Last week I listed three reasons why I thought the mid-majors and other programs who have never had much success have all of a sudden become relevant in college football. Well add another reason to the list: the new clock rules.
As we saw last night, the most talented team on the field now has a smaller chance of winning due to the shortening of the game. Most teams get about 8 or 9 possessions a game now. Last night, USC had three 3 and outs and two turnovers. You just cannot afford to do that now no matter who the opponent is. If you don't score on a drive, you at least have to gain a field position advantage or else you may waste an entire half's worth of possessions. This is what happened to USC last night.
With the old rules, you could afford to turn the ball over a couple of times because you could make up for it later on. This is no longer the case. Each turnover reduces a team's chance to win drastically. Special teams are also at an all time high value wise. Superior teams could get away with shaky special teams in the past, but this is no longer the case. Even though special teams have always been important, you barely ever hear an analyst discuss a team's special teams when talking about their chance at winning championships. I believe that will change as long as these new clock rules are in place; however, I don't think the new clock rules will last long.
Friday, September 26, 2008
University of Southern Chokers
For the third year in a row USC drops a game they had no business losing. Jacquizz Rodgers, a 5'6" 180 lbs. running back, ran through the USC defense all night. It was truly remarkable to see him squirm his way out of tackles. He didn't exactly juke defenders, and he certainly didn't run over them, but somehow he managed to avoid getting tackled and consistently picked up 4-5 yards. Despite having arm strength that wouldn't even be considered good for a high school QB, Oregon State signal caller Lyle Moevao threw two touch down passes against USC's highly regarded secondary.
On offense, Mark Sanchez had good numbers, but he was consistently pressured. USC put together two great drives to start the third quarter, but could do little else the rest of the night. Joe McKnight had a terrible night, fumbling the ball once and managing just 10 yards on 7 carries. Stafon Johnson and C.J. Gable had some success running the ball, but by the time USC got them on the field they were too far behind to run the ball.
In the end, I believe the new clock rules ultimately did USC in. Under the new rules, teams are losing one to two possessions a game. USC managed to run just 51 plays, and had the ball for only 22 minutes and 11 seconds. By the time USC found its rhythm on offense the game was all but over.
On offense, Mark Sanchez had good numbers, but he was consistently pressured. USC put together two great drives to start the third quarter, but could do little else the rest of the night. Joe McKnight had a terrible night, fumbling the ball once and managing just 10 yards on 7 carries. Stafon Johnson and C.J. Gable had some success running the ball, but by the time USC got them on the field they were too far behind to run the ball.
In the end, I believe the new clock rules ultimately did USC in. Under the new rules, teams are losing one to two possessions a game. USC managed to run just 51 plays, and had the ball for only 22 minutes and 11 seconds. By the time USC found its rhythm on offense the game was all but over.
Monday, September 22, 2008
Greg Schianewb
This is why you bolt your inferior program the second you are offered a top tier job. Schiano could be roaming the side lines at Miami or Michigan right now, but instead he's still chopping away at Rutgers. After two years of moderate success, the Scarlet Knights are off to a more Rutgers-like 0-3 start. Losing Ray Rice hurts, but most of Rutgers' problems have come on the defensive side of the ball.
Many people think Schiano is holding out for the Penn State job, but will Penn State want Schiano three years down the road if Rutgers goes 12-24 over that time period? No one cares what you did five years ago. It's starting to get to the point where no one even cares what you did LAST year. Schiano can probably get Rutgers back into the Top 25 in the next couple of years, mostly because the Big East is pretty weak. If he does, is he going to decline more job offers from major programs?
Many people think Schiano is holding out for the Penn State job, but will Penn State want Schiano three years down the road if Rutgers goes 12-24 over that time period? No one cares what you did five years ago. It's starting to get to the point where no one even cares what you did LAST year. Schiano can probably get Rutgers back into the Top 25 in the next couple of years, mostly because the Big East is pretty weak. If he does, is he going to decline more job offers from major programs?
Weekend Observations
1. UF vs UT
It was business as usual for the Gators. The defense and special teams dominated the game and the offense took advantage of the opportunities that resulted from the other two units' efforts. Urban Meyer's plan to win this season has been simple, but effective: win the field position battle by playing great defense and not turning the ball over.
The offensive statistics have not been spectacular, but that is because they haven't really had to be. The Gators simply have not had to go very far to score. For those thinking the offense has been struggling, just consider that of Florida's 31 offensive possessions (I did not count possessions that ended with the Gators running the ball to end the half/game) this season, they have only had to punt 13 times. Since the Gators have not turned the ball over yet this season, this means they are scoring on 58% of their drives. Sounds pretty good to me.
The Gators are not going to match last years offensive numbers for two reasons: the new clock rules and the Gator defense. The new clock rules have taken away one to two possessions per game. The Gator defense has eliminated the need to take extra risks on offense. Last season, the coaches felt the need to score on every possession. This season they are much more comfortable punting the ball and letting the defense get the ball back for the offense. Hard to argue with this since the defense has forced 9 turnovers in three games and has only given up a total of 19 points.
