Team Marve vs. Randy Shannon, Round One

Starting (kind of) University of Miami quarterback Robert Marve has decided to transfer from Da U.

It seems like the main reason for the transfer is Randy Shannon's refusal to promise Marve the starting job for the 2009 season. And you know what? Shannon has every right to do that. Marve did not exactly separate himself from backup QB Jacory Harris. The two were rotated all season and Harris finished with more TDs, less INTs, and a higher QB rating.

The only thing that really makes this transfer noteworthy is the Marve family's questioning of Shannon's character. They were upset that Shannon decided to wait 8 months to suspend Marve for the 2008 season opener. No one knows where Marve will transfer to because Shannon has pretty much barred him from playing anywhere in the Southeast.

Here are the Marve family quotes:

"(Randy Shannon) is preventing Robert from playing for any team in the ACC and also trying to prevent him from playing for any SEC team and any team in Florida, all the teams," said Marve's father, Eugene. "It's vindictive. If he's that worried about the talent of Robert Marve he would have treated him with better respect.

"I had to get out," Marve told the AP from his family's home in Tampa. "I just decided that I can't play for Coach Shannon."

``Shannon gave him the release with that stipulation. I've never heard of that before. The ACC [ban] is reasonable. The SEC is ridiculous. There are a lot of schools in the SEC that never see Miami. This has gone to a personal attack against my son, and it will not go without challenge. This is a shameful day that Shannon has brought to the University of Miami. This is a shameful day for Randy Shannon and what he represents, and every recruit should watch out for what you're seeing happening to Robert Marve."

Some quotes from Marve's coach, including his vow that no player of his will ever play for UM again, can be found here:

http://www.fannation.com/truth_and_rumors/view/83434-tampa-high-school-coach-rips-miamis-shannon

So what does this all mean? Probably nothing. I can't really see UM's offense ever reaching a championship level under Randy Shannon no matter who he benches, promotes, whatever. Shannon is a defensive guy and it seems like he doesn't have any idea how to run an offense.

When he took over the UM job he tried to get Mike Shula and Dirk Koetter to run his offense. They both turned him down and he had to settle for Patrick Nix. Of course, Nix was a complete flop and now Shannon will have to go through a couple more candidates who will most likely turn him down before he settles on another offensive coach no one else really wants.

Excuse me sir, I could use your assistance.

Looks like we have some coordinator moves to go over.

#1 - Gus Malzahn / Auburn OC

Love the pick here.  Malzahn was the OC for Arkansas when they went to the SEC Championship game in 2006 and he called the plays for a Tulsa team that ranked second in the nation in points and yardage per game this season.  

He is one of those guys who can adjust his system to the talent that he has.   This should setup some interesting Malzahn vs. Houston Nutt battles in the future.  I didn't think it was going to happen, but if Urban Meyer wanted to hire him as UF's OC I wouldn't have complained.  Speaking of that job...

#2 - Steve Addazio / Florida OC

Not a new hire, but a promotion.  Addazio serves as the offensive line coach and will now be the head play caller also.  Really, Meyer could have hired my dog as the new OC and I wouldn't be able to argue with the selection.  His track record is pristine.  Every OC Meyer has had has gone on to a head coaching position.  Considering Addazio was already in consideration for some head coaching spots (Syracuse most notably) I think Addazio will do just fine.  

#3 - THE CHIEF John Chavis / LSU DC

This is either going to be a great or disastrous hire.  LSU flourished under Bo Pelini's aggressive defensive game plans, but then everything went to hell this year when they tried to run Pelini's (Pelini is now the head coach at Nebraska) scheme using a co-coordinator system.

Chavis is the opposite of Pelini, he'd rather sit back in a zone and eliminate the possibility of the big play.  Chavis has been very successful when he had dominant defensive lineman like Albert Haynesworth at Tennessee, but his defenses have become very average when he has lineman who can't get in the backfield.  

You'd think Chavis would be a great fit for LSU with the recent talent LSU has had on the defensive line, but unfortunately it seems like the talent well is drying up.  Les Miles has had some highly ranked recruiting classes, but so far they have not lived up to their ranking.  If LSU can find itself another Glenn Dorsey or two they'll be ok, if not... Chavis and Miles will both probably be out of a job in the next two years.

PLAYOFFS

I know this is a college football blog but I have to acknowledge what the Dolphins did this year.  From 1-15 to 11-5 and AFC East champs.  Chad Pennington goes into Jersey and whoops up on Favre and the Jets.

Murray Out / Mullen In

Two interesting developments for the national championship game today...

1. DeMarco Murray Out

Starting Oklahoma running back and kick returner DeMarco Murray will miss the game. I don't think this will hurt Oklahoma's running game too much, as backup Chris Brown actually has rushed for more yards than Murray. Where it's going to hurt is on kick returns and receptions out of the backfield. Murray had a Percy Harvin like ability to line up in the back field and then motion into the slot and catch passes. With Chris Brown in the game, the Gators won't have to guess as much as they would if Murray was in the game.

2. Dan Mullen Will Call Plays

Not sure how I feel about this. If Meyer thinks it's best, then I can't really argue. I'd imagine Meyer demanded that Mullen stay in Gainesville and concentrate solely on the BCS Championship game. Even if this is the case, I can't help but feel that Mullen at least will be somewhat distracted.

9. Chick-fil-A Bowl - Georgia Tech vs. LSU

An interesting matchup because the two teams are heading in different directions. No one expected much out of Georgia Tech, but they managed to go 9-3 and made a late push for the ACC Championship. LSU started out in the top 10 but ended up 7-5 due to inexperienced QB play and a surprisingly awful defense.

LSU has one advantage in this game because they have a whole month to prepare for Georgia Tech's unusual rushing attack. Will it matter though? LSU was supposed to have one of the best defensive lines in college football, but in big games against Florida and Georgia the defensive line wasn't much of a factor.

On the other side of the football, LSU will have to coach up freshman QB Jordan Jefferson to go against a decent Georgia Tech defense. Jefferson has made less mistakes than Jarett Lee, but he hasn't really been able to move the offense either.

Top 10 Bowl Games

Over the next ten days I will take a look at what I think are the ten best bowl games, starting with...

#10. Hawaii Bowl - Hawaii vs. Notre Dame

This one creeps in at the #10 spot for two reasons:

1. If Notre Dame can't end its nine game bowl losing streak against Hawaii then it might actually be possible that they never win another bowl game again.

2. Cheeseburger Charlie is officially on the one-more-bad-season-and-you're-gone hot seat. No one is going to be saying the Irish are back if they win this game, but at least a win will be something to build on going into next year's do-or-die season.

As for the game itself... it should be pretty close, because these two teams are the definition of mediocrity. Neither of them do anything particularly well, but they are also not totally inept.

The Cycle Is Nearly Complete

As recently as the beginning of this season it looked like the SEC was set to maintain it's reputation as the best conference in college football for quite some time. The league boasted five national championship winning coaches (Steve Spurrier, Phil Fulmer, Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Les Miles), one coach who led his team to an undefeated season (Tommy Tuberville), an SEC championship caliber coach (Mark Richt), two proven winners (Houston Nutt, Bobby Petrino), and two coaches capable of making both Kentucky and Vanderbilt respectable (Rich Brooks, Bobby Johnson). The only weak link was Sylvester Croom at Mississippi State.

Fast forward to December 13th and the SEC coaching landscape looks a lot different. Here is how I think each school's stock has changed since the beginning of the season:

Alabama - Stock: Way Up

Nick Saban has turned Bama around in just his second season. Alabama's stock has risen more than any other school's this season. One of the few bright spots in the SEC this season.

Arkansas - Stock: Unchanged

The record will say that Arkansas' stock took a bit of a hit this season, but that is not the case. Arkansas had to replace two first round running back talents and much of the defense. Bobby Petrino's young team improved as the season went on and with Ryan Mallet ready to take over the QB position next season, Arkansas may be ready to make some noise in the west.

Auburn - Stock: Way Down

Gene Chizik replaced Tommy Tuberville. This is a real head scratcher. Really, Auburn's president should fire the AD and Chizik tomorrow. Just an unexcusable hire. What an absolute train wreck.

Florida - Stock: Up

Urban Meyer has proven that he will have the Gators in contention for national titles for years to come. It might be hard to believe, but this is just the beginning. This Florida team is still very young. If Brandon Spikes does not leave early, the Gators will return every starter from what is already a dominant defense.

