This is what happens when you hire a coach based on his performance in one game.
His clock management at the end of the 4th quarter last night reminded me of when I forget to pay attention to the clock in NCAA Football and the half or game suddenly ends on me in the middle of a scoring drive.
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Dying
I have been sick since Tuesday and it's only getting worse. Not going to be able to make as many UF/UT posts as I'd like, and it looks like I won't be able to go to Knoxville for the game. :(
Anyway, here are some interesting notes on the game:
The Gators have relied on special teams and run defense to beat the Vols in the past. You can expect more of the same this season. The Gators will have two or three costly penalties and a missed field goal that will allow the Vols to hang around until the fourth quarter, but ultimately they will prevail.
Gators 28, Vols 14.
Anyway, here are some interesting notes on the game:
- The Vol offense is averaging just 13 points a game against the Gators since Urban Meyer took over.
- The Vols have not had a run go for more than 6 yards in the last two meetings.
- Urban Meyer will be going up against his third different Vol offensive coordinator in just four years.
- Vol QB Jonathan Crompton has thrown more interceptions (3) than completions (2) when facing third and ten or longer.
- Vol RB Arian Foster is averaging 7.8 ypc this season, the Gator defense is giving up only 2.
- 1998: Gators lose in overtime on a missed field goal. Vols go on to win the national championship.
- 2000: Gators win on Jabar Gaffney's last second touchdown catch. I am willing to bet 90% of Vol Nation still does not believe that was a catch.
- 2002: Gators win big as Casey Clausen and co. fumble away the game.
- 2004: Gators lose on last second field goal. The field goal never should have happened as the refs mistakenly stopped the clock with 57 seconds left a couple plays earlier.
- 2006: Gators come from 10 behind in the second half to win 21-20 on a scoring drivelate in the fourth quarter.
The Gators have relied on special teams and run defense to beat the Vols in the past. You can expect more of the same this season. The Gators will have two or three costly penalties and a missed field goal that will allow the Vols to hang around until the fourth quarter, but ultimately they will prevail.
Gators 28, Vols 14.
Tennessee Week - Florida Offense vs. Tennessee Defense
Percy Harvin is back at full speed and Senior guard Jim Tartt will be back after missing the first two games with a shoulder injury, so there are no more excuses for the Gator offense this week.
The strength of the Vol defense is their secondary, led by safeties Dee Morley and Eric Berry. The secondary looked great in the first half against UCLA, intercepting four passes, but disappeared in the second half when they allowed UCLA's wide receivers to sit in soft spots of their zone defense. Third string QB Kevin Craft was able to get UCLA 17 second half points to send the game into overtime.
The Vols have to replace two linebackers, including Top 10 draft pick Jerod Mayo, and both defensive ends in the front 7. The Vols have done decently against the run, allowing only 2.4 yards per carry.
The Gators return just about everyone on an offense that scored 45 points (The defense and special teams scored the other 14) against the Vols last season. The only major losses are WR Andre Caldwell (Graduated/Drafted) and Cornelious Ingram (ACL). There are a number of talented wide receivers ready to take over Caldwell's spot, and Aaron Hernandez has done a great job filling in for Ingram.
As always, the key to stopping the Gator offense is to put pressure on Tebow. Tennessee defensive coordinator John Chavis is not known for his aggressiveness, and more often than not he relies soley on the front four to create pressure. This worked well for the Vols when Albert Haynesworth was anchoring the defensive line, but it has not gone so well in recent years. Chavis' zone defense schemes will be a welcome change to Tim Walton's blitz defense that Miami used to attack the Gator offensive line. I believe Tebow will have more than enough time to sit in the pocket and find his receivers.
This was supposed to be the year that the Gators finally saw some production out of the running back position. The RBs lived up to the hype against Hawaii, but Miami was able to shut down anyone running the ball not named Tim Tebow or Percy Harvin. Florida seemed to sabotage themselves by running light weight RBs Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps between the tackles. Emmanuel Moody did not get any carries; however, Meyer has said that Moody will get some touches against the Vols. I really have no idea how this will play out during the game. If I had to guess, I'd say Rainey, Demps, and Moody will combine for about 10 carries for 50-60 yards. Senior RB Kestahn Moore will also get a few carries.
The Vols return three starters from last year's secondary and 2006 starter Dee Morley. They will have their hands full against the Gators, who have one of the top wide receiving corps in the nation. Straight up, the Vol DBs might be able to hang with the Gators, however the true strength of the Gators passing attack is that they are able to rotate multiple four and five star athletes in and out of the lineup. Look for the Vol secondary to wear down as the game goes on and for Florida OC Dan Mullen to find holes in the Vol secondary just like UCLA's Norm Chow was able to do.
