When going for the game winning/tying field goal, how hard is it to call timeout with 4 seconds or less left? Why would you call a timeout and leave enough time for the opposing team to have a chance with a kickoff return? I mean, how simple is this? And why can't any coach do it? We saw Mike Leach do it last week for Texas Tech, and now Kirk Ferentz did it this week.
Also, nice work on wasting two timeouts on one challenge, Les Miles. You deserved to lose that game, and you did.
Saturday, November 8, 2008
The Football Gods Have Spoken
Anyone who follows college football knows Penn State would have gotten beat down by either the SEC or Big 12 champ in the national title game, and the Big 10 would have ruined a third straight title game. Now that PSU is out of the picture, we can have the real championship game between the Big 12 and the SEC (or maybe USC if the Big 12 or SEC Champ finishes with 2 losses).
This match up is much more exciting because the two leagues have been battling all season for title of best conference. The SEC started the season #1, but with Tennessee and Auburn suffering through unforeseen down seasons, the Big 12 has risen up thanks to the amount of great quarterbacks in the league.
Adding to the potential story lines of an SEC vs. Big 12 match up is the probability that the QB of the Big 12 champ will be the Heisman winner. Imagine Florida vs. Texas with Heisman winners Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy dueling it out.
This match up is much more exciting because the two leagues have been battling all season for title of best conference. The SEC started the season #1, but with Tennessee and Auburn suffering through unforeseen down seasons, the Big 12 has risen up thanks to the amount of great quarterbacks in the league.
Adding to the potential story lines of an SEC vs. Big 12 match up is the probability that the QB of the Big 12 champ will be the Heisman winner. Imagine Florida vs. Texas with Heisman winners Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy dueling it out.
Monday, November 3, 2008
AD Simulator 2008
With Fulmer being forced out, I thought it'd be a good time to go over the guidelines for firing your old coach and hiring a new one for a major college football program.
The most important part of this process is to know who your replacement is before you get rid of the old guy. If there is someone out there that you know will come in and do a better job than the person you currently have, then make the change. If not, you have to stick it out with your current coach until you can find his replacement.
There is nothing dumber in college football than change for the sake of change. The college game is not like the NFL where there are two or three different offensive and defensive philosophies, and all the players are suited to perform in these same philosophies. There are many different kinds of offenses and defenses in the college game, and you're going to need to recruit players specifically for your system. If you hire a new coach it is going to take him 3-4 years to get his players to run his system. If the guy you hire doesn't work out, then the next guy is going to need the same 3-4 year period. One bad hire can set you back almost a decade. So as I said, do not make the change unless you're certain you can get someone better.
Now, how do you find the right guy? All great college football coaches possess at least two of these three qualities:
1. Ability to assemble a high quality coaching staff
Coordinators and position coaches are more important in college than they are in the NFL. They handle the majority of recruiting and they are vital to the development of players. Bobby Bowden went from genius to senile old man when Mark Richt left, Phil Fulmer can't run an offense without David Cutcliffe, Tommy Tuberville is on the hot seat after making one bad coordinator hire, Randy Shannon found himself a defensive coordinator and the 'Canes went from 5-7 to bowl eligible with 3 games remaining.
2. Recruiting skills/Roster Management
Can you recruit great players? I am not just talking about the 5 star can't-miss prospects. You also must be able to identify the hidden gems like Michael Crabtree (2 stars), Brandon James (2 stars), and Chase Daniel (3 stars).
Another important part of this is recruiting for depth. You can go out and have the #1 recruiting class in the nation, but if that class has 5 RBs, 6 WRs, 8 LBs, and 3 Safeties, you did a bad job. You must recruit contributors at each position every year. You're not always going to be able to get All-American calibur athletes, but you need to get guys who can provide solid play until the All-Americans arrive. Depth is one of, if not the most important, aspects of any championship calibur team. It helps with injuries, it makes the starters better (they will have to constantly be improving if they don't want to get passed up on the depth chart), and it can be used to wear down opponents who lack depth. I would take a team with no-name players and quality depth at each position over a team with three or four stars and no depth.
3. Able to put together an excellent game plan and make effective game day adjustments
Pretty self-explanatory. Once you have the players, you have to know how to position them to be successful.
So now that we know what makes a good coach, let's see which possible replacements meet the criteria and which don't.
Tier 1 (Potentially meets all 3):
1. Chris Petersen
2. Mike Leach
Tier 2 (Could possibly meet 2 of 3):
3. Tim Brewster
4. Brian Kelly
5. Lane Kiffin
6. Kyle Wittingham
Tier 3 (Probable college head coach busts):
7. Will Muschamp
8. Jon Gruden
9. Bill Cowher
To be honest, I haven't done much research on all the potential coaching prospects, but these are the names that have been floating around. If at all possible, I think the major college programs should target head coaches at smaller programs that have had continued success. Coordinators are risky because you don't know how well they will transition to the head coach position. Ex-NFL head coaches are extremely risky because you can't succeed running a college program like an NFL franchise. What about Pete Carrol you ask? Carrol ran his NFL teams like a college program, which is why he wasn't that great as an NFL coach.