Georgia - Stock: Down

You can blame the disappointing season on injuries, but true championship caliber teams have enough depth to overcome some personnel losses. Richt may never have a better QB/RB/WR trio than Stafford/Moreno/Green.

Kentucky - Stock: Unchanged

With a respectable 6-6 season, Rich Brooks has shown that he can keep Kentucky competitive in the SEC.

LSU - Stock: Way Down

I would have been willing to give Miles a pass on this season because of the Perilloux ordeal, but the QB position was not the only reason LSU stunk this season. The defense was routinely lit up and the Tigers managed to lose three games at home. Miles is going to have to turn it around quick or he'll be gone in two years.

Mississippi - Stock: Up

Houston Nutt took a team that did not win a single SEC team last year and led them to victories in Baton Rouge and Gainesville. Ed Orgeron recruited well and now Nutt is reaping the benefits. If Nutt can maintain this kind of talent in Oxford he might be able to win an SEC West and maybe even an SEC championship.

Mississippi State - Stock: Unchanged

This is definitely the most intriguing of all the new hires. MSU was in desperate need of some offense, so they went out and hired arguably the best offensive coordinator in the SEC. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. Did Meyer make Mullen? Was he only successful because of Tebow and Harvin? If Mullen is the real deal, will he have all the tools necessary to be successful at MSU?

South Carolina - Stock: Down

The 'Ol Ball Coach has gotten decent play out of his defense, but he has yet to get the offense up to Spurrier standards. It is looking less and less likely that Spurrier will be able to accomplish any of his goals at South Carolina.

Tennessee - Stock: Way Down

Even though Tennessee was picked to finish third in the SEC East this year, no one saw 5-7 coming. Fulmer is gone. Kiffin may or may not turn out to be a good hire, but you'd have to think that Tennessee needed to get a bigger name than this. When the fanbase is more excited about the assistants being brought in than the actual head coach... there might be a problem.

Vanderbilt - Stock: Slightly Up

Vandy finally gains bowl eligibility.

Conference Outlook:

The SEC is starting to look like the Big 12 did earlier this decade. Two dominant teams (Florida and Alabama) and then a bunch of middle of the road and lower tiered teams. LSU and Georgia are going to need to step it up over the next few seasons or Meyer and Saban are going to run away with the conference.

All-Overrated / All-Disappointment Team

The definitive list of guys who get way too much hype for no reason at all. Not all positions will be filled.

Offense

QB - Matthew Stafford, Georgia
RB - Javon Ringer, Michigan State
RB - Beanie Wells, Ohio State
RB - James Davis, Clemson
WR - Brian Robiskie, Ohio State
WR - Aaron Kelly, Clemson

Defense

DE - George Selvie, South Florida
DT - Ricky Jean-Francois, Louisiana State
LB - James Laurinaitis, Ohio State
CB - Malcom Jenkins, Ohio State
S - Myron Rolle, Florida State
S - Rashad Johnson, Alabama

My First Team All-America Selections

If this list is a little SEC heavy... TOO BAD IT'S MY LIST

Offense

QB - Tim Tebow, Florida
RB - Shonn Greene, Iowa
RB - Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma State
WR - Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech
WR - Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State
TE - Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma
OT - Michael Oher, Mississippi
OG - Mike Pouncey, Florida
C - Antoine Caldwell, Alabama
OG - Duke Robinson, Oklahoma
OT - Andrew Smith, Alabama
All-Purpose - Percy Harvin, Florida

Defense

DE - Jerry Hughes, Texas Christian
DT - Terrence Cody, Alabama
DT - Peria Jerry, Mississippi
DE - Everette Brown, Florida State
LB - Brandon Spikes, Florida
LB - Rey Maualuga, Southern California
LB - Mark Herzlich, Boston College
CB - D.J. Moore, Vanderbilt
CB - Janoris Jenkins, Florida (NOT a homer pick... the kid is GOOD)
S - Eric Berry, Tennessee
S - Taylor Mays, Southern California

Special Teams

K - Graham Gano, Florida State
P - Chaz Henry, Florida
KR - Jeremy Maclin, Missouri,
PR - Brandon James, Florida

Random Thoughts

1. Bad Idea 'Barn

I mentioned in a post earlier in the season that the number one rule in coaching changes is to make sure you have someone lined up who you are confident is better than the guy you have. Change for the sake of change works in baseball and basketball, but it is a terrible idea in college football. For one thing, it ruins that year's recruiting class (I believe Auburn has already had five recruits decommit) and you also have to stick it out with the guy at least 3 or 4 years even if it's clear a couple games into the first season that he isn't going to work out.

That being said, who is Auburn going to get that they know will be better than Tuberville? How many coaches in the country could go undefeated at Auburn like Tuberville did in 2004? It is even more unlikely now that the new coach will have to go up against Saban for the local recruits.

2. Tebow vs. Hansbrough

Pete Fiutak wrote a funny article comparing Tim Tebow to Tyler Hansbrough in terms of motivation. Here's the link:

http://cfn.scout.com/2/819659.html

It's pretty funny and I think dead on. As a Gator fan I enjoy Tebow's motivational techniques, but I'm sure to all other fans of college football it's as annoying as Tyler Hansbrough's celebrations are to me.

3. Heisman Trophy Race

For those interested, here is a website that tracks the Heisman Trophy Race:

http://www.stiffarmtrophy.com/

It was started six years ago and has picked the winner correctly each year.

4. USC Assistants

Steve Sarkisian? Really? The same guy who has been in charge of USC's underperforming offense the past few years? Here is a tip for future ADs considering USC assistants for head coaches: THEY ALL PERFORM BADLY AFTER THEY LEAVE PETE CARROLL.

USC follows a simple winning formula: Carroll gets every single football player worth a damn on the west coast. This means that all other west coast programs get second tier talent, and thus become second tier teams. There is nothing magical in the scheming or strategy at USC when it comes to actual football. These assistants are not going to turn you into the next USC. They're probably not even going to turn you into the next Cincinnatti. Just stay away from them.

5. Get Out Mike Leach

This year was the best you're going to do Mikey. You're never going to have a better QB or WR combo than Harrell and Crabtree. You'll never get the athletes to compete on defense as long as Mack Brown is still coaching at Texas. You've got nowhere else to go but down. Clemson was the perfect job for you, but they pulled a West Virginia and hired an unproved career assistant. Washington was a good job for you, but they pulled a Mississippi and hired a USC assistant who might or might not last longer than Lane Kiffin did at Oakland.

The next job offer you get from a decent BCS school in a conference not named the Big 12 or SEC, take it and never look back.

My Heisman Ballot

1. Colt McCoy, QB - Texas

The kid took a beating in several games this year and was able to lead his team to victory in all but one game. Out of the three players on this list he has the worst supporting cast by far. He beat Sam Bradford head to head. Statistically he's somewhere in the middle of Bradford and Tebow, but without him I don't think Texas gets more than 8 or 9 wins this year.

2. Tim Tebow, QB - Florida

I think he is the best player in college football, but he got too much help from his teammates this year. He put the team on his back and carried the Gators to victory in the SEC Championship Game, and that might be enough to win him the actual award, but in most of the other games this season he was happy to sit back and distribute the ball to the guys around him.

3. Sam Bradford, QB - Oklahoma

I'm not very impressed with this guy, but he put up great numbers and has his team in the national championship game so he has to be on the list. He has great players all around him and an offensive line that offers him plenty of protection. There are at least 20 college QBs you could replace him with and the Sooners wouldn't miss a beat.

Let It Go 'Bama Fans...

It was a face mask. You lost.

SEC Defense vs. Big 12 Offense

There's going to be a lot of talk over the next month about the caliber of defenses and offenses in the SEC and Big 12. Was Oklahoma's offense so good because it was playing such bad Big 12 defenses? Are the SEC defenses so good because they were playing such bad SEC offenses? There's a simple answer: no one knows.

That is why this BCS title game is going to be so fun: we'll finally get to find out.

Early Thoughts on THE 'SHIP

This one's not going to be very complicated. If UF can get pressure on Bradford, the Gators will win. The amount of pressure the Gators get on him will be relative to the amount of points they win by.

If you remember the last time the Gators faced an unstoppable offense in a BCS title game (shouldn't be too hard, it was against Ohio State in 2006), they got a ton of pressure on Troy Smith and held Ohio State to under 100 yards of offense. This Gator defensive line is not as good as the 2006 line and this Oklahoma offense has more weapons than that Ohio State offense had, so it's not going to be as easy this time around.

