I will be posting my thoughts on the game throughout the week.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Attack of the Mid-Majors
The gap between the haves and the have nots has slowly been increasing over the years in college football. One glance at this week's rankings and you'll notice that there are 3 Non-BCS teams in the coaches poll (Fresno State is ranked just outside of the Top 25 after their close loss to Wisconsin) and 4 in the AP.
The Mountain West Conference went 4-0 against the Pac 10 this weekend, and are 5-0 overall against the BCS conference this year. BYU annihilated UCLA 59-0. East Carolina has already knocked off two top 25 teams. We've seen the little guys knock off Pittsburgh and Oklahoma in BCS bowls over the past four years. Really, there are too many upsets to even mention in one space.
So that leaves the question... how are these teams pulling it off? I believe there are three reasons.
1. The talent pool is much deeper
Football is clearly the number one sport in America. Kids growing up now are more likely to drift towards football, especially in states like Florida and Texas. Basketball is really the only other sport that competes for their attention. With the 85 scholarship limit, the top programs can't sign all the talent, so it must go elsewhere.
2. Expanded coverage
A big selling point to recruits is television coverage. Kids want to play on TV. Fifteen years ago there were not nearly as many college football games on television as there are today. You can sit in front of the TV from noon until 2 AM and always have at least two games to watch. Television exposure is no longer limited to just the big time programs.
3. The spread offense
As we saw in the Appalachian State/Michigan game last year, the spread offense is a great talent equalizer. A less talented team is not going to win a game if their best guys are constantly going up against the superior team's best guys. In more conventional offenses, your best offensive skill players are going to be matched up against the defense's best players. In the spread offense you can create mismatches and have your best guy go against a 3rd or 4th string defensive back or linebacker. Eventually defenses will catch up with the spread scheme, and it may already be happening, but for now any spread offense has a chance to put up big numbers against a more talented defense as long as it as two or three playmakers.
The Mountain West Conference went 4-0 against the Pac 10 this weekend, and are 5-0 overall against the BCS conference this year. BYU annihilated UCLA 59-0. East Carolina has already knocked off two top 25 teams. We've seen the little guys knock off Pittsburgh and Oklahoma in BCS bowls over the past four years. Really, there are too many upsets to even mention in one space.
So that leaves the question... how are these teams pulling it off? I believe there are three reasons.
1. The talent pool is much deeper
Football is clearly the number one sport in America. Kids growing up now are more likely to drift towards football, especially in states like Florida and Texas. Basketball is really the only other sport that competes for their attention. With the 85 scholarship limit, the top programs can't sign all the talent, so it must go elsewhere.
2. Expanded coverage
A big selling point to recruits is television coverage. Kids want to play on TV. Fifteen years ago there were not nearly as many college football games on television as there are today. You can sit in front of the TV from noon until 2 AM and always have at least two games to watch. Television exposure is no longer limited to just the big time programs.
3. The spread offense
As we saw in the Appalachian State/Michigan game last year, the spread offense is a great talent equalizer. A less talented team is not going to win a game if their best guys are constantly going up against the superior team's best guys. In more conventional offenses, your best offensive skill players are going to be matched up against the defense's best players. In the spread offense you can create mismatches and have your best guy go against a 3rd or 4th string defensive back or linebacker. Eventually defenses will catch up with the spread scheme, and it may already be happening, but for now any spread offense has a chance to put up big numbers against a more talented defense as long as it as two or three playmakers.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Observations From This Week's Games
1. John David Booty was not a very good QB
USC "struggled" the past two years to back to back 11-2 Pac 10 and Rose Bowl champion seasons. Many blamed this on the Trojan's inability to create big plays and support the defense when it was having an off game. Looks like we found the problem. While John David Booty was good but not great (63% completion rating, 23-10 TD/INT ratio, 138 QB rating in 2007), Mark Sanchez has been fantastic with pretty much the same exact supporting cast (68% completion rating, 7-2 TD/INT ratio, 166 QB rating).