The strength of the Vol defense is their secondary, led by safeties Dee Morley and Eric Berry. The secondary looked great in the first half against UCLA, intercepting four passes, but disappeared in the second half when they allowed UCLA's wide receivers to sit in soft spots of their zone defense. Third string QB Kevin Craft was able to get UCLA 17 second half points to send the game into overtime.
The Vols have to replace two linebackers, including Top 10 draft pick Jerod Mayo, and both defensive ends in the front 7. The Vols have done decently against the run, allowing only 2.4 yards per carry.
The Gators return just about everyone on an offense that scored 45 points (The defense and special teams scored the other 14) against the Vols last season. The only major losses are WR Andre Caldwell (Graduated/Drafted) and Cornelious Ingram (ACL). There are a number of talented wide receivers ready to take over Caldwell's spot, and Aaron Hernandez has done a great job filling in for Ingram.
As always, the key to stopping the Gator offense is to put pressure on Tebow. Tennessee defensive coordinator John Chavis is not known for his aggressiveness, and more often than not he relies soley on the front four to create pressure. This worked well for the Vols when Albert Haynesworth was anchoring the defensive line, but it has not gone so well in recent years. Chavis' zone defense schemes will be a welcome change to Tim Walton's blitz defense that Miami used to attack the Gator offensive line. I believe Tebow will have more than enough time to sit in the pocket and find his receivers.
This was supposed to be the year that the Gators finally saw some production out of the running back position. The RBs lived up to the hype against Hawaii, but Miami was able to shut down anyone running the ball not named Tim Tebow or Percy Harvin. Florida seemed to sabotage themselves by running light weight RBs Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps between the tackles. Emmanuel Moody did not get any carries; however, Meyer has said that Moody will get some touches against the Vols. I really have no idea how this will play out during the game. If I had to guess, I'd say Rainey, Demps, and Moody will combine for about 10 carries for 50-60 yards. Senior RB Kestahn Moore will also get a few carries.
The Vols return three starters from last year's secondary and 2006 starter Dee Morley. They will have their hands full against the Gators, who have one of the top wide receiving corps in the nation. Straight up, the Vol DBs might be able to hang with the Gators, however the true strength of the Gators passing attack is that they are able to rotate multiple four and five star athletes in and out of the lineup. Look for the Vol secondary to wear down as the game goes on and for Florida OC Dan Mullen to find holes in the Vol secondary just like UCLA's Norm Chow was able to do.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Attack of the Mid-Majors
The gap between the haves and the have nots has slowly been increasing over the years in college football. One glance at this week's rankings and you'll notice that there are 3 Non-BCS teams in the coaches poll (Fresno State is ranked just outside of the Top 25 after their close loss to Wisconsin) and 4 in the AP.
The Mountain West Conference went 4-0 against the Pac 10 this weekend, and are 5-0 overall against the BCS conference this year. BYU annihilated UCLA 59-0. East Carolina has already knocked off two top 25 teams. We've seen the little guys knock off Pittsburgh and Oklahoma in BCS bowls over the past four years. Really, there are too many upsets to even mention in one space.
So that leaves the question... how are these teams pulling it off? I believe there are three reasons.
1. The talent pool is much deeper
Football is clearly the number one sport in America. Kids growing up now are more likely to drift towards football, especially in states like Florida and Texas. Basketball is really the only other sport that competes for their attention. With the 85 scholarship limit, the top programs can't sign all the talent, so it must go elsewhere.
2. Expanded coverage
A big selling point to recruits is television coverage. Kids want to play on TV. Fifteen years ago there were not nearly as many college football games on television as there are today. You can sit in front of the TV from noon until 2 AM and always have at least two games to watch. Television exposure is no longer limited to just the big time programs.
3. The spread offense
As we saw in the Appalachian State/Michigan game last year, the spread offense is a great talent equalizer. A less talented team is not going to win a game if their best guys are constantly going up against the superior team's best guys. In more conventional offenses, your best offensive skill players are going to be matched up against the defense's best players. In the spread offense you can create mismatches and have your best guy go against a 3rd or 4th string defensive back or linebacker. Eventually defenses will catch up with the spread scheme, and it may already be happening, but for now any spread offense has a chance to put up big numbers against a more talented defense as long as it as two or three playmakers.
The Mountain West Conference went 4-0 against the Pac 10 this weekend, and are 5-0 overall against the BCS conference this year. BYU annihilated UCLA 59-0. East Carolina has already knocked off two top 25 teams. We've seen the little guys knock off Pittsburgh and Oklahoma in BCS bowls over the past four years. Really, there are too many upsets to even mention in one space.
So that leaves the question... how are these teams pulling it off? I believe there are three reasons.