That being said, the linebackers and secondary on this Gator defense ARE better than the 2006 edition, so the defensive line will not have to shoulder the load. Janoris Jenkins is a true shutdown cornerback (yes, even as a true freshman... the kid is that good), and he should be able to keep Juaquin Iglesias in check.

Jermaine Gresham will be a key component of Oklahoma's offense. The Gators have not faced a tight end as good as him since spring practice (Gresham is a lot like Cornelius Ingram, Florida's standout TE that was lost for the season during Fall camp). I don't even really know who Florida has that can matchup with this guy. If I had to guess, I'd say Will Hill. I think Hill will be very important for the Gators in this game. The Sooners run an up tempo offense, so the chances for substitutions will be rare. Having a defensive back that is strong against both the pass and the run will be crucial. The best way to render Gresham ineffective will be, of course, to pressure Bradford.

On offense, the Gators won't have much of a problem putting points on the board. Oklahoma trots out the 65th ranked defense in the country (which, funny enough, was good enough to be the 2nd ranked defense in the Big 12). I think the Sooner defense is a little underrated considering the Sooners run the no-huddle a lot, so teams have more opportunities to score points. The Gators will try to establish the running game to keep the Sooner's offense off the field.

It will be interesting to see if Oklahoma can stop Tebow, Rainey, Demps, Harvin, and Moody on the ground. You must remember that Oklahoma's star MLB, Ryan Reynolds, was lost for the season earlier in the year. If the Sooners do manage to stop the run and the game turns into a track meet, Florida should still be fine. Texas was able to put 45 up on Oklahoma. No offense to Colt McCoy and the Texas offense, but McCoy is basically a mini-me version of Tebow and the skill position players Tebow has to work with are far superior to that of Texas'.

The x-factors to watch for in this game:

1. Bob Stoops has lost his last four BCS games, including games the past two years against West Virginia and Boise State in which Oklahoma was a heavy favorite.

2. The Heisman winner will go a long way in deciding who wins this game. And I'm not just talking about Tim Tebow.

Tebow and Bradford are the two likely favorites to take home the Heisman this year. I'm not saying there is such thing as a Heisman curse, but the Heisman winner has not fared very well in the title game in recent years. Troy Smith, Jason White, and Chris Weinke have all won the Heisman this decade and then have gone on to lose the BCS title game. Matt Leinart was the only player able to bag a Heisman and a national championship in the same season.

Lane Kiffin Already A Success at Tennessee

I believe the picture says it all.

Kansas State Names Al Davis errr Bill Snyder Their New (Old) Head Coach

You can probably tell from the title of this post that I do not approve of KSU's decision to bring back 69 year old Bill Snyder. I don't really know what they're thinking on this one. He'll be 73 when his first recruiting class graduates.

Snyder was already losing his touch when he left KSU the first time (9-14 in his last 23). I wonder if this hire was a result of no one else wanting the job.

Texas Is the Best Team In the Big 12

After Texas Tech humiliated itself last night, I think it's pretty clear that Texas is the best team in the Big 12. They fell behind early to Texas Tech because after three straight Top 10 battles they couldn't match Tech's intensity, but in the second half they regained their form. You can't tell me that OU is now better than the Longhorns because, of course, Texas beat them on a neutral field. Texas should be going to the Big 12 title game. It won't happen, though, because if Oklahoma takes care of business next week, they will be the Big 12 South representative.

Two other things we learned last night... Tim Tebow deserves to win his second Heisman and the SEC champ will likely win the national title again. Sorry, but the Big 12 teams play no defense. All of these Big 12 games have been decided by which defense plays the worst. Each Big 12 South QB has taken turns lighting up the opposing defenses. Tebow has been throttling teams that actually play a little D.

No, you get a life.

In case anyone missed it, Rich Rodriguez told Michigan fans to "get a life" because of mounting criticism he is facing.

Really RichRod? These passionate fans pay your salary, they fill your stadium, they are the only reason Michigan football is relevant. Without them, you'd be making less than $100,000 and playing in front of 10,000 people.

If you had managed to not have the worst season in school history, the fans probably wouldn't be complaining. I know you were planning on at least a one year grace period, but I'm guessing that plan didn't include losing nine games this year. Don't make a bad situation worse by lashing out at the people who pay good money to watch your team play each fall Saturday.

Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma

Well, this one seems pretty easy to me.

The game is in Norman. Bob Stoops has only lost twice in nearly ten years at home. Texas Tech had some nice home wins, but I don't think they're ready to win a big time away game like this yet.

Plus, check out these stats from http://blatanthomerism.blogspot.com/2008/11/leachs-kryptonite.html

"Since 2004, Tech has played a total of 60 games, 45 on turf and 15 on grass. During that period, the Red Raiders have put averages of 43.1 points per game and 499.2 yards of total offense per game on artificial turf. In comparison, the national medians for all teams on all surfaces are averages of approximately 25 points and 360 yards. What happens when the Raiders play on the real stuff? Tech's averages drop considerably: 27 points per game and 430 yards. On a per-play basis, Leach's teams have averaged 6.0 yards per play on grass versus 6.9 yards per play on turf. Each offensive play generates an average 0.37 points on grass against 0.59 points per play on turf. The disparity even holds true when it comes to taking care of the ball. Since the 2006 season, the Red Raiders have averaged 1.2 turnovers per game on grass, while they have turned it over an average of just one time on turf."

I'll have a more in-depth analysis up in a bit.

Big Least

Hey, remember when Rutgers was 1-5 and looked like one of the worst BCS teams? Well, four games later they are 5-5 and actually have a chance at WINNING the Big East.

Are you kidding me?

UF vs USCe

Not very many big games this weekend, so I'm just going to go over the Gator game. In Brief.

South Carolina has a very good defense. Statistically it is the best the Gators will probably face all year. There is just one problem with it: it's been built the old fashioned way. Linebackers that weigh 270 pounds? 240 pound safeties? This defense was built to stop the traditional SEC offenses, and for the most part it has, but we all know Florida doesn't run a traditional SEC offense. Steve Spurrier of all people should know what happens when you try to defend an offense built on speed with an old school defense. The CBs are a little lighter and faster, headlined by the man with the best name in the SEC, Captain Munnerlyn, but it won't be enough to make up for deficiencies in speed elsewhere.

On offense South Carolina has been its usual inconsistent, turnover prone self. Their leading rusher averages just 3.5 yards per carry and the team averages 2.9 ypc overall. The passing game is a little more potent, but not by much. The Gators have had some problems keeping mobile QBs in check (See Chris Nickson's performance in the second half last week), so Stephen Garcia's legs might be a problem, but outside of that the Gator defense should have no problems keeping the South Carlolina offense in check. Add on to this the fact that the Gators have blocked five South Carolina kicks in the past three meetings, and it is not looking to good for the 'Cocks.

Since the Ole Miss loss, Urban Meyer has commented several times on his team's increased professionalism and attention to detail. If the Gators show up prepared for this game, and I believe they will, it should be no contest.

Florida 42, South Carolina 10.

BCS + 1 = The Answer

College football doesn't need a playoff. The FBS never has had a playoff, and a college football season would feel weird with one at the end. As many people have already pointed out, Iowa's win over Penn State would have been fairly insignificant if a playoff were in place. The only consequence of the loss for PSU would have been dropping a few spots in seeding. If you've followed college football for a while, you'd know that a large part of the appeal is that every game has a huge impact on the season. One loss? You still have a chance at the title but now you have to anxiously watch the teams in front of you and hope they lose. Two losses? You're done.

An eight (or god forbid sixteen) team playoff would mean a few teams could shrug off a loss or two as being no big deal. This is not good for the sport.

A plus one system (essentially a four team playoff) would have a playoff feel AND keep the importance of the regular season in tact. The most important aspect of a plus one is shifting the debate from who deserves to be #2 to who deserves to be #4. There have been a few seasons where more than two teams looked like they should have a shot at the title, but very rarely are there more than four teams who look worthy of a national title by the end of the season.

HOW ARE COLLEGE COACHES SO BAD WITH TIMEOUTS

When going for the game winning/tying field goal, how hard is it to call timeout with 4 seconds or less left? Why would you call a timeout and leave enough time for the opposing team to have a chance with a kickoff return? I mean, how simple is this? And why can't any coach do it? We saw Mike Leach do it last week for Texas Tech, and now Kirk Ferentz did it this week.