2. Ohio State still can't block or tackle anyone outside the Big 10
The #1 reason Ohio State has been embarrassed in their last three match ups against Top 2 teams is their inability to protect the quarterback. Florida, LSU, and USC all had talented defensive lines with lots of depth that manhandled OSU's offensive line. Against Florida, Ohio State was in the game until Florida's defense pressured Troy Smith into throwing an interception, stopped Ohio State on a 4th and 1, and forced Smith to fumble deep in OSU territory. These three plays lead to 17 points that put Ohio State away for good. Ohio State was actually leading LSU by 10 until the Tiger backfield started getting to Todd Boeckman and forced him to throw two INTs. Last night Boeckman was constantly under pressure. Funny enough, however, Boeckman's most costly mistake of the night (the 2nd quarter INT returned for a touchdown by Rey Maualuga) came when he had time to throw.
Even though it seems like OSU's defense has given up a ton of points in these games, a lot of the opposing team's scoring has come from taking advantage of OSU's offensive mistakes. That being said, OSU's defense does have trouble keeping up with speedy playmakers like Percy Harvin and Joe McKnight. Fortunately, or unfortunately, for OSU 99% of other defenses have the same problem.
3. Matt Stafford is going to make millions of dollars and I don't know why
The CBS broadcast of the Georgia vs. South Carolina game was the last straw for me. Listening to Verne Lundquist and Todd Blackledge gush over this kid is like listening to Special Ed teachers praise their retarded pupils for going an entire day without pissing their pants. Are you ready for the future Number One draft pick's current career college stats?
56% completion rating, 30-23 TD/INT ratio, 130 QB rating.
If you notice above, I posted John David Booty's 2007 stats and, I dunno about you, but I'd take Booty (who ended up a 5th round draft pick in a not-so-amazing draft for QBs). The breaking point for me came when Blackledge excused Stafford's mediocre stats because of all the deep shots he takes down field. Hmm... would you rather have a QB who completes 65%+ of his passes, doesn't make many mistakes, can move the chains, and will lead your team to 3-4 touchdown drives a game, OR the guy who completes 56% of his passes and maybe every once in a while will complete a 40 or 50 yard pass.
4. DOWN GOES CHARLIE!
Can't believe this isn't on YouTube yet. Maybe if Weiss dropped a few pounds he'd be agile enough to get out of the way. The best part of this story is he is refusing to rehab it. REPLACE ONE OF MY SIX MEALS A DAY WITH A WORK OUT REGIMEN?! GRRAAAARRRRR I'M ANGRY BRING ME MORE CHEESEBURGERS.
5. Auburn 3, Mississippi State 2
Auburn took the first of a 3 game series against Mississippi State 3-2 today... whoops SEC baseball doesn't start for another 5 months. Looks like Auburn is handling the transition to the spread offense about as well as Michigan is.
6. Todd Reesing is a bad ass
I hadn't really gotten a chance to watch him play until this past Friday night. He is one of the best I've ever seen at scrambling, planting his feet, and then delivering an accurate ball down field. Seems like USF should have had about 3 more sacks on the guy but he was able to elude the tacklers and then get the ball out in a hurry. Too bad he won't have an NFL career because he has the looks and size of a leprechaun.
7. Don't mean to toot my own horn, but...
Predictions:
Oregon 38, Purdue 24
Georgia 24, South Carolina 13
South Florida 31, Kansas 27
Wisconsin 20, Fresno State 17
USC 31, Ohio State 14
Results:
Oregon 32, Purdue 26
Georgia 14, South Carolina 7
South Florida 37, Kansas 34
Wisconsin 13, Fresno State 10
USC 35, Ohio State 3
USC "struggled" the past two years to back to back 11-2 Pac 10 and Rose Bowl champion seasons. Many blamed this on the Trojan's inability to create big plays and support the defense when it was having an off game. Looks like we found the problem. While John David Booty was good but not great (63% completion rating, 23-10 TD/INT ratio, 138 QB rating in 2007), Mark Sanchez has been fantastic with pretty much the same exact supporting cast (68% completion rating, 7-2 TD/INT ratio, 166 QB rating).
