1. Texas vs. Oklahoma
The Oklahoma defense had to step up in the absence of Sam Bradford and it responded by allowing BYU and Miami to score late, leading to two losses and the end of OU's BCS championship hopes. The Sooner offensive line is still putting up as much resistance as a revolving door and top WR Ryan Broyles is probably going to be out for the game, so once again this game will rest in the hands of the Sooner D.
Texas hasn't played a defense the caliber of OU's, but they will score enough points and the Longhorn defense will put Bradford on his back and keep the Sooner offense under wraps.
Texas 24
Oklahoma 17
2. USC at Notre Dame
I've been hearing all week how ND finally believes they can beat USC... yeaaaah I don't believe them. The game will be more competitive than in year's past due to an improved Irish offensive line and USC's inexperience on offense, but USC will still win comfortably.
USC 34
Notre Dame 20
3. Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech
This is by far VT's toughest remaining game. I thought Georgia Tech might take a bit of a fall this year as the ACC gets its second look at the triple option offense, but GT has been averaging a league-best 426.7 ypg. Virginia Tech leads the conference in scoring at 34.2 ppg. Will this be a high scoring shootout like last week's GT win over Florida State?
I'm not so sure. Virginia Tech was able to hold the GT offense to 17 points last year, showing that defensive coordinator Bud Foster has a decent handle on the triple option offense. Georgia Tech's defense has been a little suspect this year, allowing 26.5 ppg. In the end, I think QB Tyrod Taylor and RB Ryan Williams do enough on the ground to grind out a win.
Virginia Tech 31
Georgia Tech 21
4. Cincinnati at South Florida (Thursday)
Cincinnati's potent offense faces off against South Florida's stingy defense in the biggest Big East game of the season to date. The winner keeps alive national title hopes while the loser relinquishes control of its own destiny for a Big East championship.
Cincinnati QB Tony Pike is 8th nationally in passing efficiency and he guides a quick strike offense that scores the third most points in the country (42 ppg) despite averaging the nation's lowest time of possession at 24 minutes a game. USF will counter Cincy's passing attack with the 9th best pass defense. Offensively for the Bulls, QB B.J. Coleman has filled in admirably for injured senior starter Matt Grothe by throwing for six scores against just two interceptions.
That Cincinnati time of possession statistic scares me a little too much, especially against a team that can stop the throwing game like USF can. If Coleman can come up big again for his team, USF will pull off the upset.
USF 31
Cincinnati 28
5. South Carolina at Alabama
Hmm, maybe if this game were at home for SC... ehhh no, probably not even then. Alabama is just too good on defense and they will be able to pound the ball on Carolina's defense. Stephen Garcia has had a nice season, but I have a feeling he will be ineffective against Nick Saban's stout defense.
'Bama 24
South Carolina 10
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Saturday, October 3, 2009
Today's Games Are Kind of Bad
I'll try and not go 1-4 this week.
1. Miami vs. Oklahoma
Jacory Harris couldn't handle the pressure in the rain last week against Virginia Tech. It's not going to get any easier for him this week as Oklahoma's defensive line features two future NFL starters in DeMarcus Granger and Gerald McCoy.
With Landry Jones getting the start on the road over injured Sam Bradford, Oklahoma will likely try to grind out points with the ground game. Virginia Tech was able to rack up 272 rushing yards on the Canes, who just a week prior were able to shutdown Georgia Tech's vaunted wishbone offense.
I expect a low scoring defensive battle, and unfortunately for the U their defense does not stack up to Oklahoma's.
Oklahoma 17
Miami 14
2. Cal vs. USC
In any other year I would have penciled in USC to win this game without thinking twice, but this USC team looks like it could be the weakest since Pete Carrol's first year. Jahvid Best will be looking to get revenge after being bottled up last year by the Trojans (30 yards on 13 carries), but you can bet Carrol will load the box and make Kevin Riley beat them.
