As recently as the beginning of this season it looked like the SEC was set to maintain it's reputation as the best conference in college football for quite some time. The league boasted five national championship winning coaches (Steve Spurrier, Phil Fulmer, Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Les Miles), one coach who led his team to an undefeated season (Tommy Tuberville), an SEC championship caliber coach (Mark Richt), two proven winners (Houston Nutt, Bobby Petrino), and two coaches capable of making both Kentucky and Vanderbilt respectable (Rich Brooks, Bobby Johnson). The only weak link was Sylvester Croom at Mississippi State.
Fast forward to December 13th and the SEC coaching landscape looks a lot different. Here is how I think each school's stock has changed since the beginning of the season:
Alabama - Stock: Way Up
Nick Saban has turned Bama around in just his second season. Alabama's stock has risen more than any other school's this season. One of the few bright spots in the SEC this season.
Arkansas - Stock: Unchanged
The record will say that Arkansas' stock took a bit of a hit this season, but that is not the case. Arkansas had to replace two first round running back talents and much of the defense. Bobby Petrino's young team improved as the season went on and with Ryan Mallet ready to take over the QB position next season, Arkansas may be ready to make some noise in the west.
Auburn - Stock: Way Down
Gene Chizik replaced Tommy Tuberville. This is a real head scratcher. Really, Auburn's president should fire the AD and Chizik tomorrow. Just an unexcusable hire. What an absolute train wreck.
Florida - Stock: Up
Urban Meyer has proven that he will have the Gators in contention for national titles for years to come. It might be hard to believe, but this is just the beginning. This Florida team is still very young. If Brandon Spikes does not leave early, the Gators will return every starter from what is already a dominant defense.
Georgia - Stock: Down
You can blame the disappointing season on injuries, but true championship caliber teams have enough depth to overcome some personnel losses. Richt may never have a better QB/RB/WR trio than Stafford/Moreno/Green.
Kentucky - Stock: Unchanged
With a respectable 6-6 season, Rich Brooks has shown that he can keep Kentucky competitive in the SEC.
LSU - Stock: Way Down
I would have been willing to give Miles a pass on this season because of the Perilloux ordeal, but the QB position was not the only reason LSU stunk this season. The defense was routinely lit up and the Tigers managed to lose three games at home. Miles is going to have to turn it around quick or he'll be gone in two years.
Mississippi - Stock: Up
Houston Nutt took a team that did not win a single SEC team last year and led them to victories in Baton Rouge and Gainesville. Ed Orgeron recruited well and now Nutt is reaping the benefits. If Nutt can maintain this kind of talent in Oxford he might be able to win an SEC West and maybe even an SEC championship.
Mississippi State - Stock: Unchanged
This is definitely the most intriguing of all the new hires. MSU was in desperate need of some offense, so they went out and hired arguably the best offensive coordinator in the SEC. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. Did Meyer make Mullen? Was he only successful because of Tebow and Harvin? If Mullen is the real deal, will he have all the tools necessary to be successful at MSU?
South Carolina - Stock: Down
The 'Ol Ball Coach has gotten decent play out of his defense, but he has yet to get the offense up to Spurrier standards. It is looking less and less likely that Spurrier will be able to accomplish any of his goals at South Carolina.
Tennessee - Stock: Way Down
Even though Tennessee was picked to finish third in the SEC East this year, no one saw 5-7 coming. Fulmer is gone. Kiffin may or may not turn out to be a good hire, but you'd have to think that Tennessee needed to get a bigger name than this. When the fanbase is more excited about the assistants being brought in than the actual head coach... there might be a problem.
Vanderbilt - Stock: Slightly Up
Vandy finally gains bowl eligibility.
Conference Outlook:
The SEC is starting to look like the Big 12 did earlier this decade. Two dominant teams (Florida and Alabama) and then a bunch of middle of the road and lower tiered teams. LSU and Georgia are going to need to step it up over the next few seasons or Meyer and Saban are going to run away with the conference.
Saturday, December 13, 2008
All-Overrated / All-Disappointment Team
The definitive list of guys who get way too much hype for no reason at all. Not all positions will be filled.