The most important part of this process is to know who your replacement is before you get rid of the old guy. If there is someone out there that you know will come in and do a better job than the person you currently have, then make the change. If not, you have to stick it out with your current coach until you can find his replacement.
There is nothing dumber in college football than change for the sake of change. The college game is not like the NFL where there are two or three different offensive and defensive philosophies, and all the players are suited to perform in these same philosophies. There are many different kinds of offenses and defenses in the college game, and you're going to need to recruit players specifically for your system. If you hire a new coach it is going to take him 3-4 years to get his players to run his system. If the guy you hire doesn't work out, then the next guy is going to need the same 3-4 year period. One bad hire can set you back almost a decade. So as I said, do not make the change unless you're certain you can get someone better.
Now, how do you find the right guy? All great college football coaches possess at least two of these three qualities:
1. Ability to assemble a high quality coaching staff
Coordinators and position coaches are more important in college than they are in the NFL. They handle the majority of recruiting and they are vital to the development of players. Bobby Bowden went from genius to senile old man when Mark Richt left, Phil Fulmer can't run an offense without David Cutcliffe, Tommy Tuberville is on the hot seat after making one bad coordinator hire, Randy Shannon found himself a defensive coordinator and the 'Canes went from 5-7 to bowl eligible with 3 games remaining.
2. Recruiting skills/Roster Management
Can you recruit great players? I am not just talking about the 5 star can't-miss prospects. You also must be able to identify the hidden gems like Michael Crabtree (2 stars), Brandon James (2 stars), and Chase Daniel (3 stars).
Another important part of this is recruiting for depth. You can go out and have the #1 recruiting class in the nation, but if that class has 5 RBs, 6 WRs, 8 LBs, and 3 Safeties, you did a bad job. You must recruit contributors at each position every year. You're not always going to be able to get All-American calibur athletes, but you need to get guys who can provide solid play until the All-Americans arrive. Depth is one of, if not the most important, aspects of any championship calibur team. It helps with injuries, it makes the starters better (they will have to constantly be improving if they don't want to get passed up on the depth chart), and it can be used to wear down opponents who lack depth. I would take a team with no-name players and quality depth at each position over a team with three or four stars and no depth.
3. Able to put together an excellent game plan and make effective game day adjustments
Pretty self-explanatory. Once you have the players, you have to know how to position them to be successful.
So now that we know what makes a good coach, let's see which possible replacements meet the criteria and which don't.
Tier 1 (Potentially meets all 3):
1. Chris Petersen
2. Mike Leach
Tier 2 (Could possibly meet 2 of 3):
3. Tim Brewster
4. Brian Kelly
5. Lane Kiffin
6. Kyle Wittingham
Tier 3 (Probable college head coach busts):
7. Will Muschamp
8. Jon Gruden
9. Bill Cowher
To be honest, I haven't done much research on all the potential coaching prospects, but these are the names that have been floating around. If at all possible, I think the major college programs should target head coaches at smaller programs that have had continued success. Coordinators are risky because you don't know how well they will transition to the head coach position. Ex-NFL head coaches are extremely risky because you can't succeed running a college program like an NFL franchise. What about Pete Carrol you ask? Carrol ran his NFL teams like a college program, which is why he wasn't that great as an NFL coach.
Random Thoughts From The Weekend
1. Big 12 South vs. The SEC
The top of the polls has been dominated by the SEC and the Big 12 South this season. Any championship game that doesn't feature a team from the Big 12's South Division and the SEC Champ will be a disappointment. Who cares what the final records end up being, the BCS is supposed to put the two best teams in the championship game, and the two best teams this year will be the Big 12 and SEC Champions. These blowout championship games featuring one overmatched team against a proven contender are just not good for college football. Which leads me to my next thought...
2. Penn State and the Big 10
At the very least, the Big 10 needs to add a championship game. It is just not fair that these Big 10 teams can get away with playing one or two big games a year and then coast in to the BCS Championship Game. If Penn State wins out, which it should, it is going to end up getting pasted by whichever SEC or Big 12 team they face (The only team they could hang with for a little while is Alabama, but Alabama would still beat them convincingly in the end.)
The Big 10 won't add a championship game until they feel they absolutely need to. For one, they'd need to add one more team to even out the divisions. Outside of Notre Dame, I don't think the Big 10 is too excited about any possible additions to its conference. Also, do you put Ohio State and Michigan in the same division? Separate divisions? If they play in separate divisions, their annual rivalry game would sometimes be rendered meaningless since it would take place the week before the championship game, and you'd have to figure a good portion of the time OSU will be facing Michigan in that championship game (assuming RichRod can turn things around). If you put them in the same division, than the other Big 10 division could end up like the Big 12 North and lack star power.