1. The talent pool is much deeper
Football is clearly the number one sport in America. Kids growing up now are more likely to drift towards football, especially in states like Florida and Texas. Basketball is really the only other sport that competes for their attention. With the 85 scholarship limit, the top programs can't sign all the talent, so it must go elsewhere.
2. Expanded coverage
A big selling point to recruits is television coverage. Kids want to play on TV. Fifteen years ago there were not nearly as many college football games on television as there are today. You can sit in front of the TV from noon until 2 AM and always have at least two games to watch. Television exposure is no longer limited to just the big time programs.
3. The spread offense
As we saw in the Appalachian State/Michigan game last year, the spread offense is a great talent equalizer. A less talented team is not going to win a game if their best guys are constantly going up against the superior team's best guys. In more conventional offenses, your best offensive skill players are going to be matched up against the defense's best players. In the spread offense you can create mismatches and have your best guy go against a 3rd or 4th string defensive back or linebacker. Eventually defenses will catch up with the spread scheme, and it may already be happening, but for now any spread offense has a chance to put up big numbers against a more talented defense as long as it as two or three playmakers.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Observations From This Week's Games
1. John David Booty was not a very good QB
USC "struggled" the past two years to back to back 11-2 Pac 10 and Rose Bowl champion seasons. Many blamed this on the Trojan's inability to create big plays and support the defense when it was having an off game. Looks like we found the problem. While John David Booty was good but not great (63% completion rating, 23-10 TD/INT ratio, 138 QB rating in 2007), Mark Sanchez has been fantastic with pretty much the same exact supporting cast (68% completion rating, 7-2 TD/INT ratio, 166 QB rating).
2. Ohio State still can't block or tackle anyone outside the Big 10
The #1 reason Ohio State has been embarrassed in their last three match ups against Top 2 teams is their inability to protect the quarterback. Florida, LSU, and USC all had talented defensive lines with lots of depth that manhandled OSU's offensive line. Against Florida, Ohio State was in the game until Florida's defense pressured Troy Smith into throwing an interception, stopped Ohio State on a 4th and 1, and forced Smith to fumble deep in OSU territory. These three plays lead to 17 points that put Ohio State away for good. Ohio State was actually leading LSU by 10 until the Tiger backfield started getting to Todd Boeckman and forced him to throw two INTs. Last night Boeckman was constantly under pressure. Funny enough, however, Boeckman's most costly mistake of the night (the 2nd quarter INT returned for a touchdown by Rey Maualuga) came when he had time to throw.
Even though it seems like OSU's defense has given up a ton of points in these games, a lot of the opposing team's scoring has come from taking advantage of OSU's offensive mistakes. That being said, OSU's defense does have trouble keeping up with speedy playmakers like Percy Harvin and Joe McKnight. Fortunately, or unfortunately, for OSU 99% of other defenses have the same problem.
3. Matt Stafford is going to make millions of dollars and I don't know why
The CBS broadcast of the Georgia vs. South Carolina game was the last straw for me. Listening to Verne Lundquist and Todd Blackledge gush over this kid is like listening to Special Ed teachers praise their retarded pupils for going an entire day without pissing their pants. Are you ready for the future Number One draft pick's current career college stats?
56% completion rating, 30-23 TD/INT ratio, 130 QB rating.
If you notice above, I posted John David Booty's 2007 stats and, I dunno about you, but I'd take Booty (who ended up a 5th round draft pick in a not-so-amazing draft for QBs). The breaking point for me came when Blackledge excused Stafford's mediocre stats because of all the deep shots he takes down field. Hmm... would you rather have a QB who completes 65%+ of his passes, doesn't make many mistakes, can move the chains, and will lead your team to 3-4 touchdown drives a game, OR the guy who completes 56% of his passes and maybe every once in a while will complete a 40 or 50 yard pass.
4. DOWN GOES CHARLIE!
Can't believe this isn't on YouTube yet. Maybe if Weiss dropped a few pounds he'd be agile enough to get out of the way. The best part of this story is he is refusing to rehab it. REPLACE ONE OF MY SIX MEALS A DAY WITH A WORK OUT REGIMEN?! GRRAAAARRRRR I'M ANGRY BRING ME MORE CHEESEBURGERS.
5. Auburn 3, Mississippi State 2
Auburn took the first of a 3 game series against Mississippi State 3-2 today... whoops SEC baseball doesn't start for another 5 months. Looks like Auburn is handling the transition to the spread offense about as well as Michigan is.
6. Todd Reesing is a bad ass
I hadn't really gotten a chance to watch him play until this past Friday night. He is one of the best I've ever seen at scrambling, planting his feet, and then delivering an accurate ball down field. Seems like USF should have had about 3 more sacks on the guy but he was able to elude the tacklers and then get the ball out in a hurry. Too bad he won't have an NFL career because he has the looks and size of a leprechaun.