2. Ohio State still can't block or tackle anyone outside the Big 10
The #1 reason Ohio State has been embarrassed in their last three match ups against Top 2 teams is their inability to protect the quarterback. Florida, LSU, and USC all had talented defensive lines with lots of depth that manhandled OSU's offensive line. Against Florida, Ohio State was in the game until Florida's defense pressured Troy Smith into throwing an interception, stopped Ohio State on a 4th and 1, and forced Smith to fumble deep in OSU territory. These three plays lead to 17 points that put Ohio State away for good. Ohio State was actually leading LSU by 10 until the Tiger backfield started getting to Todd Boeckman and forced him to throw two INTs. Last night Boeckman was constantly under pressure. Funny enough, however, Boeckman's most costly mistake of the night (the 2nd quarter INT returned for a touchdown by Rey Maualuga) came when he had time to throw.
Even though it seems like OSU's defense has given up a ton of points in these games, a lot of the opposing team's scoring has come from taking advantage of OSU's offensive mistakes. That being said, OSU's defense does have trouble keeping up with speedy playmakers like Percy Harvin and Joe McKnight. Fortunately, or unfortunately, for OSU 99% of other defenses have the same problem.
3. Matt Stafford is going to make millions of dollars and I don't know why
The CBS broadcast of the Georgia vs. South Carolina game was the last straw for me. Listening to Verne Lundquist and Todd Blackledge gush over this kid is like listening to Special Ed teachers praise their retarded pupils for going an entire day without pissing their pants. Are you ready for the future Number One draft pick's current career college stats?
56% completion rating, 30-23 TD/INT ratio, 130 QB rating.
If you notice above, I posted John David Booty's 2007 stats and, I dunno about you, but I'd take Booty (who ended up a 5th round draft pick in a not-so-amazing draft for QBs). The breaking point for me came when Blackledge excused Stafford's mediocre stats because of all the deep shots he takes down field. Hmm... would you rather have a QB who completes 65%+ of his passes, doesn't make many mistakes, can move the chains, and will lead your team to 3-4 touchdown drives a game, OR the guy who completes 56% of his passes and maybe every once in a while will complete a 40 or 50 yard pass.
4. DOWN GOES CHARLIE!
Can't believe this isn't on YouTube yet. Maybe if Weiss dropped a few pounds he'd be agile enough to get out of the way. The best part of this story is he is refusing to rehab it. REPLACE ONE OF MY SIX MEALS A DAY WITH A WORK OUT REGIMEN?! GRRAAAARRRRR I'M ANGRY BRING ME MORE CHEESEBURGERS.
5. Auburn 3, Mississippi State 2
Auburn took the first of a 3 game series against Mississippi State 3-2 today... whoops SEC baseball doesn't start for another 5 months. Looks like Auburn is handling the transition to the spread offense about as well as Michigan is.
6. Todd Reesing is a bad ass
I hadn't really gotten a chance to watch him play until this past Friday night. He is one of the best I've ever seen at scrambling, planting his feet, and then delivering an accurate ball down field. Seems like USF should have had about 3 more sacks on the guy but he was able to elude the tacklers and then get the ball out in a hurry. Too bad he won't have an NFL career because he has the looks and size of a leprechaun.
7. Don't mean to toot my own horn, but...
Predictions:
Oregon 38, Purdue 24
Georgia 24, South Carolina 13
South Florida 31, Kansas 27
Wisconsin 20, Fresno State 17
USC 31, Ohio State 14
Results:
Oregon 32, Purdue 26
Georgia 14, South Carolina 7
South Florida 37, Kansas 34
Wisconsin 13, Fresno State 10
USC 35, Ohio State 3
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Thoughts and Predictions on the Five Biggest Games of the Weekend
5. Oregon @ Purdue
In the second best Pac 10 v Big 10 matchup of the weekend, two potent offenses face off in what promises to be a high scoring game. Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart are gone, but the Ducks have still managed to score 110 points in their first two games. Nate Costa originally won the starting job for Oregon, but he was injured during the preseason and will miss all of 2008. Justin Roper, who threw for four touchdowns against South Florida in last year's Sun Bowl, takes over and has done a decent job so far. The real stars of the Oregon offense have been running backs Jeremiah Johnson and LeGarette Blount. Oregon currently ranks fourth in the nation with 332 yards per game rushing.
