after the Seminoles demolished two FCS schools to open the season. Jimbo's offense was starting to take shape. 'Noles starting QB Christian Ponder displayed old school FSU cockiness by guaranteeing a victory. The Doak was rocking as Chief Osceola ran out to mid field to plant the flaming spear into the ground. The Seminole team gathered together and jumped up and down at midfield with anticipation.

And then Ponder was picked off on his first passing attempt and the 'Noles reverted back to the same team we have seen for the past seven years. You can't really even say they reverted because what they showed on offense was even worse than what we have become accustomed to seeing out of FSU. Seven turnovers and a 12-3 loss to Wake Forest. There were many negatives for Florida State in this game: the offensive line is worse than it's ever been, still no quarterback or running game, the best offensive play they have is still the jump ball. The worst part, though, had to be the realization that the Seminoles could not defeat a Wake Forest team that did not bring their A, B, or C game. Wake Forest did everything they could to keep them in the game and they still could not muster more than three points.

Bill Stewart? C'mooooooooooooooooon

2008-09-18T12:27:00.008-04:00

This is what happens when you hire a coach based on his performance in one game.

His clock management at the end of the 4th quarter last night reminded me of when I forget to pay attention to the clock in NCAA Football and the half or game suddenly ends on me in the middle of a scoring drive.

Dying

2008-09-18T12:27:00.007-04:00

I have been sick since Tuesday and it's only getting worse. Not going to be able to make as many UF/UT posts as I'd like, and it looks like I won't be able to go to Knoxville for the game. :(

Anyway, here are some interesting notes on the game:

The Vol offense is averaging just 13 points a game against the Gators since Urban Meyer took over.
The Vols have not had a run go for more than 6 yards in the last two meetings.
Urban Meyer will be going up against his third different Vol offensive coordinator in just four years.
Vol QB Jonathan Crompton has thrown more interceptions (3) than completions (2) when facing third and ten or longer.
Vol RB Arian Foster is averaging 7.8 ypc this season, the Gator defense is giving up only 2.

As much as it looks like this should be an easy win for the Gators, it is never easy in Knoxville. Lets take a look at the Gators' last five trips to Rocky Top:

1998: Gators lose in overtime on a missed field goal. Vols go on to win the national championship.
2000: Gators win on Jabar Gaffney's last second touchdown catch. I am willing to bet 90% of Vol Nation still does not believe that was a catch.
2002: Gators win big as Casey Clausen and co. fumble away the game.
2004: Gators lose on last second field goal. The field goal never should have happened as the refs mistakenly stopped the clock with 57 seconds left a couple plays earlier.
2006: Gators come from 10 behind in the second half to win 21-20 on a scoring drivelate in the fourth quarter.

The Gators have relied on special teams and run defense to beat the Vols in the past. You can expect more of the same this season. The Gators will have two or three costly penalties and a missed field goal that will allow the Vols to hang around until the fourth quarter, but ultimately they will prevail.

Gators 28, Vols 14.

Tennessee Week - Florida Offense vs. Tennessee Defense

2008-09-18T12:27:00.003-04:00

Percy Harvin is back at full speed and Senior guard Jim Tartt will be back after missing the first two games with a shoulder injury, so there are no more excuses for the Gator offense this week.

The strength of the Vol defense is their secondary, led by safeties Dee Morley and Eric Berry. The secondary looked great in the first half against UCLA, intercepting four passes, but disappeared in the second half when they allowed UCLA's wide receivers to sit in soft spots of their zone defense. Third string QB Kevin Craft was able to get UCLA 17 second half points to send the game into overtime.

The Vols have to replace two linebackers, including Top 10 draft pick Jerod Mayo, and both defensive ends in the front 7. The Vols have done decently against the run, allowing only 2.4 yards per carry.

The Gators return just about everyone on an offense that scored 45 points (The defense and special teams scored the other 14) against the Vols last season. The only major losses are WR Andre Caldwell (Graduated/Drafted) and Cornelious Ingram (ACL). There are a number of talented wide receivers ready to take over Caldwell's spot, and Aaron Hernandez has done a great job filling in for Ingram.

As always, the key to stopping the Gator offense is to put pressure on Tebow. Tennessee defensive coordinator John Chavis is not known for his aggressiveness, and more often than not he relies soley on the front four to create pressure. This worked well for the Vols when Albert Haynesworth was anchoring the defensive line, but it has not gone so well in recent years. Chavis' zone defense schemes will be a welcome change to Tim Walton's blitz defense that Miami used to attack the Gator offensive line. I believe Tebow will have more than enough time to sit in the pocket and find his receivers.