Also, nice work on wasting two timeouts on one challenge, Les Miles. You deserved to lose that game, and you did.

The Football Gods Have Spoken

Anyone who follows college football knows Penn State would have gotten beat down by either the SEC or Big 12 champ in the national title game, and the Big 10 would have ruined a third straight title game. Now that PSU is out of the picture, we can have the real championship game between the Big 12 and the SEC (or maybe USC if the Big 12 or SEC Champ finishes with 2 losses).

This match up is much more exciting because the two leagues have been battling all season for title of best conference. The SEC started the season #1, but with Tennessee and Auburn suffering through unforeseen down seasons, the Big 12 has risen up thanks to the amount of great quarterbacks in the league.

Adding to the potential story lines of an SEC vs. Big 12 match up is the probability that the QB of the Big 12 champ will be the Heisman winner. Imagine Florida vs. Texas with Heisman winners Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy dueling it out.

AD Simulator 2008

With Fulmer being forced out, I thought it'd be a good time to go over the guidelines for firing your old coach and hiring a new one for a major college football program.

The most important part of this process is to know who your replacement is before you get rid of the old guy. If there is someone out there that you know will come in and do a better job than the person you currently have, then make the change. If not, you have to stick it out with your current coach until you can find his replacement.

There is nothing dumber in college football than change for the sake of change. The college game is not like the NFL where there are two or three different offensive and defensive philosophies, and all the players are suited to perform in these same philosophies. There are many different kinds of offenses and defenses in the college game, and you're going to need to recruit players specifically for your system. If you hire a new coach it is going to take him 3-4 years to get his players to run his system. If the guy you hire doesn't work out, then the next guy is going to need the same 3-4 year period. One bad hire can set you back almost a decade. So as I said, do not make the change unless you're certain you can get someone better.

Now, how do you find the right guy? All great college football coaches possess at least two of these three qualities:

1. Ability to assemble a high quality coaching staff

Coordinators and position coaches are more important in college than they are in the NFL. They handle the majority of recruiting and they are vital to the development of players. Bobby Bowden went from genius to senile old man when Mark Richt left, Phil Fulmer can't run an offense without David Cutcliffe, Tommy Tuberville is on the hot seat after making one bad coordinator hire, Randy Shannon found himself a defensive coordinator and the 'Canes went from 5-7 to bowl eligible with 3 games remaining.

2. Recruiting skills/Roster Management

Can you recruit great players? I am not just talking about the 5 star can't-miss prospects. You also must be able to identify the hidden gems like Michael Crabtree (2 stars), Brandon James (2 stars), and Chase Daniel (3 stars).

Another important part of this is recruiting for depth. You can go out and have the #1 recruiting class in the nation, but if that class has 5 RBs, 6 WRs, 8 LBs, and 3 Safeties, you did a bad job. You must recruit contributors at each position every year. You're not always going to be able to get All-American calibur athletes, but you need to get guys who can provide solid play until the All-Americans arrive. Depth is one of, if not the most important, aspects of any championship calibur team. It helps with injuries, it makes the starters better (they will have to constantly be improving if they don't want to get passed up on the depth chart), and it can be used to wear down opponents who lack depth. I would take a team with no-name players and quality depth at each position over a team with three or four stars and no depth.

3. Able to put together an excellent game plan and make effective game day adjustments

Pretty self-explanatory. Once you have the players, you have to know how to position them to be successful.

So now that we know what makes a good coach, let's see which possible replacements meet the criteria and which don't.

Tier 1 (Potentially meets all 3):

1. Chris Petersen
2. Mike Leach

Tier 2 (Could possibly meet 2 of 3):

3. Tim Brewster
4. Brian Kelly
5. Lane Kiffin
6. Kyle Wittingham

Tier 3 (Probable college head coach busts):

7. Will Muschamp
8. Jon Gruden
9. Bill Cowher

To be honest, I haven't done much research on all the potential coaching prospects, but these are the names that have been floating around. If at all possible, I think the major college programs should target head coaches at smaller programs that have had continued success. Coordinators are risky because you don't know how well they will transition to the head coach position. Ex-NFL head coaches are extremely risky because you can't succeed running a college program like an NFL franchise. What about Pete Carrol you ask? Carrol ran his NFL teams like a college program, which is why he wasn't that great as an NFL coach.

Random Thoughts From The Weekend

1. Big 12 South vs. The SEC

The top of the polls has been dominated by the SEC and the Big 12 South this season. Any championship game that doesn't feature a team from the Big 12's South Division and the SEC Champ will be a disappointment. Who cares what the final records end up being, the BCS is supposed to put the two best teams in the championship game, and the two best teams this year will be the Big 12 and SEC Champions. These blowout championship games featuring one overmatched team against a proven contender are just not good for college football. Which leads me to my next thought...

2. Penn State and the Big 10

At the very least, the Big 10 needs to add a championship game. It is just not fair that these Big 10 teams can get away with playing one or two big games a year and then coast in to the BCS Championship Game. If Penn State wins out, which it should, it is going to end up getting pasted by whichever SEC or Big 12 team they face (The only team they could hang with for a little while is Alabama, but Alabama would still beat them convincingly in the end.)

The Big 10 won't add a championship game until they feel they absolutely need to. For one, they'd need to add one more team to even out the divisions. Outside of Notre Dame, I don't think the Big 10 is too excited about any possible additions to its conference. Also, do you put Ohio State and Michigan in the same division? Separate divisions? If they play in separate divisions, their annual rivalry game would sometimes be rendered meaningless since it would take place the week before the championship game, and you'd have to figure a good portion of the time OSU will be facing Michigan in that championship game (assuming RichRod can turn things around). If you put them in the same division, than the other Big 10 division could end up like the Big 12 North and lack star power.

3. If I Had A Heisman Vote...

It would look like this:

1. Graham Harrel
2. Colt McCoy
3. Tim Tebow
4. Sam Bradford
5. Michael Crabtree

The fifth spot could also go to Dez Bryant, who has better stats than Crabtree, but Crabtree produced arguably the signature play of this college football season, so he gets the nod for now. The two face off against each other this week in Lubbock.

4. Bye, Phil

I didn't really think Fulmer would be fired this season, but after UT's performance against South Carolina it looks like it is inevitable that the Dean of SEC Coaches will be getting the pink slip. The Vols don't just lose, they don't even compete. I didn't think UT had another 2005 in them, but they are well on there way to another losing season. Even worse for Vol fans, it doesn't look like next year will be any better, regardless of who the coach is.

Texas-Texas Tech

Is this finally the week Texas goes down? I think so. Two things:

1. Texas has played their three previous big games either at home or on a neutral field, this one is on the road.
2. Texas is starting to wear down.

Texas' one weakness is its secondary, which does not exactly bode well when going up against Texas Tech and Michael Crabtree. Talent-wise, Texas of course has the advantage, but it is just too hard to beat a top 12 team four weeks in a row.

At this point you can bet that Texas is becoming both physically and mentally drained. Many are calling this the biggest game in Texas Tech history. Not exactly a great combo if you're a Texas fan. If this game were in Austin the 'Horns would be able to feed off the crowd for energy, but that is not going to be possible on the road.

Texas Tech's defense isn't going to stop Texas, but it will slow it down just enough for Texas Tech to come out with the win.

Texas Tech 49, Texas 45.

Florida-Georgia

Not much needs to be said about this one. Georgia danced its way to a 42-30 win last season, in large part due to Knowshon Moreno running for 188 yards and 3 TDs. Everyone talks about the end zone celebration, but in reality that had little to do with the outcome of the game. After Georgia drew two unsportsmanlike penalties for the celebration, the Gators got the ball and scored within the next two plays.

Georgia was able to win the game because the Florida defense could not tackle, Tebow was playing with one arm, and the offense did not execute during crucial parts of the game. This year, Tebow is healthy and an improved Gator defense will be hyped to make up for last year's game.

These two teams are basically the same as last year. Georgia's offensive and defensive lines are not quite what they were a year ago due to some injuries, but the emergence of A.J. Green at the wideout position has led to an improved Georgia passing attack. Florida lost playmaker Bubba Caldwell, but has finally found a running game with Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey. The Florida defense returns everyone but Tony Joiner, who has been ably replaced by Ahmad Black (3 INTs, 2 of them returned for TDs).