Purdue on the other hand returns 2008 All-Big 10 quarterback Curtis Painter. Painter will be going up against a talented Oregon secondary that features one of college football's best safeties, Patrick Chung. Painter is a smart QB who can throw with good velocity and accuracy, however the Oregon back four should be able to keep his WRs in check.
The Oregon offense will control the game and the Duck's secondary will be just disruptive enough to slow down the Purdue passing attack.
Oregon 38, Purdue 24
4. Georgia @ South Carolina
It is always entertaining when the Ol' Ball Coach matches up against the Dawgs. Spurrier was able to knock off Georgia early last season before Knowshon Moreno emerged and UGA caught fire at the end of last season.
This is going to be a battle of defenses as South Carolina QB's Chris Smelley and Tommy Beecher have combined to throw 6 interceptions in their first two games. Georgia's offense has been impressive early, but it has yet to face a defense with a pulse. Georgia is averaging 237 yards per game on the ground, and it is no secret that stopping RBs Moreno and King is the key to shutting down the Georgia offense. South Carolina has done a decent job so far, allowing only 112 yards per game against two BCS opponents. If South Carolina can keep Georgia under 150 yards rushing and under 20 points, Spurrier has a shot at his second consecutive upset of Richt's Georgia squad.
The problem is, South Carolina just does not have enough on offense. South Carolina's best receiver, Kenny McKinley, will likely miss the game with a sore hamstring, and the South Carolina offensive line has had a tough time handling the pass rush so far. Even if the South Carolina defense can hold its own against Georgia, it is likely that the Bulldogs will be able to get into SC's backfield and force some QB mistakes.
Since the game is in Columbia, the Gamecocks will keep it close, but in the end they won't have the offensive fire power to overcome a more complete Georgia team.
Georgia 24, South Carolina 13
3. Kansas @ South Florida
Mark Mangino and Jim Leavitt were both once assistants on Bill Snyder's Kansas State staff in the early 90's. Last season both coaches put their respective programs on the map. USF once again has a chance to vault up the ratings by defeating a Top 15 opponent at home on a Friday night (Last year's victim was West Virginia).
The real match up here is the KU offense versus the USF defense. Former USF defensive line coach Dan McCarney packed his bags and left for Gainesville to replace departed UF defensive line coach Greg Mattison. The USF defensive line, and last year's breakout star George Selvie in particular, have had a tough time generating the amount of pressure on the QB that they did last season under McCarney's tutelage, but they have been stout against the run. Kansas has struggled mightily running the ball this season, managing only 3.7 ypc on the ground.
Kansas is also breaking in a pair of new tackles, so this may be the opportunity Selvie and Co. have been looking for to get going. If they can get to Kansas QB Todd Reesing they have an excellent shot at coming up with the home upset.
The USF offense appears to be improved, with a more mature Matt Grothe leading the attack. The Kansas defense is no slouch, though, giving up only 406 total yards in the first two games. They have not seen an offense the caliber of USF's yet.
South Florida 31, Kansas 27
2. Wisconsin @ Fresno State
Wisconsin has gotten off to slow starts in each of their first two games, and now they must travel to the west coast to face off against a very good Fresno St. squad who many believe could contend for a BCS bowl bid this year. Both squads are very similar in that they both rely on running the ball and playing good defense, while making just enough plays in the passing game to keep the chains moving.
Fresno State was able to shutdown the Ray Rice-less Rutgers running attack, while Wisconsin's defense has been dominant against Akron and Marshall. I believe the key to the game will be depth, and Wisconsin's ability to wear down the Fresno St. front seven will win them the game.