This was supposed to be the year that the Gators finally saw some production out of the running back position. The RBs lived up to the hype against Hawaii, but Miami was able to shut down anyone running the ball not named Tim Tebow or Percy Harvin. Florida seemed to sabotage themselves by running light weight RBs Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps between the tackles. Emmanuel Moody did not get any carries; however, Meyer has said that Moody will get some touches against the Vols. I really have no idea how this will play out during the game. If I had to guess, I'd say Rainey, Demps, and Moody will combine for about 10 carries for 50-60 yards. Senior RB Kestahn Moore will also get a few carries.

The Vols return three starters from last year's secondary and 2006 starter Dee Morley. They will have their hands full against the Gators, who have one of the top wide receiving corps in the nation. Straight up, the Vol DBs might be able to hang with the Gators, however the true strength of the Gators passing attack is that they are able to rotate multiple four and five star athletes in and out of the lineup. Look for the Vol secondary to wear down as the game goes on and for Florida OC Dan Mullen to find holes in the Vol secondary just like UCLA's Norm Chow was able to do.

TENNESSEE WEEK

2008-09-15T22:26:00.003-04:00

I will be posting my thoughts on the game throughout the week.

Attack of the Mid-Majors

2008-09-15T17:52:00.002-04:00

The gap between the haves and the have nots has slowly been increasing over the years in college football. One glance at this week's rankings and you'll notice that there are 3 Non-BCS teams in the coaches poll (Fresno State is ranked just outside of the Top 25 after their close loss to Wisconsin) and 4 in the AP.

The Mountain West Conference went 4-0 against the Pac 10 this weekend, and are 5-0 overall against the BCS conference this year. BYU annihilated UCLA 59-0. East Carolina has already knocked off two top 25 teams. We've seen the little guys knock off Pittsburgh and Oklahoma in BCS bowls over the past four years. Really, there are too many upsets to even mention in one space.

So that leaves the question... how are these teams pulling it off? I believe there are three reasons.

1. The talent pool is much deeper

Football is clearly the number one sport in America. Kids growing up now are more likely to drift towards football, especially in states like Florida and Texas. Basketball is really the only other sport that competes for their attention. With the 85 scholarship limit, the top programs can't sign all the talent, so it must go elsewhere.

2. Expanded coverage

A big selling point to recruits is television coverage. Kids want to play on TV. Fifteen years ago there were not nearly as many college football games on television as there are today. You can sit in front of the TV from noon until 2 AM and always have at least two games to watch. Television exposure is no longer limited to just the big time programs.

3. The spread offense

As we saw in the Appalachian State/Michigan game last year, the spread offense is a great talent equalizer. A less talented team is not going to win a game if their best guys are constantly going up against the superior team's best guys. In more conventional offenses, your best offensive skill players are going to be matched up against the defense's best players. In the spread offense you can create mismatches and have your best guy go against a 3rd or 4th string defensive back or linebacker. Eventually defenses will catch up with the spread scheme, and it may already be happening, but for now any spread offense has a chance to put up big numbers against a more talented defense as long as it as two or three playmakers.

What did this guy have for lunch?

2008-09-14T12:49:00.000-04:00

Observations From This Week's Games

2008-09-14T09:34:00.005-04:00

1. John David Booty was not a very good QB

USC "struggled" the past two years to back to back 11-2 Pac 10 and Rose Bowl champion seasons. Many blamed this on the Trojan's inability to create big plays and support the defense when it was having an off game. Looks like we found the problem. While John David Booty was good but not great (63% completion rating, 23-10 TD/INT ratio, 138 QB rating in 2007), Mark Sanchez has been fantastic with pretty much the same exact supporting cast (68% completion rating, 7-2 TD/INT ratio, 166 QB rating).

2. Ohio State still can't block or tackle anyone outside the Big 10

The #1 reason Ohio State has been embarrassed in their last three match ups against Top 2 teams is their inability to protect the quarterback. Florida, LSU, and USC all had talented defensive lines with lots of depth that manhandled OSU's offensive line. Against Florida, Ohio State was in the game until Florida's defense pressured Troy Smith into throwing an interception, stopped Ohio State on a 4th and 1, and forced Smith to fumble deep in OSU territory. These three plays lead to 17 points that put Ohio State away for good. Ohio State was actually leading LSU by 10 until the Tiger backfield started getting to Todd Boeckman and forced him to throw two INTs. Last night Boeckman was constantly under pressure. Funny enough, however, Boeckman's most costly mistake of the night (the 2nd quarter INT returned for a touchdown by Rey Maualuga) came when he had time to throw.