This game falls on the shoulders of the Georgia defense. Georgia's offense needs to rely on Knowhson Moreno. Alabama was able to gash the Georgia D on the ground, keeping Moreno off the field, and by building a large first half lead they took Moreno completely out of the game and the Dawgs were never able to recover. Stafford is more than capable of making big plays, but he is too inconsistent to be solely relied on in a shootout. The Gator offense is far more explosive than Alabama's, and the Gators feature a running attack just as good as the Tide's. The Bulldogs will have to find a way to keep Florida out of the end zone early.

The Gator defense will surely load the box to stop Moreno. I wouldn't be surprised if we see true freshman Will Hill make a name for himself in this game (If he hasn't already with his seemingly endless amount of special teams tackles), as he is built with the perfect amount of size and speed to move up from his safety position and contain Moreno.

Georgia will keep this one close in the first half, but the Gators will break it open in the second half due to their depth along the offensive and defensive line. By the end of the third quarter the Dawgs will have to abandon the running game and rely on Stafford, and he won't be able to get it done.

Gators 45, Georgia 28.

"Ok Les Miles, you win" Addendum

Earlier this year I made a post about Les Miles finally proving he belongs among the SEC's elite when it comes to coaches after LSU pulled out a last second victory over Auburn. Obviously two things have changed since that post:

1. Auburn has proven to be terrible.
2. LSU has lost two games by a combined 44 points.

No one really expected big things out of the offense after Ryan Perrilloux was booted off the team, but the defense has not been very impressive either. The personnel is still there, notably on the defensive line, but Bo Pelini is definitely missed. Miles has lost two games in each of his first three seasons, and he sits at two losses so far this season with Alabama still on the schedule.

The Big 12

Sorry I haven't been updating more frequently. I will get back to it this week.

Many people are starting to believe that the Big 12 may be the best conference this year. This is in large part due to the crazy amount of points put up by some Big 12 offenses this year. Just look at the scores from this past weekend:

http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/scoreboard?confId=4&weekNumber=8&seasonYear=2008

The Big 12 has some great quarterbacks, and I do believe that the QB position is the most important one on the field, but we still must remember that offense may win games, but defense wins championships. The SEC still fields the best defenses in the country.

Tennessee and Auburn being down this year really hurts the SEC. These two teams' poor showing thus far is really why the Big 12 has crept into the Best Conference discussion. Also, Missouri, Ok State, and Kansas are much better this year than they have been historically. Nebraska is the only traditional power from the Big 12 having a down year.

To be honest, I am really not sure which is the best conference, and we probably won't know who will come out on top until bowl season. Just for fun, though, lets match up the best six teams from each conference:

Texas vs Alabama

Oklahoma vs Florida

Oklahoma State vs Georgia

Texas Tech vs LSU

Missouri vs Vanderbilt

Kansas vs Kentucky

Really, all of these games are a push except for OSU/UGA and Mizzou/Vandy. Oklahoma State is a nice story, but they lack the athletes up front to stay with Georgia. Vanderbilt is a nice story, but they have been winning with smoke and mirrors and Chase Daniel would pick them apart. Besides OSU/UGA and Mizzou/Vandy, only one of these matchups has the potential to become the shootout that is seen week in and week out in the Big 12, and that is OU/UF.

The main problem the Big 12 offenses will face against SEC defenses is imbalance. Of all the Big 12 teams listed, only Oklahoma State has a reliable run game. Texas relies too much on McCoy to run the ball, OU's DeMarco Murray is going through a sophomore slump, Mike Leach does not list running back as an offensive position, and Kansas only averages 3.6 ypc and 125 yards a game on the ground. Teams who cannot grind out yards on the ground will not have much success against the best defenses the SEC has to offer. Only three teams in the SEC (Florida, Georgia, Alabama) have shown they can both run and throw the ball. These three teams also just happen to be ranked in the Top 10.

So what did you learn by reading this post? Not a whole lot, which is kind of the point. No real answers will come until the season is finished. However, I would love to see the SEC champ take on the Big 12 champ for the national title this year.

Good Perspective on the Title Chase

http://cfn.scout.com/2/795302.html

Pete Fiutak of CFN and Stewart Mandel of CNNSI are the best in the biz when it comes to talking college football. Fiutak posted his thoughts on all the upsets over the weekend, and I pretty much agree. His 7th point is particularly interesting and spot on.

OH THE IRONY

The day after I outline what not to do in this season of shortened games, the Gators go right down the list and do all the things you need to do to lose to an inferior team. Not much analysis is needed here. The Gators lost the turnover battle 3-1 (they also had a punt that went for no yards, so essentially they turned the ball over four times), they performed poorly in kickoff coverage, and of course the nail in the coffin was the blocked extra point (even though an Ole Miss defender illegally hurdled a Florida offensive lineman to get the block, so there should have been a penalty against Ole Miss on the play).

There is plenty of blame to go around for the loss. Percy Harvin and Tim Tebow uncharacteristically put the ball on the ground. The defense allowed two big plays to go for touchdowns, including the game winning 85 yard TD pass on a 3rd and long. The offensive line once again was outplayed. Tebow missed a few passes that would have gone for touchdowns or big gains.

Here is how I see it for Gator fans:

Good News:

The loss was to an SEC West team, so your chances of winning an SEC and national title are the same today as they were before the loss. Win the rest of your games, and you're in. The pollsters are not going to be kind to the Gators this week; they will most likely end up somewhere in the 11-14 range. However, BYU is the only team with an above average chance of going undefeated, but there is no way they are getting into the title game unless all other BCS contenders have two or more losses. Oklahoma looks great, but Oklahoma always looks great in September. They will likely drop a game or two along the way, and probably in the same way the Gators lost this game. Penn State has a shot, but they still have to play OSU and Wisconsin. The Gators will get opportunities to defeat fellow SEC contenders LSU, Georgia, and Alabama (if 'Bama makes it to the SECCG). If there are a handful of one loss teams vying for a spot in the title game, and there will be, the SEC champ will get that spot.

Bad News:

I don't know if it's the Heisman, the offensive line, the loss of Bubba Caldwell and CI, or the playcalling, but Tebow has not been as dominant as he was last season. As stated above, there were multiple reasons why the Gators lost this game, but Tebow left several plays out on the field that could have won the Gators the game. Twice that I saw he had open receivers he should have identified immediately based on what the defense was showing, but instead he went elsewhere with the ball. On first and second down during the final set of downs on the last drive he had open receivers streaking towards the end zone but overthrew them both times. Tebow bashers love to argue that Tebow cannot read defenses. For most of his career they have been incorrect, as Tebow has always done an excellent job at making the right decisions. However, this was not the case in this game as Tebow definitely left some plays out on the field. Florida is not going to win the rest of its games if Tebow cannot elevate his play.

Jim Tartt seems to make or break this offensive line. The fifth year senior guard missed the Hawaii, Miami, and Ole Miss games. It did not matter against an outmatched Hawaii squad, but Miami and Ole Miss were able to disrupt the offense by going at Tartt's replacement, Marcus Gilbert. Tartt's only start this season, against Tennessee, is the only game that Florida has won the line of scrimmage on the offensive side of the ball. The Gators either need to get Tartt healthy, coach Gilbert up, or insert James Wilson. On those 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 plays where they run Tebow, they almost always go left towards Phil Trautwein and Jim Tartt. With Tartt out of the game they decided to go right on that pivotal 4th and 1 play against Ole Miss, and were subsequently stuffed.

The Gator game plan does not seem to fit this offensive line. When the Gators go with five wide outs, they run these long developing plays that ultimately become disrupted by pressure on Tebow. They need to run shorter routes, get the ball out quicker, and let their athletes make plays. The Gators can line up Percy Harvin, Louis Murphy, Aaron Hernandez, Riley Cooper, Deonte Thompson, Chris Rainey, Jeff Demps, Carl Moore and Brandon James in WR positions. You put any of these five guys on the field at one time, there is going to be a major mismatch somewhere that can be exploited IMMEDIATELY. They do not need to run some 15-20 yard route. Get the ball in their hands ASAP. Hit them on a WR screen, a 5 yard slant or out pattern, and let them make the play.



Outlook:

Obviously, the Gators cannot afford to lose focus again like they did this week. It was possible to overcome three turnovers in the past. If you turn over the ball three times this year, you are going to lose unless your opponent is being as generous as you are. The loss to Auburn in 2006 was the catalyst for that year's championship run. The team did not get dejected, they got pissed off. They turned up the intensity and came out focused for every game after that. These 2008 Gators need to do the same. Assuming the Gators don't come out and beat themselves like they did in this game, they should only face significant resistance against LSU and Georgia. Georgia certainly looked beatable last night. Alabama was able to put Georgia in a position where Matt Stafford had to win them the game, and of course he was not able to come through. The Gators will follow the same game plan.