Offense
QB - Matthew Stafford, Georgia
RB - Javon Ringer, Michigan State
RB - Beanie Wells, Ohio State
RB - James Davis, Clemson
WR - Brian Robiskie, Ohio State
WR - Aaron Kelly, Clemson
Defense
DE - George Selvie, South Florida
DT - Ricky Jean-Francois, Louisiana State
LB - James Laurinaitis, Ohio State
CB - Malcom Jenkins, Ohio State
S - Myron Rolle, Florida State
S - Rashad Johnson, Alabama
Offense
QB - Matthew Stafford, Georgia
RB - Javon Ringer, Michigan State
RB - Beanie Wells, Ohio State
RB - James Davis, Clemson
WR - Brian Robiskie, Ohio State
WR - Aaron Kelly, Clemson
Defense
DE - George Selvie, South Florida
DT - Ricky Jean-Francois, Louisiana State
LB - James Laurinaitis, Ohio State
CB - Malcom Jenkins, Ohio State
S - Myron Rolle, Florida State
S - Rashad Johnson, Alabama
My First Team All-America Selections
If this list is a little SEC heavy... TOO BAD IT'S MY LIST
Offense
QB - Tim Tebow, Florida
RB - Shonn Greene, Iowa
RB - Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma State
WR - Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech
WR - Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State
TE - Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma
OT - Michael Oher, Mississippi
OG - Mike Pouncey, Florida
C - Antoine Caldwell, Alabama
OG - Duke Robinson, Oklahoma
OT - Andrew Smith, Alabama
All-Purpose - Percy Harvin, Florida
Defense
DE - Jerry Hughes, Texas Christian
DT - Terrence Cody, Alabama
DT - Peria Jerry, Mississippi
DE - Everette Brown, Florida State
LB - Brandon Spikes, Florida
LB - Rey Maualuga, Southern California
LB - Mark Herzlich, Boston College
CB - D.J. Moore, Vanderbilt
CB - Janoris Jenkins, Florida (NOT a homer pick... the kid is GOOD)
S - Eric Berry, Tennessee
S - Taylor Mays, Southern California
Special Teams
K - Graham Gano, Florida State
P - Chaz Henry, Florida
KR - Jeremy Maclin, Missouri,
PR - Brandon James, Florida
Offense
QB - Tim Tebow, Florida
RB - Shonn Greene, Iowa
RB - Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma State
WR - Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech
WR - Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State
TE - Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma
OT - Michael Oher, Mississippi
OG - Mike Pouncey, Florida
C - Antoine Caldwell, Alabama
OG - Duke Robinson, Oklahoma
OT - Andrew Smith, Alabama
All-Purpose - Percy Harvin, Florida
Defense
DE - Jerry Hughes, Texas Christian
DT - Terrence Cody, Alabama
DT - Peria Jerry, Mississippi
DE - Everette Brown, Florida State
LB - Brandon Spikes, Florida
LB - Rey Maualuga, Southern California
LB - Mark Herzlich, Boston College
CB - D.J. Moore, Vanderbilt
CB - Janoris Jenkins, Florida (NOT a homer pick... the kid is GOOD)
S - Eric Berry, Tennessee
S - Taylor Mays, Southern California
Special Teams
K - Graham Gano, Florida State
P - Chaz Henry, Florida
KR - Jeremy Maclin, Missouri,
PR - Brandon James, Florida
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Random Thoughts
1. Bad Idea 'Barn
I mentioned in a post earlier in the season that the number one rule in coaching changes is to make sure you have someone lined up who you are confident is better than the guy you have. Change for the sake of change works in baseball and basketball, but it is a terrible idea in college football. For one thing, it ruins that year's recruiting class (I believe Auburn has already had five recruits decommit) and you also have to stick it out with the guy at least 3 or 4 years even if it's clear a couple games into the first season that he isn't going to work out.
That being said, who is Auburn going to get that they know will be better than Tuberville? How many coaches in the country could go undefeated at Auburn like Tuberville did in 2004? It is even more unlikely now that the new coach will have to go up against Saban for the local recruits.