3. If I Had A Heisman Vote...
It would look like this:
1. Graham Harrel
2. Colt McCoy
3. Tim Tebow
4. Sam Bradford
5. Michael Crabtree
The fifth spot could also go to Dez Bryant, who has better stats than Crabtree, but Crabtree produced arguably the signature play of this college football season, so he gets the nod for now. The two face off against each other this week in Lubbock.
4. Bye, Phil
I didn't really think Fulmer would be fired this season, but after UT's performance against South Carolina it looks like it is inevitable that the Dean of SEC Coaches will be getting the pink slip. The Vols don't just lose, they don't even compete. I didn't think UT had another 2005 in them, but they are well on there way to another losing season. Even worse for Vol fans, it doesn't look like next year will be any better, regardless of who the coach is.
The top of the polls has been dominated by the SEC and the Big 12 South this season. Any championship game that doesn't feature a team from the Big 12's South Division and the SEC Champ will be a disappointment. Who cares what the final records end up being, the BCS is supposed to put the two best teams in the championship game, and the two best teams this year will be the Big 12 and SEC Champions. These blowout championship games featuring one overmatched team against a proven contender are just not good for college football. Which leads me to my next thought...
2. Penn State and the Big 10
At the very least, the Big 10 needs to add a championship game. It is just not fair that these Big 10 teams can get away with playing one or two big games a year and then coast in to the BCS Championship Game. If Penn State wins out, which it should, it is going to end up getting pasted by whichever SEC or Big 12 team they face (The only team they could hang with for a little while is Alabama, but Alabama would still beat them convincingly in the end.)
The Big 10 won't add a championship game until they feel they absolutely need to. For one, they'd need to add one more team to even out the divisions. Outside of Notre Dame, I don't think the Big 10 is too excited about any possible additions to its conference. Also, do you put Ohio State and Michigan in the same division? Separate divisions? If they play in separate divisions, their annual rivalry game would sometimes be rendered meaningless since it would take place the week before the championship game, and you'd have to figure a good portion of the time OSU will be facing Michigan in that championship game (assuming RichRod can turn things around). If you put them in the same division, than the other Big 10 division could end up like the Big 12 North and lack star power.
3. If I Had A Heisman Vote...
It would look like this:
1. Graham Harrel
2. Colt McCoy
3. Tim Tebow
4. Sam Bradford
5. Michael Crabtree
The fifth spot could also go to Dez Bryant, who has better stats than Crabtree, but Crabtree produced arguably the signature play of this college football season, so he gets the nod for now. The two face off against each other this week in Lubbock.
4. Bye, Phil
I didn't really think Fulmer would be fired this season, but after UT's performance against South Carolina it looks like it is inevitable that the Dean of SEC Coaches will be getting the pink slip. The Vols don't just lose, they don't even compete. I didn't think UT had another 2005 in them, but they are well on there way to another losing season. Even worse for Vol fans, it doesn't look like next year will be any better, regardless of who the coach is.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Texas-Texas Tech
Is this finally the week Texas goes down? I think so. Two things:
1. Texas has played their three previous big games either at home or on a neutral field, this one is on the road.
2. Texas is starting to wear down.
Texas' one weakness is its secondary, which does not exactly bode well when going up against Texas Tech and Michael Crabtree. Talent-wise, Texas of course has the advantage, but it is just too hard to beat a top 12 team four weeks in a row.
At this point you can bet that Texas is becoming both physically and mentally drained. Many are calling this the biggest game in Texas Tech history. Not exactly a great combo if you're a Texas fan. If this game were in Austin the 'Horns would be able to feed off the crowd for energy, but that is not going to be possible on the road.
Texas Tech's defense isn't going to stop Texas, but it will slow it down just enough for Texas Tech to come out with the win.
Texas Tech 49, Texas 45.
1. Texas has played their three previous big games either at home or on a neutral field, this one is on the road.
2. Texas is starting to wear down.
Texas' one weakness is its secondary, which does not exactly bode well when going up against Texas Tech and Michael Crabtree. Talent-wise, Texas of course has the advantage, but it is just too hard to beat a top 12 team four weeks in a row.
At this point you can bet that Texas is becoming both physically and mentally drained. Many are calling this the biggest game in Texas Tech history. Not exactly a great combo if you're a Texas fan. If this game were in Austin the 'Horns would be able to feed off the crowd for energy, but that is not going to be possible on the road.
Texas Tech's defense isn't going to stop Texas, but it will slow it down just enough for Texas Tech to come out with the win.
Texas Tech 49, Texas 45.
