Two interesting developments for the national championship game today...
1. DeMarco Murray Out
Starting Oklahoma running back and kick returner DeMarco Murray will miss the game. I don't think this will hurt Oklahoma's running game too much, as backup Chris Brown actually has rushed for more yards than Murray. Where it's going to hurt is on kick returns and receptions out of the backfield. Murray had a Percy Harvin like ability to line up in the back field and then motion into the slot and catch passes. With Chris Brown in the game, the Gators won't have to guess as much as they would if Murray was in the game.
2. Dan Mullen Will Call Plays
Not sure how I feel about this. If Meyer thinks it's best, then I can't really argue. I'd imagine Meyer demanded that Mullen stay in Gainesville and concentrate solely on the BCS Championship game. Even if this is the case, I can't help but feel that Mullen at least will be somewhat distracted.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
9. Chick-fil-A Bowl - Georgia Tech vs. LSU
An interesting matchup because the two teams are heading in different directions. No one expected much out of Georgia Tech, but they managed to go 9-3 and made a late push for the ACC Championship. LSU started out in the top 10 but ended up 7-5 due to inexperienced QB play and a surprisingly awful defense.
LSU has one advantage in this game because they have a whole month to prepare for Georgia Tech's unusual rushing attack. Will it matter though? LSU was supposed to have one of the best defensive lines in college football, but in big games against Florida and Georgia the defensive line wasn't much of a factor.
On the other side of the football, LSU will have to coach up freshman QB Jordan Jefferson to go against a decent Georgia Tech defense. Jefferson has made less mistakes than Jarett Lee, but he hasn't really been able to move the offense either.
LSU has one advantage in this game because they have a whole month to prepare for Georgia Tech's unusual rushing attack. Will it matter though? LSU was supposed to have one of the best defensive lines in college football, but in big games against Florida and Georgia the defensive line wasn't much of a factor.
On the other side of the football, LSU will have to coach up freshman QB Jordan Jefferson to go against a decent Georgia Tech defense. Jefferson has made less mistakes than Jarett Lee, but he hasn't really been able to move the offense either.
Monday, December 15, 2008
Top 10 Bowl Games
Over the next ten days I will take a look at what I think are the ten best bowl games, starting with...
#10. Hawaii Bowl - Hawaii vs. Notre Dame
This one creeps in at the #10 spot for two reasons:
1. If Notre Dame can't end its nine game bowl losing streak against Hawaii then it might actually be possible that they never win another bowl game again.
2. Cheeseburger Charlie is officially on the one-more-bad-season-and-you're-gone hot seat. No one is going to be saying the Irish are back if they win this game, but at least a win will be something to build on going into next year's do-or-die season.
As for the game itself... it should be pretty close, because these two teams are the definition of mediocrity. Neither of them do anything particularly well, but they are also not totally inept.
#10. Hawaii Bowl - Hawaii vs. Notre Dame
This one creeps in at the #10 spot for two reasons:
1. If Notre Dame can't end its nine game bowl losing streak against Hawaii then it might actually be possible that they never win another bowl game again.
2. Cheeseburger Charlie is officially on the one-more-bad-season-and-you're-gone hot seat. No one is going to be saying the Irish are back if they win this game, but at least a win will be something to build on going into next year's do-or-die season.
As for the game itself... it should be pretty close, because these two teams are the definition of mediocrity. Neither of them do anything particularly well, but they are also not totally inept.
Saturday, December 13, 2008
The Cycle Is Nearly Complete
As recently as the beginning of this season it looked like the SEC was set to maintain it's reputation as the best conference in college football for quite some time. The league boasted five national championship winning coaches (Steve Spurrier, Phil Fulmer, Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Les Miles), one coach who led his team to an undefeated season (Tommy Tuberville), an SEC championship caliber coach (Mark Richt), two proven winners (Houston Nutt, Bobby Petrino), and two coaches capable of making both Kentucky and Vanderbilt respectable (Rich Brooks, Bobby Johnson). The only weak link was Sylvester Croom at Mississippi State.
Fast forward to December 13th and the SEC coaching landscape looks a lot different. Here is how I think each school's stock has changed since the beginning of the season:
Alabama - Stock: Way Up
Nick Saban has turned Bama around in just his second season. Alabama's stock has risen more than any other school's this season. One of the few bright spots in the SEC this season.
Arkansas - Stock: Unchanged
The record will say that Arkansas' stock took a bit of a hit this season, but that is not the case. Arkansas had to replace two first round running back talents and much of the defense. Bobby Petrino's young team improved as the season went on and with Ryan Mallet ready to take over the QB position next season, Arkansas may be ready to make some noise in the west.
Auburn - Stock: Way Down
Gene Chizik replaced Tommy Tuberville. This is a real head scratcher. Really, Auburn's president should fire the AD and Chizik tomorrow. Just an unexcusable hire. What an absolute train wreck.