Even though it seems like OSU's defense has given up a ton of points in these games, a lot of the opposing team's scoring has come from taking advantage of OSU's offensive mistakes. That being said, OSU's defense does have trouble keeping up with speedy playmakers like Percy Harvin and Joe McKnight. Fortunately, or unfortunately, for OSU 99% of other defenses have the same problem.

3. Matt Stafford is going to make millions of dollars and I don't know why

The CBS broadcast of the Georgia vs. South Carolina game was the last straw for me. Listening to Verne Lundquist and Todd Blackledge gush over this kid is like listening to Special Ed teachers praise their retarded pupils for going an entire day without pissing their pants. Are you ready for the future Number One draft pick's current career college stats?

56% completion rating, 30-23 TD/INT ratio, 130 QB rating.

If you notice above, I posted John David Booty's 2007 stats and, I dunno about you, but I'd take Booty (who ended up a 5th round draft pick in a not-so-amazing draft for QBs). The breaking point for me came when Blackledge excused Stafford's mediocre stats because of all the deep shots he takes down field. Hmm... would you rather have a QB who completes 65%+ of his passes, doesn't make many mistakes, can move the chains, and will lead your team to 3-4 touchdown drives a game, OR the guy who completes 56% of his passes and maybe every once in a while will complete a 40 or 50 yard pass.

4. DOWN GOES CHARLIE!

Can't believe this isn't on YouTube yet. Maybe if Weiss dropped a few pounds he'd be agile enough to get out of the way. The best part of this story is he is refusing to rehab it. REPLACE ONE OF MY SIX MEALS A DAY WITH A WORK OUT REGIMEN?! GRRAAAARRRRR I'M ANGRY BRING ME MORE CHEESEBURGERS.

5. Auburn 3, Mississippi State 2

Auburn took the first of a 3 game series against Mississippi State 3-2 today... whoops SEC baseball doesn't start for another 5 months. Looks like Auburn is handling the transition to the spread offense about as well as Michigan is.

6. Todd Reesing is a bad ass

I hadn't really gotten a chance to watch him play until this past Friday night. He is one of the best I've ever seen at scrambling, planting his feet, and then delivering an accurate ball down field. Seems like USF should have had about 3 more sacks on the guy but he was able to elude the tacklers and then get the ball out in a hurry. Too bad he won't have an NFL career because he has the looks and size of a leprechaun.

7. Don't mean to toot my own horn, but...

Predictions:
Oregon 38, Purdue 24
Georgia 24, South Carolina 13
South Florida 31, Kansas 27
Wisconsin 20, Fresno State 17
USC 31, Ohio State 14

Results:
Oregon 32, Purdue 26
Georgia 14, South Carolina 7
South Florida 37, Kansas 34
Wisconsin 13, Fresno State 10
USC 35, Ohio State 3

Thoughts and Predictions on the Five Biggest Games of the Weekend

2008-09-11T18:06:00.006-04:00

5. Oregon @ Purdue

In the second best Pac 10 v Big 10 matchup of the weekend, two potent offenses face off in what promises to be a high scoring game. Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart are gone, but the Ducks have still managed to score 110 points in their first two games. Nate Costa originally won the starting job for Oregon, but he was injured during the preseason and will miss all of 2008. Justin Roper, who threw for four touchdowns against South Florida in last year's Sun Bowl, takes over and has done a decent job so far. The real stars of the Oregon offense have been running backs Jeremiah Johnson and LeGarette Blount. Oregon currently ranks fourth in the nation with 332 yards per game rushing.

Purdue on the other hand returns 2008 All-Big 10 quarterback Curtis Painter. Painter will be going up against a talented Oregon secondary that features one of college football's best safeties, Patrick Chung. Painter is a smart QB who can throw with good velocity and accuracy, however the Oregon back four should be able to keep his WRs in check.

The Oregon offense will control the game and the Duck's secondary will be just disruptive enough to slow down the Purdue passing attack.

Oregon 38, Purdue 24

4. Georgia @ South Carolina

It is always entertaining when the Ol' Ball Coach matches up against the Dawgs. Spurrier was able to knock off Georgia early last season before Knowshon Moreno emerged and UGA caught fire at the end of last season.

This is going to be a battle of defenses as South Carolina QB's Chris Smelley and Tommy Beecher have combined to throw 6 interceptions in their first two games. Georgia's offense has been impressive early, but it has yet to face a defense with a pulse. Georgia is averaging 237 yards per game on the ground, and it is no secret that stopping RBs Moreno and King is the key to shutting down the Georgia offense. South Carolina has done a decent job so far, allowing only 112 yards per game against two BCS opponents. If South Carolina can keep Georgia under 150 yards rushing and under 20 points, Spurrier has a shot at his second consecutive upset of Richt's Georgia squad.