2. Tebow vs. Hansbrough
Pete Fiutak wrote a funny article comparing Tim Tebow to Tyler Hansbrough in terms of motivation. Here's the link:
http://cfn.scout.com/2/819659.html
It's pretty funny and I think dead on. As a Gator fan I enjoy Tebow's motivational techniques, but I'm sure to all other fans of college football it's as annoying as Tyler Hansbrough's celebrations are to me.
3. Heisman Trophy Race
For those interested, here is a website that tracks the Heisman Trophy Race:
http://www.stiffarmtrophy.com/
It was started six years ago and has picked the winner correctly each year.
4. USC Assistants
Steve Sarkisian? Really? The same guy who has been in charge of USC's underperforming offense the past few years? Here is a tip for future ADs considering USC assistants for head coaches: THEY ALL PERFORM BADLY AFTER THEY LEAVE PETE CARROLL.
USC follows a simple winning formula: Carroll gets every single football player worth a damn on the west coast. This means that all other west coast programs get second tier talent, and thus become second tier teams. There is nothing magical in the scheming or strategy at USC when it comes to actual football. These assistants are not going to turn you into the next USC. They're probably not even going to turn you into the next Cincinnatti. Just stay away from them.
5. Get Out Mike Leach
This year was the best you're going to do Mikey. You're never going to have a better QB or WR combo than Harrell and Crabtree. You'll never get the athletes to compete on defense as long as Mack Brown is still coaching at Texas. You've got nowhere else to go but down. Clemson was the perfect job for you, but they pulled a West Virginia and hired an unproved career assistant. Washington was a good job for you, but they pulled a Mississippi and hired a USC assistant who might or might not last longer than Lane Kiffin did at Oakland.
The next job offer you get from a decent BCS school in a conference not named the Big 12 or SEC, take it and never look back.
I mentioned in a post earlier in the season that the number one rule in coaching changes is to make sure you have someone lined up who you are confident is better than the guy you have. Change for the sake of change works in baseball and basketball, but it is a terrible idea in college football. For one thing, it ruins that year's recruiting class (I believe Auburn has already had five recruits decommit) and you also have to stick it out with the guy at least 3 or 4 years even if it's clear a couple games into the first season that he isn't going to work out.
That being said, who is Auburn going to get that they know will be better than Tuberville? How many coaches in the country could go undefeated at Auburn like Tuberville did in 2004? It is even more unlikely now that the new coach will have to go up against Saban for the local recruits.
2. Tebow vs. Hansbrough
Pete Fiutak wrote a funny article comparing Tim Tebow to Tyler Hansbrough in terms of motivation. Here's the link:
http://cfn.scout.com/2/819659.html
It's pretty funny and I think dead on. As a Gator fan I enjoy Tebow's motivational techniques, but I'm sure to all other fans of college football it's as annoying as Tyler Hansbrough's celebrations are to me.
3. Heisman Trophy Race
For those interested, here is a website that tracks the Heisman Trophy Race:
http://www.stiffarmtrophy.com/
It was started six years ago and has picked the winner correctly each year.
4. USC Assistants
Steve Sarkisian? Really? The same guy who has been in charge of USC's underperforming offense the past few years? Here is a tip for future ADs considering USC assistants for head coaches: THEY ALL PERFORM BADLY AFTER THEY LEAVE PETE CARROLL.
USC follows a simple winning formula: Carroll gets every single football player worth a damn on the west coast. This means that all other west coast programs get second tier talent, and thus become second tier teams. There is nothing magical in the scheming or strategy at USC when it comes to actual football. These assistants are not going to turn you into the next USC. They're probably not even going to turn you into the next Cincinnatti. Just stay away from them.
5. Get Out Mike Leach
This year was the best you're going to do Mikey. You're never going to have a better QB or WR combo than Harrell and Crabtree. You'll never get the athletes to compete on defense as long as Mack Brown is still coaching at Texas. You've got nowhere else to go but down. Clemson was the perfect job for you, but they pulled a West Virginia and hired an unproved career assistant. Washington was a good job for you, but they pulled a Mississippi and hired a USC assistant who might or might not last longer than Lane Kiffin did at Oakland.