Wisconsin 20, Fresno State 17
1. Ohio State @ USC
This is the game most college football fans have been waiting for since LSU demolished OSU in last season's national championship game. The two schools have combined to play for or win the last six national championships, but oddly enough they have not faced each other since 1990.
Even though Mark Sanchez lit up the Virginia secondary in week one, I am still not sold on the USC passing game. Sanchez himself commented that he had so much time in the pocket he could have cooked some steaks. That won't happen against OSU. Everyone knows about the infinite amount of RBs Southern Cal has, but sometimes I think this hurts more than it helps as none of the backs ever get into any kind of rhythm. I think USC will try to keep the ball in the hands of Joe McKnight and CJ Gable for this game. They will have to use the run to setup the pass against OSU's talented secondary.
With or without Beanie Wells, OSU's offense has not fared well against defenses with elite speed like USC's. OSU may be able to run the ball against USC's reloaded defensive line, but I don't see how they are going to be able to make any plays throwing the ball. Eventually USC will be able to slow down the OSU running attack, and once they do that their is not much left for OSU to turn to. Like their QB, the OSU wide receivers are solid, but not great. If Pryor is kept on the bench, and I don't see how Tressel can keep him on the bench if they don't have Wells to carry the running game, OSU will struggle to score points.
I am sure by now Ohio State is tired of hearing they can't win the big game, but I don't think it will matter. Everyone insists that this Ohio State team is just as talented as the other contenders, but it seems like every time Ohio State has to prove that on the field they fail.
USC 31, Ohio State 14
In the second best Pac 10 v Big 10 matchup of the weekend, two potent offenses face off in what promises to be a high scoring game. Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart are gone, but the Ducks have still managed to score 110 points in their first two games. Nate Costa originally won the starting job for Oregon, but he was injured during the preseason and will miss all of 2008. Justin Roper, who threw for four touchdowns against South Florida in last year's Sun Bowl, takes over and has done a decent job so far. The real stars of the Oregon offense have been running backs Jeremiah Johnson and LeGarette Blount. Oregon currently ranks fourth in the nation with 332 yards per game rushing.
Purdue on the other hand returns 2008 All-Big 10 quarterback Curtis Painter. Painter will be going up against a talented Oregon secondary that features one of college football's best safeties, Patrick Chung. Painter is a smart QB who can throw with good velocity and accuracy, however the Oregon back four should be able to keep his WRs in check.
The Oregon offense will control the game and the Duck's secondary will be just disruptive enough to slow down the Purdue passing attack.
Oregon 38, Purdue 24
4. Georgia @ South Carolina
It is always entertaining when the Ol' Ball Coach matches up against the Dawgs. Spurrier was able to knock off Georgia early last season before Knowshon Moreno emerged and UGA caught fire at the end of last season.
This is going to be a battle of defenses as South Carolina QB's Chris Smelley and Tommy Beecher have combined to throw 6 interceptions in their first two games. Georgia's offense has been impressive early, but it has yet to face a defense with a pulse. Georgia is averaging 237 yards per game on the ground, and it is no secret that stopping RBs Moreno and King is the key to shutting down the Georgia offense. South Carolina has done a decent job so far, allowing only 112 yards per game against two BCS opponents. If South Carolina can keep Georgia under 150 yards rushing and under 20 points, Spurrier has a shot at his second consecutive upset of Richt's Georgia squad.
The problem is, South Carolina just does not have enough on offense. South Carolina's best receiver, Kenny McKinley, will likely miss the game with a sore hamstring, and the South Carolina offensive line has had a tough time handling the pass rush so far. Even if the South Carolina defense can hold its own against Georgia, it is likely that the Bulldogs will be able to get into SC's backfield and force some QB mistakes.
Since the game is in Columbia, the Gamecocks will keep it close, but in the end they won't have the offensive fire power to overcome a more complete Georgia team.