As for the Vols performance, you really don't have to look any further than the recruiting rankings the past four years. The Gators' average recruiting class rank is 5.25 (including three Top 3 finishes the past three years) according to Rivals. The Vols come in at 16.25. Phil Fulmer has never been a great X's and O's coach, and when Tennessee was having success in the 90s and the earlier part of the decade, it was mostly due to their talent advantage. With that advantage gone the Vols are just a middle of the road SEC East team.
2. Ok Les Miles, you win.
I never thought that LSU would still be an elite team four years into the Les Miles era. Once Saban's players were gone, I thought LSU would regress back to the Gerry DiNardo years. That has not been the case. While it would be nearly impossible to duplicate Saban's recruiting efforts at LSU, Mile has come pretty close. LSU had the most talented team in the SEC from 2005-2007. I would say Florida and Georgia have caught up to them this season, but they are certainly still right up there.
Miles' game day coaching has been as impressive as his recruiting. You keep waiting for his gambles to cost him a big game, but it seems they work out every time. Emotion plays a huge role in college football, and Miles always seems to know what he needs to do to give his team the emotional edge.
I also expected the defense take a step back this season due to Bo Pelini leaving for the Nebraska head coaching job, but LSU looks as formidable as ever on that side of the ball. If Miles can go 2-1 against Florida, Georgia, and Alabama he will find himself in another SEC Championship Game playing for a spot in Miami.
3. Maybe Georgia should have traveled out west to play someone from the MWC.
Georgia manhandled an over matched Arizona State team. Georgia controlled the line of scrimmage the entire night, allowing Arizona State to rush for just 4 yards on 19 carries while the Dawgs were able to pound out 176 yards on the ground. This has become a fairly predictable stat line when top teams from the SEC take on out of conference opponents. It looks like Georgia will only be tested from inside the SEC this year.
There is a reason why the SEC had five of the top ten teams in last week's AP Poll. Every other conference except for the Big 12 is awful this season. Really, how do you even try to decipher the BCS conference rankings for the 3-6 slots? Here is a breakdown of each BCS conference and the amount of teams they have ranked:
Big East: 1 (#14 USF)
Pac 10: 2 (#1 USC, #22 Oregon)
ACC: 2 (#15 Wake Forest, #19 Clemson)
Big 10: 4 (#8 Wisconsin, #12 Penn St, #13 Ohio St, #21 Illinois)
Big 12: 5 (#2 Oklahoma, #5 Missouri, #7 Texas, #9 Texas Tech, #18 Kansas)
SEC: 6 (#3 Georgia, #4 Florida, #6 LSU, #10 Alabama, #16 Auburn, #25 Vanderbilt)
Because the Big East, Pac 10, and ACC didn't feel like fielding many Top 25 teams this season, mighty VANDERBILT, who has forever been the worst program in the SEC has cracked the Top 25. Pac 10 semi-contenders Arizona State, Oregon, and Cal have turned out to be duds. Hard to blame Oregon for falling short because of their QB situation, but their defense has also been woeful. In the Big 10, Ohio State and Illinois lost big to the only decent teams they've played this season, so they are only ranked because of their preseason rankings. Same goes for Clemson in the ACC and Kansas in the Big 12. Penn State has not yet played anyone decent.
4.The Jimbo Fisher Era has begun!
Some excitement was building in Tallahassee after the Seminoles demolished two FCS schools to open the season. Jimbo's offense was starting to take shape. 'Noles starting QB Christian Ponder displayed old school FSU cockiness by guaranteeing a victory. The Doak was rocking as Chief Osceola ran out to mid field to plant the flaming spear into the ground. The Seminole team gathered together and jumped up and down at midfield with anticipation.
And then Ponder was picked off on his first passing attempt and the 'Noles reverted back to the same team we have seen for the past seven years. You can't really even say they reverted because what they showed on offense was even worse than what we have become accustomed to seeing out of FSU. Seven turnovers and a 12-3 loss to Wake Forest. There were many negatives for Florida State in this game: the offensive line is worse than it's ever been, still no quarterback or running game, the best offensive play they have is still the jump ball. The worst part, though, had to be the realization that the Seminoles could not defeat a Wake Forest team that did not bring their A, B, or C game. Wake Forest did everything they could to keep them in the game and they still could not muster more than three points.
It was business as usual for the Gators. The defense and special teams dominated the game and the offense took advantage of the opportunities that resulted from the other two units' efforts. Urban Meyer's plan to win this season has been simple, but effective: win the field position battle by playing great defense and not turning the ball over.
The offensive statistics have not been spectacular, but that is because they haven't really had to be. The Gators simply have not had to go very far to score. For those thinking the offense has been struggling, just consider that of Florida's 31 offensive possessions (I did not count possessions that ended with the Gators running the ball to end the half/game) this season, they have only had to punt 13 times. Since the Gators have not turned the ball over yet this season, this means they are scoring on 58% of their drives. Sounds pretty good to me.