Florida - Stock: Up
Urban Meyer has proven that he will have the Gators in contention for national titles for years to come. It might be hard to believe, but this is just the beginning. This Florida team is still very young. If Brandon Spikes does not leave early, the Gators will return every starter from what is already a dominant defense.
Georgia - Stock: Down
You can blame the disappointing season on injuries, but true championship caliber teams have enough depth to overcome some personnel losses. Richt may never have a better QB/RB/WR trio than Stafford/Moreno/Green.
Kentucky - Stock: Unchanged
With a respectable 6-6 season, Rich Brooks has shown that he can keep Kentucky competitive in the SEC.
LSU - Stock: Way Down
I would have been willing to give Miles a pass on this season because of the Perilloux ordeal, but the QB position was not the only reason LSU stunk this season. The defense was routinely lit up and the Tigers managed to lose three games at home. Miles is going to have to turn it around quick or he'll be gone in two years.
Mississippi - Stock: Up
Houston Nutt took a team that did not win a single SEC team last year and led them to victories in Baton Rouge and Gainesville. Ed Orgeron recruited well and now Nutt is reaping the benefits. If Nutt can maintain this kind of talent in Oxford he might be able to win an SEC West and maybe even an SEC championship.
Mississippi State - Stock: Unchanged
This is definitely the most intriguing of all the new hires. MSU was in desperate need of some offense, so they went out and hired arguably the best offensive coordinator in the SEC. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. Did Meyer make Mullen? Was he only successful because of Tebow and Harvin? If Mullen is the real deal, will he have all the tools necessary to be successful at MSU?
South Carolina - Stock: Down
The 'Ol Ball Coach has gotten decent play out of his defense, but he has yet to get the offense up to Spurrier standards. It is looking less and less likely that Spurrier will be able to accomplish any of his goals at South Carolina.
Tennessee - Stock: Way Down
Even though Tennessee was picked to finish third in the SEC East this year, no one saw 5-7 coming. Fulmer is gone. Kiffin may or may not turn out to be a good hire, but you'd have to think that Tennessee needed to get a bigger name than this. When the fanbase is more excited about the assistants being brought in than the actual head coach... there might be a problem.
Vanderbilt - Stock: Slightly Up
Vandy finally gains bowl eligibility.
Conference Outlook:
The SEC is starting to look like the Big 12 did earlier this decade. Two dominant teams (Florida and Alabama) and then a bunch of middle of the road and lower tiered teams. LSU and Georgia are going to need to step it up over the next few seasons or Meyer and Saban are going to run away with the conference.
Fast forward to December 13th and the SEC coaching landscape looks a lot different. Here is how I think each school's stock has changed since the beginning of the season:
Alabama - Stock: Way Up
Nick Saban has turned Bama around in just his second season. Alabama's stock has risen more than any other school's this season. One of the few bright spots in the SEC this season.
Arkansas - Stock: Unchanged
The record will say that Arkansas' stock took a bit of a hit this season, but that is not the case. Arkansas had to replace two first round running back talents and much of the defense. Bobby Petrino's young team improved as the season went on and with Ryan Mallet ready to take over the QB position next season, Arkansas may be ready to make some noise in the west.
Auburn - Stock: Way Down
Gene Chizik replaced Tommy Tuberville. This is a real head scratcher. Really, Auburn's president should fire the AD and Chizik tomorrow. Just an unexcusable hire. What an absolute train wreck.
Florida - Stock: Up
Urban Meyer has proven that he will have the Gators in contention for national titles for years to come. It might be hard to believe, but this is just the beginning. This Florida team is still very young. If Brandon Spikes does not leave early, the Gators will return every starter from what is already a dominant defense.
Georgia - Stock: Down
You can blame the disappointing season on injuries, but true championship caliber teams have enough depth to overcome some personnel losses. Richt may never have a better QB/RB/WR trio than Stafford/Moreno/Green.
Kentucky - Stock: Unchanged
With a respectable 6-6 season, Rich Brooks has shown that he can keep Kentucky competitive in the SEC.
LSU - Stock: Way Down
I would have been willing to give Miles a pass on this season because of the Perilloux ordeal, but the QB position was not the only reason LSU stunk this season. The defense was routinely lit up and the Tigers managed to lose three games at home. Miles is going to have to turn it around quick or he'll be gone in two years.
Mississippi - Stock: Up
Houston Nutt took a team that did not win a single SEC team last year and led them to victories in Baton Rouge and Gainesville. Ed Orgeron recruited well and now Nutt is reaping the benefits. If Nutt can maintain this kind of talent in Oxford he might be able to win an SEC West and maybe even an SEC championship.