The problem is, South Carolina just does not have enough on offense. South Carolina's best receiver, Kenny McKinley, will likely miss the game with a sore hamstring, and the South Carolina offensive line has had a tough time handling the pass rush so far. Even if the South Carolina defense can hold its own against Georgia, it is likely that the Bulldogs will be able to get into SC's backfield and force some QB mistakes.

Since the game is in Columbia, the Gamecocks will keep it close, but in the end they won't have the offensive fire power to overcome a more complete Georgia team.

Georgia 24, South Carolina 13

3. Kansas @ South Florida

Mark Mangino and Jim Leavitt were both once assistants on Bill Snyder's Kansas State staff in the early 90's. Last season both coaches put their respective programs on the map. USF once again has a chance to vault up the ratings by defeating a Top 15 opponent at home on a Friday night (Last year's victim was West Virginia).

The real match up here is the KU offense versus the USF defense. Former USF defensive line coach Dan McCarney packed his bags and left for Gainesville to replace departed UF defensive line coach Greg Mattison. The USF defensive line, and last year's breakout star George Selvie in particular, have had a tough time generating the amount of pressure on the QB that they did last season under McCarney's tutelage, but they have been stout against the run. Kansas has struggled mightily running the ball this season, managing only 3.7 ypc on the ground.

Kansas is also breaking in a pair of new tackles, so this may be the opportunity Selvie and Co. have been looking for to get going. If they can get to Kansas QB Todd Reesing they have an excellent shot at coming up with the home upset.

The USF offense appears to be improved, with a more mature Matt Grothe leading the attack. The Kansas defense is no slouch, though, giving up only 406 total yards in the first two games. They have not seen an offense the caliber of USF's yet.

South Florida 31, Kansas 27

2. Wisconsin @ Fresno State

Wisconsin has gotten off to slow starts in each of their first two games, and now they must travel to the west coast to face off against a very good Fresno St. squad who many believe could contend for a BCS bowl bid this year. Both squads are very similar in that they both rely on running the ball and playing good defense, while making just enough plays in the passing game to keep the chains moving.

Fresno State was able to shutdown the Ray Rice-less Rutgers running attack, while Wisconsin's defense has been dominant against Akron and Marshall. I believe the key to the game will be depth, and Wisconsin's ability to wear down the Fresno St. front seven will win them the game.

Wisconsin 20, Fresno State 17

1. Ohio State @ USC

This is the game most college football fans have been waiting for since LSU demolished OSU in last season's national championship game. The two schools have combined to play for or win the last six national championships, but oddly enough they have not faced each other since 1990.

Even though Mark Sanchez lit up the Virginia secondary in week one, I am still not sold on the USC passing game. Sanchez himself commented that he had so much time in the pocket he could have cooked some steaks. That won't happen against OSU. Everyone knows about the infinite amount of RBs Southern Cal has, but sometimes I think this hurts more than it helps as none of the backs ever get into any kind of rhythm. I think USC will try to keep the ball in the hands of Joe McKnight and CJ Gable for this game. They will have to use the run to setup the pass against OSU's talented secondary.

With or without Beanie Wells, OSU's offense has not fared well against defenses with elite speed like USC's. OSU may be able to run the ball against USC's reloaded defensive line, but I don't see how they are going to be able to make any plays throwing the ball. Eventually USC will be able to slow down the OSU running attack, and once they do that their is not much left for OSU to turn to. Like their QB, the OSU wide receivers are solid, but not great. If Pryor is kept on the bench, and I don't see how Tressel can keep him on the bench if they don't have Wells to carry the running game, OSU will struggle to score points.

I am sure by now Ohio State is tired of hearing they can't win the big game, but I don't think it will matter. Everyone insists that this Ohio State team is just as talented as the other contenders, but it seems like every time Ohio State has to prove that on the field they fail.

USC 31, Ohio State 14

Heeeeere comes the college football blog!

2008-09-11T13:51:00.001-04:00

Welcome to the initial post of my college football blog, Out of the Tunnel. Not a day (probably not an hour) goes by that I don't think about college football or something college football related, so I thought it would be a good idea to put my thoughts down in this blog.

I am a big time Florida Gator fan and a fan of the SEC in general (Yes, I'm one of those idiots chanting S-E-C at the end of each SEC victory against a non-conference opponent). However, I will try to put all biases aside and take an objective look at major stories and match ups. This should be fun.