Cal looked absolutely atrocious last week giving up 42 points and 524 yards to an Oregon offense that hadn't shown much life this year. This doesn't bode well when going up against that USC offensive line and Joe McKnight. USC always takes care of business when it comes to taking control of the Pac 10, and even though this years edition isn't as strong as years past, I think they'll still get it done.
USC 24
Cal 14
3. LSU vs. Georgia
I don't think LSU is very good, but neither is Georgia. The Georgia offense has woken up some since being beaten down by Oklahoma State on opening weekend, but the defense still gives up too many yards and doesn't create enough turnovers.
LSU's offense looks about as pedestrian as last year's, although QB Jordan Jefferson is much less turnover prone than his predecessor, pick six artist Jarrett Lee. The passing game may have improved a little but the ground game has regressed as neither Charles Scott nor Keiland Williams have been able to get on track.
This game could be a defensive slugfest or an offensive shootout, I really have no idea. I'll go with something in the middle.
Georgia 27
LSU 24
4. Auburn vs. Tennessee
Gus Malzahn's offense against Monte Kiffin's defense. It should be an epic battle and the elder Kiffin and Eric Berry will no doubt be able to slow down Auburn's second ranked offense.
Unfortunately for Tennessee, Auburn plays defense much better than Tennessee plays offense.
Auburn 28
Tennessee 14
5. Michigan vs. Michigan State
Tate Forcier has got RichRod's offense humming, but the Michigan defense needs work. Michigan State at 1-3 needs this game to turns its season around. Mark Dantonio is too good of a coach to start the season 1-4 and it's about time for Michigan to come back to Earth a little.
MSU 35
Michigan 31
1. Miami vs. Oklahoma
Jacory Harris couldn't handle the pressure in the rain last week against Virginia Tech. It's not going to get any easier for him this week as Oklahoma's defensive line features two future NFL starters in DeMarcus Granger and Gerald McCoy.
With Landry Jones getting the start on the road over injured Sam Bradford, Oklahoma will likely try to grind out points with the ground game. Virginia Tech was able to rack up 272 rushing yards on the Canes, who just a week prior were able to shutdown Georgia Tech's vaunted wishbone offense.
I expect a low scoring defensive battle, and unfortunately for the U their defense does not stack up to Oklahoma's.
Oklahoma 17
Miami 14
2. Cal vs. USC
In any other year I would have penciled in USC to win this game without thinking twice, but this USC team looks like it could be the weakest since Pete Carrol's first year. Jahvid Best will be looking to get revenge after being bottled up last year by the Trojans (30 yards on 13 carries), but you can bet Carrol will load the box and make Kevin Riley beat them.
Cal looked absolutely atrocious last week giving up 42 points and 524 yards to an Oregon offense that hadn't shown much life this year. This doesn't bode well when going up against that USC offensive line and Joe McKnight. USC always takes care of business when it comes to taking control of the Pac 10, and even though this years edition isn't as strong as years past, I think they'll still get it done.
USC 24
Cal 14
3. LSU vs. Georgia
I don't think LSU is very good, but neither is Georgia. The Georgia offense has woken up some since being beaten down by Oklahoma State on opening weekend, but the defense still gives up too many yards and doesn't create enough turnovers.
LSU's offense looks about as pedestrian as last year's, although QB Jordan Jefferson is much less turnover prone than his predecessor, pick six artist Jarrett Lee. The passing game may have improved a little but the ground game has regressed as neither Charles Scott nor Keiland Williams have been able to get on track.
This game could be a defensive slugfest or an offensive shootout, I really have no idea. I'll go with something in the middle.
Georgia 27
LSU 24
4. Auburn vs. Tennessee
Gus Malzahn's offense against Monte Kiffin's defense. It should be an epic battle and the elder Kiffin and Eric Berry will no doubt be able to slow down Auburn's second ranked offense.
Unfortunately for Tennessee, Auburn plays defense much better than Tennessee plays offense.