Mississippi State - Stock: Unchanged
This is definitely the most intriguing of all the new hires. MSU was in desperate need of some offense, so they went out and hired arguably the best offensive coordinator in the SEC. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. Did Meyer make Mullen? Was he only successful because of Tebow and Harvin? If Mullen is the real deal, will he have all the tools necessary to be successful at MSU?
South Carolina - Stock: Down
The 'Ol Ball Coach has gotten decent play out of his defense, but he has yet to get the offense up to Spurrier standards. It is looking less and less likely that Spurrier will be able to accomplish any of his goals at South Carolina.
Tennessee - Stock: Way Down
Even though Tennessee was picked to finish third in the SEC East this year, no one saw 5-7 coming. Fulmer is gone. Kiffin may or may not turn out to be a good hire, but you'd have to think that Tennessee needed to get a bigger name than this. When the fanbase is more excited about the assistants being brought in than the actual head coach... there might be a problem.
Vanderbilt - Stock: Slightly Up
Vandy finally gains bowl eligibility.
Conference Outlook:
The SEC is starting to look like the Big 12 did earlier this decade. Two dominant teams (Florida and Alabama) and then a bunch of middle of the road and lower tiered teams. LSU and Georgia are going to need to step it up over the next few seasons or Meyer and Saban are going to run away with the conference.
All-Overrated / All-Disappointment Team
The definitive list of guys who get way too much hype for no reason at all. Not all positions will be filled.
Offense
QB - Matthew Stafford, Georgia
RB - Javon Ringer, Michigan State
RB - Beanie Wells, Ohio State
RB - James Davis, Clemson
WR - Brian Robiskie, Ohio State
WR - Aaron Kelly, Clemson
Defense
DE - George Selvie, South Florida
DT - Ricky Jean-Francois, Louisiana State
LB - James Laurinaitis, Ohio State
CB - Malcom Jenkins, Ohio State
S - Myron Rolle, Florida State
S - Rashad Johnson, Alabama
Offense
QB - Matthew Stafford, Georgia
RB - Javon Ringer, Michigan State
RB - Beanie Wells, Ohio State
RB - James Davis, Clemson
WR - Brian Robiskie, Ohio State
WR - Aaron Kelly, Clemson
Defense
DE - George Selvie, South Florida
DT - Ricky Jean-Francois, Louisiana State
LB - James Laurinaitis, Ohio State
CB - Malcom Jenkins, Ohio State
S - Myron Rolle, Florida State
S - Rashad Johnson, Alabama
My First Team All-America Selections
If this list is a little SEC heavy... TOO BAD IT'S MY LIST
Offense
QB - Tim Tebow, Florida
RB - Shonn Greene, Iowa
RB - Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma State
WR - Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech
WR - Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State
TE - Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma
OT - Michael Oher, Mississippi
OG - Mike Pouncey, Florida
C - Antoine Caldwell, Alabama
OG - Duke Robinson, Oklahoma
OT - Andrew Smith, Alabama
All-Purpose - Percy Harvin, Florida
Defense
DE - Jerry Hughes, Texas Christian
DT - Terrence Cody, Alabama
DT - Peria Jerry, Mississippi
DE - Everette Brown, Florida State
LB - Brandon Spikes, Florida
LB - Rey Maualuga, Southern California
LB - Mark Herzlich, Boston College
CB - D.J. Moore, Vanderbilt
CB - Janoris Jenkins, Florida (NOT a homer pick... the kid is GOOD)
S - Eric Berry, Tennessee
S - Taylor Mays, Southern California
Special Teams
K - Graham Gano, Florida State
P - Chaz Henry, Florida
KR - Jeremy Maclin, Missouri,
PR - Brandon James, Florida
Offense
QB - Tim Tebow, Florida
RB - Shonn Greene, Iowa
RB - Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma State
WR - Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech
WR - Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State
TE - Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma
OT - Michael Oher, Mississippi
OG - Mike Pouncey, Florida
C - Antoine Caldwell, Alabama
OG - Duke Robinson, Oklahoma
OT - Andrew Smith, Alabama
All-Purpose - Percy Harvin, Florida
Defense
DE - Jerry Hughes, Texas Christian
DT - Terrence Cody, Alabama
DT - Peria Jerry, Mississippi
DE - Everette Brown, Florida State
LB - Brandon Spikes, Florida
LB - Rey Maualuga, Southern California
LB - Mark Herzlich, Boston College
CB - D.J. Moore, Vanderbilt
CB - Janoris Jenkins, Florida (NOT a homer pick... the kid is GOOD)
S - Eric Berry, Tennessee
S - Taylor Mays, Southern California
Special Teams
K - Graham Gano, Florida State
P - Chaz Henry, Florida
KR - Jeremy Maclin, Missouri,
PR - Brandon James, Florida
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Random Thoughts
1. Bad Idea 'Barn
I mentioned in a post earlier in the season that the number one rule in coaching changes is to make sure you have someone lined up who you are confident is better than the guy you have. Change for the sake of change works in baseball and basketball, but it is a terrible idea in college football. For one thing, it ruins that year's recruiting class (I believe Auburn has already had five recruits decommit) and you also have to stick it out with the guy at least 3 or 4 years even if it's clear a couple games into the first season that he isn't going to work out.