7. Don't mean to toot my own horn, but...
Predictions:
Oregon 38, Purdue 24
Georgia 24, South Carolina 13
South Florida 31, Kansas 27
Wisconsin 20, Fresno State 17
USC 31, Ohio State 14
Results:
Oregon 32, Purdue 26
Georgia 14, South Carolina 7
South Florida 37, Kansas 34
Wisconsin 13, Fresno State 10
USC 35, Ohio State 3
USC "struggled" the past two years to back to back 11-2 Pac 10 and Rose Bowl champion seasons. Many blamed this on the Trojan's inability to create big plays and support the defense when it was having an off game. Looks like we found the problem. While John David Booty was good but not great (63% completion rating, 23-10 TD/INT ratio, 138 QB rating in 2007), Mark Sanchez has been fantastic with pretty much the same exact supporting cast (68% completion rating, 7-2 TD/INT ratio, 166 QB rating).
2. Ohio State still can't block or tackle anyone outside the Big 10
The #1 reason Ohio State has been embarrassed in their last three match ups against Top 2 teams is their inability to protect the quarterback. Florida, LSU, and USC all had talented defensive lines with lots of depth that manhandled OSU's offensive line. Against Florida, Ohio State was in the game until Florida's defense pressured Troy Smith into throwing an interception, stopped Ohio State on a 4th and 1, and forced Smith to fumble deep in OSU territory. These three plays lead to 17 points that put Ohio State away for good. Ohio State was actually leading LSU by 10 until the Tiger backfield started getting to Todd Boeckman and forced him to throw two INTs. Last night Boeckman was constantly under pressure. Funny enough, however, Boeckman's most costly mistake of the night (the 2nd quarter INT returned for a touchdown by Rey Maualuga) came when he had time to throw.
Even though it seems like OSU's defense has given up a ton of points in these games, a lot of the opposing team's scoring has come from taking advantage of OSU's offensive mistakes. That being said, OSU's defense does have trouble keeping up with speedy playmakers like Percy Harvin and Joe McKnight. Fortunately, or unfortunately, for OSU 99% of other defenses have the same problem.
3. Matt Stafford is going to make millions of dollars and I don't know why
The CBS broadcast of the Georgia vs. South Carolina game was the last straw for me. Listening to Verne Lundquist and Todd Blackledge gush over this kid is like listening to Special Ed teachers praise their retarded pupils for going an entire day without pissing their pants. Are you ready for the future Number One draft pick's current career college stats?
56% completion rating, 30-23 TD/INT ratio, 130 QB rating.
If you notice above, I posted John David Booty's 2007 stats and, I dunno about you, but I'd take Booty (who ended up a 5th round draft pick in a not-so-amazing draft for QBs). The breaking point for me came when Blackledge excused Stafford's mediocre stats because of all the deep shots he takes down field. Hmm... would you rather have a QB who completes 65%+ of his passes, doesn't make many mistakes, can move the chains, and will lead your team to 3-4 touchdown drives a game, OR the guy who completes 56% of his passes and maybe every once in a while will complete a 40 or 50 yard pass.
4. DOWN GOES CHARLIE!
Can't believe this isn't on YouTube yet. Maybe if Weiss dropped a few pounds he'd be agile enough to get out of the way. The best part of this story is he is refusing to rehab it. REPLACE ONE OF MY SIX MEALS A DAY WITH A WORK OUT REGIMEN?! GRRAAAARRRRR I'M ANGRY BRING ME MORE CHEESEBURGERS.
5. Auburn 3, Mississippi State 2
Auburn took the first of a 3 game series against Mississippi State 3-2 today... whoops SEC baseball doesn't start for another 5 months. Looks like Auburn is handling the transition to the spread offense about as well as Michigan is.
6. Todd Reesing is a bad ass
I hadn't really gotten a chance to watch him play until this past Friday night. He is one of the best I've ever seen at scrambling, planting his feet, and then delivering an accurate ball down field. Seems like USF should have had about 3 more sacks on the guy but he was able to elude the tacklers and then get the ball out in a hurry. Too bad he won't have an NFL career because he has the looks and size of a leprechaun.
7. Don't mean to toot my own horn, but...
Predictions:
Oregon 38, Purdue 24
Georgia 24, South Carolina 13
South Florida 31, Kansas 27
Wisconsin 20, Fresno State 17
USC 31, Ohio State 14
Results:
Oregon 32, Purdue 26
Georgia 14, South Carolina 7
South Florida 37, Kansas 34
Wisconsin 13, Fresno State 10
USC 35, Ohio State 3
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