LSU is a whole different animal, however. This is the game that will make or break the Gators season. This is not really a surprise; the winner of this game the past two years has gone on to win the national title. LSU is similar to Ole Miss. While Ole Miss gets great offensive and defensive line play, LSU's lines are dominant. Both Ole Miss and LSU will try to control the game with a power running game and an eventual big play through the air off of play action. If the Gators can get passed LSU, they have an excellent shot at being in Atlanta for the SECCG.

Clock Rules

Last week I listed three reasons why I thought the mid-majors and other programs who have never had much success have all of a sudden become relevant in college football. Well add another reason to the list: the new clock rules.

As we saw last night, the most talented team on the field now has a smaller chance of winning due to the shortening of the game. Most teams get about 8 or 9 possessions a game now. Last night, USC had three 3 and outs and two turnovers. You just cannot afford to do that now no matter who the opponent is. If you don't score on a drive, you at least have to gain a field position advantage or else you may waste an entire half's worth of possessions. This is what happened to USC last night.

With the old rules, you could afford to turn the ball over a couple of times because you could make up for it later on. This is no longer the case. Each turnover reduces a team's chance to win drastically. Special teams are also at an all time high value wise. Superior teams could get away with shaky special teams in the past, but this is no longer the case. Even though special teams have always been important, you barely ever hear an analyst discuss a team's special teams when talking about their chance at winning championships. I believe that will change as long as these new clock rules are in place; however, I don't think the new clock rules will last long.

University of Southern Chokers

For the third year in a row USC drops a game they had no business losing. Jacquizz Rodgers, a 5'6" 180 lbs. running back, ran through the USC defense all night. It was truly remarkable to see him squirm his way out of tackles. He didn't exactly juke defenders, and he certainly didn't run over them, but somehow he managed to avoid getting tackled and consistently picked up 4-5 yards. Despite having arm strength that wouldn't even be considered good for a high school QB, Oregon State signal caller Lyle Moevao threw two touch down passes against USC's highly regarded secondary.

On offense, Mark Sanchez had good numbers, but he was consistently pressured. USC put together two great drives to start the third quarter, but could do little else the rest of the night. Joe McKnight had a terrible night, fumbling the ball once and managing just 10 yards on 7 carries. Stafon Johnson and C.J. Gable had some success running the ball, but by the time USC got them on the field they were too far behind to run the ball.

In the end, I believe the new clock rules ultimately did USC in. Under the new rules, teams are losing one to two possessions a game. USC managed to run just 51 plays, and had the ball for only 22 minutes and 11 seconds. By the time USC found its rhythm on offense the game was all but over.

Greg Schianewb

This is why you bolt your inferior program the second you are offered a top tier job. Schiano could be roaming the side lines at Miami or Michigan right now, but instead he's still chopping away at Rutgers. After two years of moderate success, the Scarlet Knights are off to a more Rutgers-like 0-3 start. Losing Ray Rice hurts, but most of Rutgers' problems have come on the defensive side of the ball.

Many people think Schiano is holding out for the Penn State job, but will Penn State want Schiano three years down the road if Rutgers goes 12-24 over that time period? No one cares what you did five years ago. It's starting to get to the point where no one even cares what you did LAST year. Schiano can probably get Rutgers back into the Top 25 in the next couple of years, mostly because the Big East is pretty weak. If he does, is he going to decline more job offers from major programs?

Weekend Observations

1. UF vs UT

It was business as usual for the Gators. The defense and special teams dominated the game and the offense took advantage of the opportunities that resulted from the other two units' efforts. Urban Meyer's plan to win this season has been simple, but effective: win the field position battle by playing great defense and not turning the ball over.

The offensive statistics have not been spectacular, but that is because they haven't really had to be. The Gators simply have not had to go very far to score. For those thinking the offense has been struggling, just consider that of Florida's 31 offensive possessions (I did not count possessions that ended with the Gators running the ball to end the half/game) this season, they have only had to punt 13 times. Since the Gators have not turned the ball over yet this season, this means they are scoring on 58% of their drives. Sounds pretty good to me.

The Gators are not going to match last years offensive numbers for two reasons: the new clock rules and the Gator defense. The new clock rules have taken away one to two possessions per game. The Gator defense has eliminated the need to take extra risks on offense. Last season, the coaches felt the need to score on every possession. This season they are much more comfortable punting the ball and letting the defense get the ball back for the offense. Hard to argue with this since the defense has forced 9 turnovers in three games and has only given up a total of 19 points.

As for the Vols performance, you really don't have to look any further than the recruiting rankings the past four years. The Gators' average recruiting class rank is 5.25 (including three Top 3 finishes the past three years) according to Rivals. The Vols come in at 16.25. Phil Fulmer has never been a great X's and O's coach, and when Tennessee was having success in the 90s and the earlier part of the decade, it was mostly due to their talent advantage. With that advantage gone the Vols are just a middle of the road SEC East team.


2. Ok Les Miles, you win.

I never thought that LSU would still be an elite team four years into the Les Miles era. Once Saban's players were gone, I thought LSU would regress back to the Gerry DiNardo years. That has not been the case. While it would be nearly impossible to duplicate Saban's recruiting efforts at LSU, Mile has come pretty close. LSU had the most talented team in the SEC from 2005-2007. I would say Florida and Georgia have caught up to them this season, but they are certainly still right up there.

Miles' game day coaching has been as impressive as his recruiting. You keep waiting for his gambles to cost him a big game, but it seems they work out every time. Emotion plays a huge role in college football, and Miles always seems to know what he needs to do to give his team the emotional edge.

I also expected the defense take a step back this season due to Bo Pelini leaving for the Nebraska head coaching job, but LSU looks as formidable as ever on that side of the ball. If Miles can go 2-1 against Florida, Georgia, and Alabama he will find himself in another SEC Championship Game playing for a spot in Miami.


3. Maybe Georgia should have traveled out west to play someone from the MWC.

Georgia manhandled an over matched Arizona State team. Georgia controlled the line of scrimmage the entire night, allowing Arizona State to rush for just 4 yards on 19 carries while the Dawgs were able to pound out 176 yards on the ground. This has become a fairly predictable stat line when top teams from the SEC take on out of conference opponents. It looks like Georgia will only be tested from inside the SEC this year.

There is a reason why the SEC had five of the top ten teams in last week's AP Poll. Every other conference except for the Big 12 is awful this season. Really, how do you even try to decipher the BCS conference rankings for the 3-6 slots? Here is a breakdown of each BCS conference and the amount of teams they have ranked:

Big East: 1 (#14 USF)
Pac 10: 2 (#1 USC, #22 Oregon)
ACC: 2 (#15 Wake Forest, #19 Clemson)
Big 10: 4 (#8 Wisconsin, #12 Penn St, #13 Ohio St, #21 Illinois)
Big 12: 5 (#2 Oklahoma, #5 Missouri, #7 Texas, #9 Texas Tech, #18 Kansas)
SEC: 6 (#3 Georgia, #4 Florida, #6 LSU, #10 Alabama, #16 Auburn, #25 Vanderbilt)

Because the Big East, Pac 10, and ACC didn't feel like fielding many Top 25 teams this season, mighty VANDERBILT, who has forever been the worst program in the SEC has cracked the Top 25. Pac 10 semi-contenders Arizona State, Oregon, and Cal have turned out to be duds. Hard to blame Oregon for falling short because of their QB situation, but their defense has also been woeful. In the Big 10, Ohio State and Illinois lost big to the only decent teams they've played this season, so they are only ranked because of their preseason rankings. Same goes for Clemson in the ACC and Kansas in the Big 12. Penn State has not yet played anyone decent.


4.The Jimbo Fisher Era has begun!

Some excitement was building in Tallahassee after the Seminoles demolished two FCS schools to open the season. Jimbo's offense was starting to take shape. 'Noles starting QB Christian Ponder displayed old school FSU cockiness by guaranteeing a victory. The Doak was rocking as Chief Osceola ran out to mid field to plant the flaming spear into the ground. The Seminole team gathered together and jumped up and down at midfield with anticipation.