Auburn 28
Tennessee 14
5. Michigan vs. Michigan State
Tate Forcier has got RichRod's offense humming, but the Michigan defense needs work. Michigan State at 1-3 needs this game to turns its season around. Mark Dantonio is too good of a coach to start the season 1-4 and it's about time for Michigan to come back to Earth a little.
MSU 35
Michigan 31
Saturday, September 26, 2009
Picks
1. Miami vs. Virginia Tech
If the 'Canes are really back they win this game by two touchdowns. VT can't stop the run and they are mediocre on offense. Jacory Harris will have to defer to Javarris James and Craig Cooper.
'Canes 31
Hokies 17
2. California vs. Oregon
This could be the year Cal finally puts it all together and wins the Pac 10. Oregon is too one dimensional on offense and doesn't have enough on defense to stop Jahvid Best and Kevin Riley.
Bears 35
Ducks 24
3. Penn State vs. Iowa
The white out is on in Happy Valley as Penn State looks for revenge for their lone loss in the regular season last year. Penn State is overrated at #4 but Daryll Clark and company will still get it done over the Hawkeyes.
PSU 34
Iowa 28
4. Arkansas vs. Alabama
Arkansas is a year away from being a contender in the SEC West. Alabama is not.
'Bama 24
Arkansas 17
5. USF vs. FSU
I don't see it happening without Matt Grothe.
FSU 35
USF 21
If the 'Canes are really back they win this game by two touchdowns. VT can't stop the run and they are mediocre on offense. Jacory Harris will have to defer to Javarris James and Craig Cooper.
'Canes 31
Hokies 17
2. California vs. Oregon
This could be the year Cal finally puts it all together and wins the Pac 10. Oregon is too one dimensional on offense and doesn't have enough on defense to stop Jahvid Best and Kevin Riley.
Bears 35
Ducks 24
3. Penn State vs. Iowa
The white out is on in Happy Valley as Penn State looks for revenge for their lone loss in the regular season last year. Penn State is overrated at #4 but Daryll Clark and company will still get it done over the Hawkeyes.
PSU 34
Iowa 28
4. Arkansas vs. Alabama
Arkansas is a year away from being a contender in the SEC West. Alabama is not.
'Bama 24
Arkansas 17
5. USF vs. FSU
I don't see it happening without Matt Grothe.
FSU 35
USF 21
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Thoughts
1. U-G-L-Y
Yeah, so it wasn't what all Gator fans wanted, but a win is a win. People are going to complain about the offense and the lackluster passing game, but look at these two passing lines:
8/15 for 96 yards, 2 TDs 0 INTs
14/19 for 115 yards, 0 TDs 1 INT
The first line is Tebow's 2008 game against Tennessee, and the second line is from his 2009 game. Our 2008 offense turned out to be pretty decent, and I think the 2009 edition will get there as well. Florida only managed to score 23 points in Knoxville last season on offense (Brandon James added 7 on a punt return), so in reality they matched last year's output here as well.
A couple things to keep in mind:
Vol fans everywhere are no doubt feeling very good about their team tonight. They expected to lose by 50 but managed to escape with a 10 point defeat. They're sure Lane Kiffin has them headed in the right direction.
I was at the OB in 2003 when Ron Zook took an unranked Florida team and nearly knocked off #3 Miami. I left the stadium that night disappointed with the loss, but I felt the future was bright.
The Vols can claim a moral victory, but the fact of the matter is they are 1-2 and will probably have a losing season this year. Next year, they're going to have to start either a true freshman or someone who couldn't beat out Johnathon Crompton at QB. Eric Berry will also be gone.
If Lane Kiffin ultimately can't win more than 7 or 8 games a year, is that going to be enough for the Vols? Probably not.
3. Year of Resurgence
Miami, FSU, Michigan, Nebraska and Notre Dame all appear to be Top 25 worthy again after an off couple of seasons.
Miami, FSU, and Notre Dame are finally getting solid play from their quarterbacks and offensive lines. Tate Forcier has RichRod's offense humming in Ann Arbor and Bo Pelini has returned Nebraska's defense (aside from being burned by Coale, lol get it?) to blackshirt level.