The next job offer you get from a decent BCS school in a conference not named the Big 12 or SEC, take it and never look back.
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
My Heisman Ballot
1. Colt McCoy, QB - Texas
The kid took a beating in several games this year and was able to lead his team to victory in all but one game. Out of the three players on this list he has the worst supporting cast by far. He beat Sam Bradford head to head. Statistically he's somewhere in the middle of Bradford and Tebow, but without him I don't think Texas gets more than 8 or 9 wins this year.
2. Tim Tebow, QB - Florida
I think he is the best player in college football, but he got too much help from his teammates this year. He put the team on his back and carried the Gators to victory in the SEC Championship Game, and that might be enough to win him the actual award, but in most of the other games this season he was happy to sit back and distribute the ball to the guys around him.
3. Sam Bradford, QB - Oklahoma
I'm not very impressed with this guy, but he put up great numbers and has his team in the national championship game so he has to be on the list. He has great players all around him and an offensive line that offers him plenty of protection. There are at least 20 college QBs you could replace him with and the Sooners wouldn't miss a beat.
The kid took a beating in several games this year and was able to lead his team to victory in all but one game. Out of the three players on this list he has the worst supporting cast by far. He beat Sam Bradford head to head. Statistically he's somewhere in the middle of Bradford and Tebow, but without him I don't think Texas gets more than 8 or 9 wins this year.
2. Tim Tebow, QB - Florida
I think he is the best player in college football, but he got too much help from his teammates this year. He put the team on his back and carried the Gators to victory in the SEC Championship Game, and that might be enough to win him the actual award, but in most of the other games this season he was happy to sit back and distribute the ball to the guys around him.
3. Sam Bradford, QB - Oklahoma
I'm not very impressed with this guy, but he put up great numbers and has his team in the national championship game so he has to be on the list. He has great players all around him and an offensive line that offers him plenty of protection. There are at least 20 college QBs you could replace him with and the Sooners wouldn't miss a beat.
Monday, December 8, 2008
SEC Defense vs. Big 12 Offense
There's going to be a lot of talk over the next month about the caliber of defenses and offenses in the SEC and Big 12. Was Oklahoma's offense so good because it was playing such bad Big 12 defenses? Are the SEC defenses so good because they were playing such bad SEC offenses? There's a simple answer: no one knows.
That is why this BCS title game is going to be so fun: we'll finally get to find out.
That is why this BCS title game is going to be so fun: we'll finally get to find out.
Early Thoughts on THE 'SHIP
This one's not going to be very complicated. If UF can get pressure on Bradford, the Gators will win. The amount of pressure the Gators get on him will be relative to the amount of points they win by.
If you remember the last time the Gators faced an unstoppable offense in a BCS title game (shouldn't be too hard, it was against Ohio State in 2006), they got a ton of pressure on Troy Smith and held Ohio State to under 100 yards of offense. This Gator defensive line is not as good as the 2006 line and this Oklahoma offense has more weapons than that Ohio State offense had, so it's not going to be as easy this time around.
That being said, the linebackers and secondary on this Gator defense ARE better than the 2006 edition, so the defensive line will not have to shoulder the load. Janoris Jenkins is a true shutdown cornerback (yes, even as a true freshman... the kid is that good), and he should be able to keep Juaquin Iglesias in check.
Jermaine Gresham will be a key component of Oklahoma's offense. The Gators have not faced a tight end as good as him since spring practice (Gresham is a lot like Cornelius Ingram, Florida's standout TE that was lost for the season during Fall camp). I don't even really know who Florida has that can matchup with this guy. If I had to guess, I'd say Will Hill. I think Hill will be very important for the Gators in this game. The Sooners run an up tempo offense, so the chances for substitutions will be rare. Having a defensive back that is strong against both the pass and the run will be crucial. The best way to render Gresham ineffective will be, of course, to pressure Bradford.
On offense, the Gators won't have much of a problem putting points on the board. Oklahoma trots out the 65th ranked defense in the country (which, funny enough, was good enough to be the 2nd ranked defense in the Big 12). I think the Sooner defense is a little underrated considering the Sooners run the no-huddle a lot, so teams have more opportunities to score points. The Gators will try to establish the running game to keep the Sooner's offense off the field.