That being said, who is Auburn going to get that they know will be better than Tuberville? How many coaches in the country could go undefeated at Auburn like Tuberville did in 2004? It is even more unlikely now that the new coach will have to go up against Saban for the local recruits.
2. Tebow vs. Hansbrough
Pete Fiutak wrote a funny article comparing Tim Tebow to Tyler Hansbrough in terms of motivation. Here's the link:
http://cfn.scout.com/2/819659.html
It's pretty funny and I think dead on. As a Gator fan I enjoy Tebow's motivational techniques, but I'm sure to all other fans of college football it's as annoying as Tyler Hansbrough's celebrations are to me.
3. Heisman Trophy Race
For those interested, here is a website that tracks the Heisman Trophy Race:
http://www.stiffarmtrophy.com/
It was started six years ago and has picked the winner correctly each year.
4. USC Assistants
Steve Sarkisian? Really? The same guy who has been in charge of USC's underperforming offense the past few years? Here is a tip for future ADs considering USC assistants for head coaches: THEY ALL PERFORM BADLY AFTER THEY LEAVE PETE CARROLL.
USC follows a simple winning formula: Carroll gets every single football player worth a damn on the west coast. This means that all other west coast programs get second tier talent, and thus become second tier teams. There is nothing magical in the scheming or strategy at USC when it comes to actual football. These assistants are not going to turn you into the next USC. They're probably not even going to turn you into the next Cincinnatti. Just stay away from them.
5. Get Out Mike Leach
This year was the best you're going to do Mikey. You're never going to have a better QB or WR combo than Harrell and Crabtree. You'll never get the athletes to compete on defense as long as Mack Brown is still coaching at Texas. You've got nowhere else to go but down. Clemson was the perfect job for you, but they pulled a West Virginia and hired an unproved career assistant. Washington was a good job for you, but they pulled a Mississippi and hired a USC assistant who might or might not last longer than Lane Kiffin did at Oakland.
The next job offer you get from a decent BCS school in a conference not named the Big 12 or SEC, take it and never look back.
I mentioned in a post earlier in the season that the number one rule in coaching changes is to make sure you have someone lined up who you are confident is better than the guy you have. Change for the sake of change works in baseball and basketball, but it is a terrible idea in college football. For one thing, it ruins that year's recruiting class (I believe Auburn has already had five recruits decommit) and you also have to stick it out with the guy at least 3 or 4 years even if it's clear a couple games into the first season that he isn't going to work out.
That being said, who is Auburn going to get that they know will be better than Tuberville? How many coaches in the country could go undefeated at Auburn like Tuberville did in 2004? It is even more unlikely now that the new coach will have to go up against Saban for the local recruits.
2. Tebow vs. Hansbrough
Pete Fiutak wrote a funny article comparing Tim Tebow to Tyler Hansbrough in terms of motivation. Here's the link:
http://cfn.scout.com/2/819659.html
It's pretty funny and I think dead on. As a Gator fan I enjoy Tebow's motivational techniques, but I'm sure to all other fans of college football it's as annoying as Tyler Hansbrough's celebrations are to me.
3. Heisman Trophy Race
For those interested, here is a website that tracks the Heisman Trophy Race:
http://www.stiffarmtrophy.com/
It was started six years ago and has picked the winner correctly each year.
4. USC Assistants
Steve Sarkisian? Really? The same guy who has been in charge of USC's underperforming offense the past few years? Here is a tip for future ADs considering USC assistants for head coaches: THEY ALL PERFORM BADLY AFTER THEY LEAVE PETE CARROLL.
USC follows a simple winning formula: Carroll gets every single football player worth a damn on the west coast. This means that all other west coast programs get second tier talent, and thus become second tier teams. There is nothing magical in the scheming or strategy at USC when it comes to actual football. These assistants are not going to turn you into the next USC. They're probably not even going to turn you into the next Cincinnatti. Just stay away from them.
5. Get Out Mike Leach
This year was the best you're going to do Mikey. You're never going to have a better QB or WR combo than Harrell and Crabtree. You'll never get the athletes to compete on defense as long as Mack Brown is still coaching at Texas. You've got nowhere else to go but down. Clemson was the perfect job for you, but they pulled a West Virginia and hired an unproved career assistant. Washington was a good job for you, but they pulled a Mississippi and hired a USC assistant who might or might not last longer than Lane Kiffin did at Oakland.
The next job offer you get from a decent BCS school in a conference not named the Big 12 or SEC, take it and never look back.
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