4. Washington
The story here isn't USC, everybody knows they're going to lose to one team they shouldn't each year.
Is Washington going to be the team that finally steps up and challenges USC in the Pac 10? Steve Sarkisian is a Pete Carrol disciple and after playing LSU close and defeating USC he has Washington on a roll just one year removed from a winless season.
Yeah, so it wasn't what all Gator fans wanted, but a win is a win. People are going to complain about the offense and the lackluster passing game, but look at these two passing lines:
8/15 for 96 yards, 2 TDs 0 INTs
14/19 for 115 yards, 0 TDs 1 INT
The first line is Tebow's 2008 game against Tennessee, and the second line is from his 2009 game. Our 2008 offense turned out to be pretty decent, and I think the 2009 edition will get there as well. Florida only managed to score 23 points in Knoxville last season on offense (Brandon James added 7 on a punt return), so in reality they matched last year's output here as well.
A couple things to keep in mind:
- This was Florida's first real game.
- Tebow's 24 carries were very 2007-esque, but that 2007 team probably wins a national title if it had the 2009 defense.
- The Kiffins have tons of tape on Meyer's Gators; the Gators have very little game film on the Kiffins' Vols.
- Rainey, Moody, and Demps still all averaged above 7 yards per carry.
- Deonte Thompson sat the game out with a hamstring injury and Jeff Demps, Aaron Hernandez, and David Nelson played with the flu.
- Eric Berry is the best safety in the nation and will probably bolt for the NFL after this season.
Vol fans everywhere are no doubt feeling very good about their team tonight. They expected to lose by 50 but managed to escape with a 10 point defeat. They're sure Lane Kiffin has them headed in the right direction.
I was at the OB in 2003 when Ron Zook took an unranked Florida team and nearly knocked off #3 Miami. I left the stadium that night disappointed with the loss, but I felt the future was bright.
The Vols can claim a moral victory, but the fact of the matter is they are 1-2 and will probably have a losing season this year. Next year, they're going to have to start either a true freshman or someone who couldn't beat out Johnathon Crompton at QB. Eric Berry will also be gone.
If Lane Kiffin ultimately can't win more than 7 or 8 games a year, is that going to be enough for the Vols? Probably not.
3. Year of Resurgence
Miami, FSU, Michigan, Nebraska and Notre Dame all appear to be Top 25 worthy again after an off couple of seasons.
Miami, FSU, and Notre Dame are finally getting solid play from their quarterbacks and offensive lines. Tate Forcier has RichRod's offense humming in Ann Arbor and Bo Pelini has returned Nebraska's defense (aside from being burned by Coale, lol get it?) to blackshirt level.
4. Washington
The story here isn't USC, everybody knows they're going to lose to one team they shouldn't each year.
Is Washington going to be the team that finally steps up and challenges USC in the Pac 10? Steve Sarkisian is a Pete Carrol disciple and after playing LSU close and defeating USC he has Washington on a roll just one year removed from a winless season.
Friday, September 4, 2009
Quick Picks
1. Alabama vs. Virginia Tech
It will be business as usual when the SEC heavyweights step out of conference to take on the little guys. Alabama will control both lines of scrimmage and Nick Saban's defense will eat Tyrod Taylor up. The Alabama offense will do just enough for the tide to roll.
'Bama 24
Hokies 10
2. Georgia vs. Oklahoma State
We saw during last year's bowl season what happens when high octane Big 12 offenses face SEC defenses. AJ Green will outshine Dez Bryant and Kendall Hunter will be held in check. Mark Richt's teams are usually well prepared for openers and Georgia has been an excellent road team during Richt's tenure.
Dawgs 34
Cowboys 28
3. Oklahoma vs. BYU
Oklahoma will struggle on offense with Jermaine Gresham out of the lineup and four new offensive linemen being broken in. Still, their defense will get it done and Sam Bradford will make enough to plays to pull out a win.