And then Ponder was picked off on his first passing attempt and the 'Noles reverted back to the same team we have seen for the past seven years. You can't really even say they reverted because what they showed on offense was even worse than what we have become accustomed to seeing out of FSU. Seven turnovers and a 12-3 loss to Wake Forest. There were many negatives for Florida State in this game: the offensive line is worse than it's ever been, still no quarterback or running game, the best offensive play they have is still the jump ball. The worst part, though, had to be the realization that the Seminoles could not defeat a Wake Forest team that did not bring their A, B, or C game. Wake Forest did everything they could to keep them in the game and they still could not muster more than three points.

Bill Stewart? C'mooooooooooooooooon

This is what happens when you hire a coach based on his performance in one game.

His clock management at the end of the 4th quarter last night reminded me of when I forget to pay attention to the clock in NCAA Football and the half or game suddenly ends on me in the middle of a scoring drive.

Dying

I have been sick since Tuesday and it's only getting worse. Not going to be able to make as many UF/UT posts as I'd like, and it looks like I won't be able to go to Knoxville for the game. :(

Anyway, here are some interesting notes on the game:

• The Vol offense is averaging just 13 points a game against the Gators since Urban Meyer took over.
• The Vols have not had a run go for more than 6 yards in the last two meetings.
• Urban Meyer will be going up against his third different Vol offensive coordinator in just four years.
• Vol QB Jonathan Crompton has thrown more interceptions (3) than completions (2) when facing third and ten or longer.
• Vol RB Arian Foster is averaging 7.8 ypc this season, the Gator defense is giving up only 2.

As much as it looks like this should be an easy win for the Gators, it is never easy in Knoxville. Lets take a look at the Gators' last five trips to Rocky Top:

• 1998: Gators lose in overtime on a missed field goal. Vols go on to win the national championship.
• 2000: Gators win on Jabar Gaffney's last second touchdown catch. I am willing to bet 90% of Vol Nation still does not believe that was a catch.
• 2002: Gators win big as Casey Clausen and co. fumble away the game.
• 2004: Gators lose on last second field goal. The field goal never should have happened as the refs mistakenly stopped the clock with 57 seconds left a couple plays earlier.
• 2006: Gators come from 10 behind in the second half to win 21-20 on a scoring drivelate in the fourth quarter.

The Gators have relied on special teams and run defense to beat the Vols in the past. You can expect more of the same this season. The Gators will have two or three costly penalties and a missed field goal that will allow the Vols to hang around until the fourth quarter, but ultimately they will prevail.

Gators 28, Vols 14.

Tennessee Week - Florida Offense vs. Tennessee Defense

Percy Harvin is back at full speed and Senior guard Jim Tartt will be back after missing the first two games with a shoulder injury, so there are no more excuses for the Gator offense this week.

The strength of the Vol defense is their secondary, led by safeties Dee Morley and Eric Berry. The secondary looked great in the first half against UCLA, intercepting four passes, but disappeared in the second half when they allowed UCLA's wide receivers to sit in soft spots of their zone defense. Third string QB Kevin Craft was able to get UCLA 17 second half points to send the game into overtime.

The Vols have to replace two linebackers, including Top 10 draft pick Jerod Mayo, and both defensive ends in the front 7. The Vols have done decently against the run, allowing only 2.4 yards per carry.

The Gators return just about everyone on an offense that scored 45 points (The defense and special teams scored the other 14) against the Vols last season. The only major losses are WR Andre Caldwell (Graduated/Drafted) and Cornelious Ingram (ACL). There are a number of talented wide receivers ready to take over Caldwell's spot, and Aaron Hernandez has done a great job filling in for Ingram.

As always, the key to stopping the Gator offense is to put pressure on Tebow. Tennessee defensive coordinator John Chavis is not known for his aggressiveness, and more often than not he relies soley on the front four to create pressure. This worked well for the Vols when Albert Haynesworth was anchoring the defensive line, but it has not gone so well in recent years. Chavis' zone defense schemes will be a welcome change to Tim Walton's blitz defense that Miami used to attack the Gator offensive line. I believe Tebow will have more than enough time to sit in the pocket and find his receivers.

This was supposed to be the year that the Gators finally saw some production out of the running back position. The RBs lived up to the hype against Hawaii, but Miami was able to shut down anyone running the ball not named Tim Tebow or Percy Harvin. Florida seemed to sabotage themselves by running light weight RBs Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps between the tackles. Emmanuel Moody did not get any carries; however, Meyer has said that Moody will get some touches against the Vols. I really have no idea how this will play out during the game. If I had to guess, I'd say Rainey, Demps, and Moody will combine for about 10 carries for 50-60 yards. Senior RB Kestahn Moore will also get a few carries.

The Vols return three starters from last year's secondary and 2006 starter Dee Morley. They will have their hands full against the Gators, who have one of the top wide receiving corps in the nation. Straight up, the Vol DBs might be able to hang with the Gators, however the true strength of the Gators passing attack is that they are able to rotate multiple four and five star athletes in and out of the lineup. Look for the Vol secondary to wear down as the game goes on and for Florida OC Dan Mullen to find holes in the Vol secondary just like UCLA's Norm Chow was able to do.

TENNESSEE WEEK

I will be posting my thoughts on the game throughout the week.

Attack of the Mid-Majors

The gap between the haves and the have nots has slowly been increasing over the years in college football. One glance at this week's rankings and you'll notice that there are 3 Non-BCS teams in the coaches poll (Fresno State is ranked just outside of the Top 25 after their close loss to Wisconsin) and 4 in the AP.

The Mountain West Conference went 4-0 against the Pac 10 this weekend, and are 5-0 overall against the BCS conference this year. BYU annihilated UCLA 59-0. East Carolina has already knocked off two top 25 teams. We've seen the little guys knock off Pittsburgh and Oklahoma in BCS bowls over the past four years. Really, there are too many upsets to even mention in one space.

So that leaves the question... how are these teams pulling it off? I believe there are three reasons.

1. The talent pool is much deeper

Football is clearly the number one sport in America. Kids growing up now are more likely to drift towards football, especially in states like Florida and Texas. Basketball is really the only other sport that competes for their attention. With the 85 scholarship limit, the top programs can't sign all the talent, so it must go elsewhere.

2. Expanded coverage

A big selling point to recruits is television coverage. Kids want to play on TV. Fifteen years ago there were not nearly as many college football games on television as there are today. You can sit in front of the TV from noon until 2 AM and always have at least two games to watch. Television exposure is no longer limited to just the big time programs.

3. The spread offense

As we saw in the Appalachian State/Michigan game last year, the spread offense is a great talent equalizer. A less talented team is not going to win a game if their best guys are constantly going up against the superior team's best guys. In more conventional offenses, your best offensive skill players are going to be matched up against the defense's best players. In the spread offense you can create mismatches and have your best guy go against a 3rd or 4th string defensive back or linebacker. Eventually defenses will catch up with the spread scheme, and it may already be happening, but for now any spread offense has a chance to put up big numbers against a more talented defense as long as it as two or three playmakers.

What did this guy have for lunch?

Observations From This Week's Games

1. John David Booty was not a very good QB

USC "struggled" the past two years to back to back 11-2 Pac 10 and Rose Bowl champion seasons. Many blamed this on the Trojan's inability to create big plays and support the defense when it was having an off game. Looks like we found the problem. While John David Booty was good but not great (63% completion rating, 23-10 TD/INT ratio, 138 QB rating in 2007), Mark Sanchez has been fantastic with pretty much the same exact supporting cast (68% completion rating, 7-2 TD/INT ratio, 166 QB rating).

2. Ohio State still can't block or tackle anyone outside the Big 10

The #1 reason Ohio State has been embarrassed in their last three match ups against Top 2 teams is their inability to protect the quarterback. Florida, LSU, and USC all had talented defensive lines with lots of depth that manhandled OSU's offensive line. Against Florida, Ohio State was in the game until Florida's defense pressured Troy Smith into throwing an interception, stopped Ohio State on a 4th and 1, and forced Smith to fumble deep in OSU territory. These three plays lead to 17 points that put Ohio State away for good. Ohio State was actually leading LSU by 10 until the Tiger backfield started getting to Todd Boeckman and forced him to throw two INTs. Last night Boeckman was constantly under pressure. Funny enough, however, Boeckman's most costly mistake of the night (the 2nd quarter INT returned for a touchdown by Rey Maualuga) came when he had time to throw.