It will be interesting to see if Oklahoma can stop Tebow, Rainey, Demps, Harvin, and Moody on the ground. You must remember that Oklahoma's star MLB, Ryan Reynolds, was lost for the season earlier in the year. If the Sooners do manage to stop the run and the game turns into a track meet, Florida should still be fine. Texas was able to put 45 up on Oklahoma. No offense to Colt McCoy and the Texas offense, but McCoy is basically a mini-me version of Tebow and the skill position players Tebow has to work with are far superior to that of Texas'.
The x-factors to watch for in this game:
1. Bob Stoops has lost his last four BCS games, including games the past two years against West Virginia and Boise State in which Oklahoma was a heavy favorite.
2. The Heisman winner will go a long way in deciding who wins this game. And I'm not just talking about Tim Tebow.
Tebow and Bradford are the two likely favorites to take home the Heisman this year. I'm not saying there is such thing as a Heisman curse, but the Heisman winner has not fared very well in the title game in recent years. Troy Smith, Jason White, and Chris Weinke have all won the Heisman this decade and then have gone on to lose the BCS title game. Matt Leinart was the only player able to bag a Heisman and a national championship in the same season.
If you remember the last time the Gators faced an unstoppable offense in a BCS title game (shouldn't be too hard, it was against Ohio State in 2006), they got a ton of pressure on Troy Smith and held Ohio State to under 100 yards of offense. This Gator defensive line is not as good as the 2006 line and this Oklahoma offense has more weapons than that Ohio State offense had, so it's not going to be as easy this time around.
That being said, the linebackers and secondary on this Gator defense ARE better than the 2006 edition, so the defensive line will not have to shoulder the load. Janoris Jenkins is a true shutdown cornerback (yes, even as a true freshman... the kid is that good), and he should be able to keep Juaquin Iglesias in check.
Jermaine Gresham will be a key component of Oklahoma's offense. The Gators have not faced a tight end as good as him since spring practice (Gresham is a lot like Cornelius Ingram, Florida's standout TE that was lost for the season during Fall camp). I don't even really know who Florida has that can matchup with this guy. If I had to guess, I'd say Will Hill. I think Hill will be very important for the Gators in this game. The Sooners run an up tempo offense, so the chances for substitutions will be rare. Having a defensive back that is strong against both the pass and the run will be crucial. The best way to render Gresham ineffective will be, of course, to pressure Bradford.
On offense, the Gators won't have much of a problem putting points on the board. Oklahoma trots out the 65th ranked defense in the country (which, funny enough, was good enough to be the 2nd ranked defense in the Big 12). I think the Sooner defense is a little underrated considering the Sooners run the no-huddle a lot, so teams have more opportunities to score points. The Gators will try to establish the running game to keep the Sooner's offense off the field.
It will be interesting to see if Oklahoma can stop Tebow, Rainey, Demps, Harvin, and Moody on the ground. You must remember that Oklahoma's star MLB, Ryan Reynolds, was lost for the season earlier in the year. If the Sooners do manage to stop the run and the game turns into a track meet, Florida should still be fine. Texas was able to put 45 up on Oklahoma. No offense to Colt McCoy and the Texas offense, but McCoy is basically a mini-me version of Tebow and the skill position players Tebow has to work with are far superior to that of Texas'.
The x-factors to watch for in this game:
1. Bob Stoops has lost his last four BCS games, including games the past two years against West Virginia and Boise State in which Oklahoma was a heavy favorite.
2. The Heisman winner will go a long way in deciding who wins this game. And I'm not just talking about Tim Tebow.
Tebow and Bradford are the two likely favorites to take home the Heisman this year. I'm not saying there is such thing as a Heisman curse, but the Heisman winner has not fared very well in the title game in recent years. Troy Smith, Jason White, and Chris Weinke have all won the Heisman this decade and then have gone on to lose the BCS title game. Matt Leinart was the only player able to bag a Heisman and a national championship in the same season.
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