Florida-Georgia
Not much needs to be said about this one. Georgia danced its way to a 42-30 win last season, in large part due to Knowshon Moreno running for 188 yards and 3 TDs. Everyone talks about the end zone celebration, but in reality that had little to do with the outcome of the game. After Georgia drew two unsportsmanlike penalties for the celebration, the Gators got the ball and scored within the next two plays.
Georgia was able to win the game because the Florida defense could not tackle, Tebow was playing with one arm, and the offense did not execute during crucial parts of the game. This year, Tebow is healthy and an improved Gator defense will be hyped to make up for last year's game.
These two teams are basically the same as last year. Georgia's offensive and defensive lines are not quite what they were a year ago due to some injuries, but the emergence of A.J. Green at the wideout position has led to an improved Georgia passing attack. Florida lost playmaker Bubba Caldwell, but has finally found a running game with Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey. The Florida defense returns everyone but Tony Joiner, who has been ably replaced by Ahmad Black (3 INTs, 2 of them returned for TDs).
This game falls on the shoulders of the Georgia defense. Georgia's offense needs to rely on Knowhson Moreno. Alabama was able to gash the Georgia D on the ground, keeping Moreno off the field, and by building a large first half lead they took Moreno completely out of the game and the Dawgs were never able to recover. Stafford is more than capable of making big plays, but he is too inconsistent to be solely relied on in a shootout. The Gator offense is far more explosive than Alabama's, and the Gators feature a running attack just as good as the Tide's. The Bulldogs will have to find a way to keep Florida out of the end zone early.
The Gator defense will surely load the box to stop Moreno. I wouldn't be surprised if we see true freshman Will Hill make a name for himself in this game (If he hasn't already with his seemingly endless amount of special teams tackles), as he is built with the perfect amount of size and speed to move up from his safety position and contain Moreno.
Georgia will keep this one close in the first half, but the Gators will break it open in the second half due to their depth along the offensive and defensive line. By the end of the third quarter the Dawgs will have to abandon the running game and rely on Stafford, and he won't be able to get it done.
Gators 45, Georgia 28.
Georgia was able to win the game because the Florida defense could not tackle, Tebow was playing with one arm, and the offense did not execute during crucial parts of the game. This year, Tebow is healthy and an improved Gator defense will be hyped to make up for last year's game.
These two teams are basically the same as last year. Georgia's offensive and defensive lines are not quite what they were a year ago due to some injuries, but the emergence of A.J. Green at the wideout position has led to an improved Georgia passing attack. Florida lost playmaker Bubba Caldwell, but has finally found a running game with Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey. The Florida defense returns everyone but Tony Joiner, who has been ably replaced by Ahmad Black (3 INTs, 2 of them returned for TDs).
This game falls on the shoulders of the Georgia defense. Georgia's offense needs to rely on Knowhson Moreno. Alabama was able to gash the Georgia D on the ground, keeping Moreno off the field, and by building a large first half lead they took Moreno completely out of the game and the Dawgs were never able to recover. Stafford is more than capable of making big plays, but he is too inconsistent to be solely relied on in a shootout. The Gator offense is far more explosive than Alabama's, and the Gators feature a running attack just as good as the Tide's. The Bulldogs will have to find a way to keep Florida out of the end zone early.
The Gator defense will surely load the box to stop Moreno. I wouldn't be surprised if we see true freshman Will Hill make a name for himself in this game (If he hasn't already with his seemingly endless amount of special teams tackles), as he is built with the perfect amount of size and speed to move up from his safety position and contain Moreno.
Georgia will keep this one close in the first half, but the Gators will break it open in the second half due to their depth along the offensive and defensive line. By the end of the third quarter the Dawgs will have to abandon the running game and rely on Stafford, and he won't be able to get it done.
Gators 45, Georgia 28.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
"Ok Les Miles, you win" Addendum
Earlier this year I made a post about Les Miles finally proving he belongs among the SEC's elite when it comes to coaches after LSU pulled out a last second victory over Auburn. Obviously two things have changed since that post:
1. Auburn has proven to be terrible.
2. LSU has lost two games by a combined 44 points.
No one really expected big things out of the offense after Ryan Perrilloux was booted off the team, but the defense has not been very impressive either. The personnel is still there, notably on the defensive line, but Bo Pelini is definitely missed. Miles has lost two games in each of his first three seasons, and he sits at two losses so far this season with Alabama still on the schedule.
1. Auburn has proven to be terrible.
2. LSU has lost two games by a combined 44 points.
No one really expected big things out of the offense after Ryan Perrilloux was booted off the team, but the defense has not been very impressive either. The personnel is still there, notably on the defensive line, but Bo Pelini is definitely missed. Miles has lost two games in each of his first three seasons, and he sits at two losses so far this season with Alabama still on the schedule.
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