The Gators are not going to match last years offensive numbers for two reasons: the new clock rules and the Gator defense. The new clock rules have taken away one to two possessions per game. The Gator defense has eliminated the need to take extra risks on offense. Last season, the coaches felt the need to score on every possession. This season they are much more comfortable punting the ball and letting the defense get the ball back for the offense. Hard to argue with this since the defense has forced 9 turnovers in three games and has only given up a total of 19 points.
As for the Vols performance, you really don't have to look any further than the recruiting rankings the past four years. The Gators' average recruiting class rank is 5.25 (including three Top 3 finishes the past three years) according to Rivals. The Vols come in at 16.25. Phil Fulmer has never been a great X's and O's coach, and when Tennessee was having success in the 90s and the earlier part of the decade, it was mostly due to their talent advantage. With that advantage gone the Vols are just a middle of the road SEC East team.
2. Ok Les Miles, you win.
I never thought that LSU would still be an elite team four years into the Les Miles era. Once Saban's players were gone, I thought LSU would regress back to the Gerry DiNardo years. That has not been the case. While it would be nearly impossible to duplicate Saban's recruiting efforts at LSU, Mile has come pretty close. LSU had the most talented team in the SEC from 2005-2007. I would say Florida and Georgia have caught up to them this season, but they are certainly still right up there.
Miles' game day coaching has been as impressive as his recruiting. You keep waiting for his gambles to cost him a big game, but it seems they work out every time. Emotion plays a huge role in college football, and Miles always seems to know what he needs to do to give his team the emotional edge.
I also expected the defense take a step back this season due to Bo Pelini leaving for the Nebraska head coaching job, but LSU looks as formidable as ever on that side of the ball. If Miles can go 2-1 against Florida, Georgia, and Alabama he will find himself in another SEC Championship Game playing for a spot in Miami.
3. Maybe Georgia should have traveled out west to play someone from the MWC.
Georgia manhandled an over matched Arizona State team. Georgia controlled the line of scrimmage the entire night, allowing Arizona State to rush for just 4 yards on 19 carries while the Dawgs were able to pound out 176 yards on the ground. This has become a fairly predictable stat line when top teams from the SEC take on out of conference opponents. It looks like Georgia will only be tested from inside the SEC this year.
There is a reason why the SEC had five of the top ten teams in last week's AP Poll. Every other conference except for the Big 12 is awful this season. Really, how do you even try to decipher the BCS conference rankings for the 3-6 slots? Here is a breakdown of each BCS conference and the amount of teams they have ranked:
Big East: 1 (#14 USF)
Pac 10: 2 (#1 USC, #22 Oregon)
ACC: 2 (#15 Wake Forest, #19 Clemson)
Big 10: 4 (#8 Wisconsin, #12 Penn St, #13 Ohio St, #21 Illinois)
Big 12: 5 (#2 Oklahoma, #5 Missouri, #7 Texas, #9 Texas Tech, #18 Kansas)
SEC: 6 (#3 Georgia, #4 Florida, #6 LSU, #10 Alabama, #16 Auburn, #25 Vanderbilt)
Because the Big East, Pac 10, and ACC didn't feel like fielding many Top 25 teams this season, mighty VANDERBILT, who has forever been the worst program in the SEC has cracked the Top 25. Pac 10 semi-contenders Arizona State, Oregon, and Cal have turned out to be duds. Hard to blame Oregon for falling short because of their QB situation, but their defense has also been woeful. In the Big 10, Ohio State and Illinois lost big to the only decent teams they've played this season, so they are only ranked because of their preseason rankings. Same goes for Clemson in the ACC and Kansas in the Big 12. Penn State has not yet played anyone decent.
4.The Jimbo Fisher Era has begun!
Some excitement was building in Tallahassee after the Seminoles demolished two FCS schools to open the season. Jimbo's offense was starting to take shape. 'Noles starting QB Christian Ponder displayed old school FSU cockiness by guaranteeing a victory. The Doak was rocking as Chief Osceola ran out to mid field to plant the flaming spear into the ground. The Seminole team gathered together and jumped up and down at midfield with anticipation.
And then Ponder was picked off on his first passing attempt and the 'Noles reverted back to the same team we have seen for the past seven years. You can't really even say they reverted because what they showed on offense was even worse than what we have become accustomed to seeing out of FSU. Seven turnovers and a 12-3 loss to Wake Forest. There were many negatives for Florida State in this game: the offensive line is worse than it's ever been, still no quarterback or running game, the best offensive play they have is still the jump ball. The worst part, though, had to be the realization that the Seminoles could not defeat a Wake Forest team that did not bring their A, B, or C game. Wake Forest did everything they could to keep them in the game and they still could not muster more than three points.
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