Georgia 24, South Carolina 13
3. Kansas @ South Florida
Mark Mangino and Jim Leavitt were both once assistants on Bill Snyder's Kansas State staff in the early 90's. Last season both coaches put their respective programs on the map. USF once again has a chance to vault up the ratings by defeating a Top 15 opponent at home on a Friday night (Last year's victim was West Virginia).
The real match up here is the KU offense versus the USF defense. Former USF defensive line coach Dan McCarney packed his bags and left for Gainesville to replace departed UF defensive line coach Greg Mattison. The USF defensive line, and last year's breakout star George Selvie in particular, have had a tough time generating the amount of pressure on the QB that they did last season under McCarney's tutelage, but they have been stout against the run. Kansas has struggled mightily running the ball this season, managing only 3.7 ypc on the ground.
Kansas is also breaking in a pair of new tackles, so this may be the opportunity Selvie and Co. have been looking for to get going. If they can get to Kansas QB Todd Reesing they have an excellent shot at coming up with the home upset.
The USF offense appears to be improved, with a more mature Matt Grothe leading the attack. The Kansas defense is no slouch, though, giving up only 406 total yards in the first two games. They have not seen an offense the caliber of USF's yet.
South Florida 31, Kansas 27
2. Wisconsin @ Fresno State
Wisconsin has gotten off to slow starts in each of their first two games, and now they must travel to the west coast to face off against a very good Fresno St. squad who many believe could contend for a BCS bowl bid this year. Both squads are very similar in that they both rely on running the ball and playing good defense, while making just enough plays in the passing game to keep the chains moving.
Fresno State was able to shutdown the Ray Rice-less Rutgers running attack, while Wisconsin's defense has been dominant against Akron and Marshall. I believe the key to the game will be depth, and Wisconsin's ability to wear down the Fresno St. front seven will win them the game.
Wisconsin 20, Fresno State 17
1. Ohio State @ USC
This is the game most college football fans have been waiting for since LSU demolished OSU in last season's national championship game. The two schools have combined to play for or win the last six national championships, but oddly enough they have not faced each other since 1990.
Even though Mark Sanchez lit up the Virginia secondary in week one, I am still not sold on the USC passing game. Sanchez himself commented that he had so much time in the pocket he could have cooked some steaks. That won't happen against OSU. Everyone knows about the infinite amount of RBs Southern Cal has, but sometimes I think this hurts more than it helps as none of the backs ever get into any kind of rhythm. I think USC will try to keep the ball in the hands of Joe McKnight and CJ Gable for this game. They will have to use the run to setup the pass against OSU's talented secondary.
With or without Beanie Wells, OSU's offense has not fared well against defenses with elite speed like USC's. OSU may be able to run the ball against USC's reloaded defensive line, but I don't see how they are going to be able to make any plays throwing the ball. Eventually USC will be able to slow down the OSU running attack, and once they do that their is not much left for OSU to turn to. Like their QB, the OSU wide receivers are solid, but not great. If Pryor is kept on the bench, and I don't see how Tressel can keep him on the bench if they don't have Wells to carry the running game, OSU will struggle to score points.
I am sure by now Ohio State is tired of hearing they can't win the big game, but I don't think it will matter. Everyone insists that this Ohio State team is just as talented as the other contenders, but it seems like every time Ohio State has to prove that on the field they fail.
USC 31, Ohio State 14
Heeeeere comes the college football blog!
Welcome to the initial post of my college football blog, Out of the Tunnel. Not a day (probably not an hour) goes by that I don't think about college football or something college football related, so I thought it would be a good idea to put my thoughts down in this blog.
I am a big time Florida Gator fan and a fan of the SEC in general (Yes, I'm one of those idiots chanting S-E-C at the end of each SEC victory against a non-conference opponent). However, I will try to put all biases aside and take an objective look at major stories and match ups. This should be fun.
I am a big time Florida Gator fan and a fan of the SEC in general (Yes, I'm one of those idiots chanting S-E-C at the end of each SEC victory against a non-conference opponent). However, I will try to put all biases aside and take an objective look at major stories and match ups. This should be fun.
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