Even though it seems like OSU's defense has given up a ton of points in these games, a lot of the opposing team's scoring has come from taking advantage of OSU's offensive mistakes. That being said, OSU's defense does have trouble keeping up with speedy playmakers like Percy Harvin and Joe McKnight. Fortunately, or unfortunately, for OSU 99% of other defenses have the same problem.

3. Matt Stafford is going to make millions of dollars and I don't know why

The CBS broadcast of the Georgia vs. South Carolina game was the last straw for me. Listening to Verne Lundquist and Todd Blackledge gush over this kid is like listening to Special Ed teachers praise their retarded pupils for going an entire day without pissing their pants. Are you ready for the future Number One draft pick's current career college stats?

56% completion rating, 30-23 TD/INT ratio, 130 QB rating.

If you notice above, I posted John David Booty's 2007 stats and, I dunno about you, but I'd take Booty (who ended up a 5th round draft pick in a not-so-amazing draft for QBs). The breaking point for me came when Blackledge excused Stafford's mediocre stats because of all the deep shots he takes down field. Hmm... would you rather have a QB who completes 65%+ of his passes, doesn't make many mistakes, can move the chains, and will lead your team to 3-4 touchdown drives a game, OR the guy who completes 56% of his passes and maybe every once in a while will complete a 40 or 50 yard pass.

4. DOWN GOES CHARLIE!

Can't believe this isn't on YouTube yet. Maybe if Weiss dropped a few pounds he'd be agile enough to get out of the way. The best part of this story is he is refusing to rehab it. REPLACE ONE OF MY SIX MEALS A DAY WITH A WORK OUT REGIMEN?! GRRAAAARRRRR I'M ANGRY BRING ME MORE CHEESEBURGERS.

5. Auburn 3, Mississippi State 2

Auburn took the first of a 3 game series against Mississippi State 3-2 today... whoops SEC baseball doesn't start for another 5 months. Looks like Auburn is handling the transition to the spread offense about as well as Michigan is.

6. Todd Reesing is a bad ass

I hadn't really gotten a chance to watch him play until this past Friday night. He is one of the best I've ever seen at scrambling, planting his feet, and then delivering an accurate ball down field. Seems like USF should have had about 3 more sacks on the guy but he was able to elude the tacklers and then get the ball out in a hurry. Too bad he won't have an NFL career because he has the looks and size of a leprechaun.

7. Don't mean to toot my own horn, but...

Predictions:
Oregon 38, Purdue 24
Georgia 24, South Carolina 13
South Florida 31, Kansas 27
Wisconsin 20, Fresno State 17
USC 31, Ohio State 14

Results:
Oregon 32, Purdue 26
Georgia 14, South Carolina 7
South Florida 37, Kansas 34
Wisconsin 13, Fresno State 10
USC 35, Ohio State 3

Thoughts and Predictions on the Five Biggest Games of the Weekend

5. Oregon @ Purdue

In the second best Pac 10 v Big 10 matchup of the weekend, two potent offenses face off in what promises to be a high scoring game. Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart are gone, but the Ducks have still managed to score 110 points in their first two games. Nate Costa originally won the starting job for Oregon, but he was injured during the preseason and will miss all of 2008. Justin Roper, who threw for four touchdowns against South Florida in last year's Sun Bowl, takes over and has done a decent job so far. The real stars of the Oregon offense have been running backs Jeremiah Johnson and LeGarette Blount. Oregon currently ranks fourth in the nation with 332 yards per game rushing.

Purdue on the other hand returns 2008 All-Big 10 quarterback Curtis Painter. Painter will be going up against a talented Oregon secondary that features one of college football's best safeties, Patrick Chung. Painter is a smart QB who can throw with good velocity and accuracy, however the Oregon back four should be able to keep his WRs in check.

The Oregon offense will control the game and the Duck's secondary will be just disruptive enough to slow down the Purdue passing attack.

Oregon 38, Purdue 24


4. Georgia @ South Carolina

It is always entertaining when the Ol' Ball Coach matches up against the Dawgs. Spurrier was able to knock off Georgia early last season before Knowshon Moreno emerged and UGA caught fire at the end of last season.

This is going to be a battle of defenses as South Carolina QB's Chris Smelley and Tommy Beecher have combined to throw 6 interceptions in their first two games. Georgia's offense has been impressive early, but it has yet to face a defense with a pulse. Georgia is averaging 237 yards per game on the ground, and it is no secret that stopping RBs Moreno and King is the key to shutting down the Georgia offense. South Carolina has done a decent job so far, allowing only 112 yards per game against two BCS opponents. If South Carolina can keep Georgia under 150 yards rushing and under 20 points, Spurrier has a shot at his second consecutive upset of Richt's Georgia squad.

The problem is, South Carolina just does not have enough on offense. South Carolina's best receiver, Kenny McKinley, will likely miss the game with a sore hamstring, and the South Carolina offensive line has had a tough time handling the pass rush so far. Even if the South Carolina defense can hold its own against Georgia, it is likely that the Bulldogs will be able to get into SC's backfield and force some QB mistakes.

Since the game is in Columbia, the Gamecocks will keep it close, but in the end they won't have the offensive fire power to overcome a more complete Georgia team.

Georgia 24, South Carolina 13


3. Kansas @ South Florida

Mark Mangino and Jim Leavitt were both once assistants on Bill Snyder's Kansas State staff in the early 90's. Last season both coaches put their respective programs on the map. USF once again has a chance to vault up the ratings by defeating a Top 15 opponent at home on a Friday night (Last year's victim was West Virginia).

The real match up here is the KU offense versus the USF defense. Former USF defensive line coach Dan McCarney packed his bags and left for Gainesville to replace departed UF defensive line coach Greg Mattison. The USF defensive line, and last year's breakout star George Selvie in particular, have had a tough time generating the amount of pressure on the QB that they did last season under McCarney's tutelage, but they have been stout against the run. Kansas has struggled mightily running the ball this season, managing only 3.7 ypc on the ground.

Kansas is also breaking in a pair of new tackles, so this may be the opportunity Selvie and Co. have been looking for to get going. If they can get to Kansas QB Todd Reesing they have an excellent shot at coming up with the home upset.

The USF offense appears to be improved, with a more mature Matt Grothe leading the attack. The Kansas defense is no slouch, though, giving up only 406 total yards in the first two games. They have not seen an offense the caliber of USF's yet.

South Florida 31, Kansas 27


2. Wisconsin @ Fresno State

Wisconsin has gotten off to slow starts in each of their first two games, and now they must travel to the west coast to face off against a very good Fresno St. squad who many believe could contend for a BCS bowl bid this year. Both squads are very similar in that they both rely on running the ball and playing good defense, while making just enough plays in the passing game to keep the chains moving.

Fresno State was able to shutdown the Ray Rice-less Rutgers running attack, while Wisconsin's defense has been dominant against Akron and Marshall. I believe the key to the game will be depth, and Wisconsin's ability to wear down the Fresno St. front seven will win them the game.

Wisconsin 20, Fresno State 17


1. Ohio State @ USC

This is the game most college football fans have been waiting for since LSU demolished OSU in last season's national championship game. The two schools have combined to play for or win the last six national championships, but oddly enough they have not faced each other since 1990.

Even though Mark Sanchez lit up the Virginia secondary in week one, I am still not sold on the USC passing game. Sanchez himself commented that he had so much time in the pocket he could have cooked some steaks. That won't happen against OSU. Everyone knows about the infinite amount of RBs Southern Cal has, but sometimes I think this hurts more than it helps as none of the backs ever get into any kind of rhythm. I think USC will try to keep the ball in the hands of Joe McKnight and CJ Gable for this game. They will have to use the run to setup the pass against OSU's talented secondary.

With or without Beanie Wells, OSU's offense has not fared well against defenses with elite speed like USC's. OSU may be able to run the ball against USC's reloaded defensive line, but I don't see how they are going to be able to make any plays throwing the ball. Eventually USC will be able to slow down the OSU running attack, and once they do that their is not much left for OSU to turn to. Like their QB, the OSU wide receivers are solid, but not great. If Pryor is kept on the bench, and I don't see how Tressel can keep him on the bench if they don't have Wells to carry the running game, OSU will struggle to score points.

I am sure by now Ohio State is tired of hearing they can't win the big game, but I don't think it will matter. Everyone insists that this Ohio State team is just as talented as the other contenders, but it seems like every time Ohio State has to prove that on the field they fail.

USC 31, Ohio State 14