OU 35
BYU 24
4. Miami vs. Florida State
Florida State makes the big jump this year from average to slightly above average, can't say the same for the 'Canes. They have a new QB and limited offensive playmakers.
FSU 27
UM 13
5. Illinois vs. Missouri
The Zooker fields what could be his best offense yet with Juice entering his senior season at QB and future top 10 draft pick Arrelious Benn at WR. Florida transfer WR Jarred Fayson will also make his first start for Illinois. Missouri loses Jeremy Maclin and Chase Daniel. Not good considering this game has been a shootout the past two years.
Illinois 38
Missouri 28
6. Florida vs. Charleston Southern
We will see John Brantley probably midway through the third quarter. Interesting things to watch for:
It will be business as usual when the SEC heavyweights step out of conference to take on the little guys. Alabama will control both lines of scrimmage and Nick Saban's defense will eat Tyrod Taylor up. The Alabama offense will do just enough for the tide to roll.
'Bama 24
Hokies 10
2. Georgia vs. Oklahoma State
We saw during last year's bowl season what happens when high octane Big 12 offenses face SEC defenses. AJ Green will outshine Dez Bryant and Kendall Hunter will be held in check. Mark Richt's teams are usually well prepared for openers and Georgia has been an excellent road team during Richt's tenure.
Dawgs 34
Cowboys 28
3. Oklahoma vs. BYU
Oklahoma will struggle on offense with Jermaine Gresham out of the lineup and four new offensive linemen being broken in. Still, their defense will get it done and Sam Bradford will make enough to plays to pull out a win.
OU 35
BYU 24
4. Miami vs. Florida State
Florida State makes the big jump this year from average to slightly above average, can't say the same for the 'Canes. They have a new QB and limited offensive playmakers.
FSU 27
UM 13
5. Illinois vs. Missouri
The Zooker fields what could be his best offense yet with Juice entering his senior season at QB and future top 10 draft pick Arrelious Benn at WR. Florida transfer WR Jarred Fayson will also make his first start for Illinois. Missouri loses Jeremy Maclin and Chase Daniel. Not good considering this game has been a shootout the past two years.
Illinois 38
Missouri 28
6. Florida vs. Charleston Southern
We will see John Brantley probably midway through the third quarter. Interesting things to watch for:
- Secondary rotation - Will Hill has proven himself to be a top 5 player on defense during spring and fall practice. Unfortunately in front of him are Ahmad Black (tied for most INTs in the country last year) and Major Wright (Preseason second team All-SEC). Hill played mostly nickel last year as a freshman, but starting CB Janoris Jenkins will be in that role this year, allowing seniors Wondy Pierre-Louis and Markihe Anderson to get on the field. So what are they gonna do with all these DBs?
- Starting offensive line - The right side of the line is solidified with the Pounceys and Marcus Gilbert, but starters on the left side are still TBD. It's come down to Matt Patchan, Carl Johnson, and James Wilson.
- DT rotation - The one thing lacking from last year's defense was consistent pressure from the defensive tackles. They were able to stop the run, but didn't do much in the passing game. Jaye Howard and Omar Hunter join the DT rotation this season and if the tackles can finally start collapsing the pocket the Gators could break the season record for INTs.
- WRs/Percy position - Who is going to get all those touches that went to Percy Harvin? Deonte Thompson should be the go-to guy this year in the passing game. Jeff Demps and Brandon James seem to be the guys who will be moving in and out of the backfield like Percy used to. If Andre Dubose ever gets over his hamstring injury he could see the field as well, and is likely the future at the Percy position.
- Can someone please for the love of god start kicking the ball out of the endzone on every kickoff? I'm looking at you Sturgis. Thanks.
Blount suspended for season?
Albert Haynesworth stomps on someone's unsuspecting face a couple years ago and gets a five game suspension, and poor Lagarrette Blount is done for the season for punching a guy who was clearly taunting him?
Maybe the suspension would have been less severe if he managed to put up more than -5 yards on the ground.
Maybe the suspension would have been less severe if he managed to put up more than -5 yards on the ground.
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