Saturday, December 13, 2008

The Cycle Is Nearly Complete

As recently as the beginning of this season it looked like the SEC was set to maintain it's reputation as the best conference in college football for quite some time. The league boasted five national championship winning coaches (Steve Spurrier, Phil Fulmer, Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Les Miles), one coach who led his team to an undefeated season (Tommy Tuberville), an SEC championship caliber coach (Mark Richt), two proven winners (Houston Nutt, Bobby Petrino), and two coaches capable of making both Kentucky and Vanderbilt respectable (Rich Brooks, Bobby Johnson). The only weak link was Sylvester Croom at Mississippi State.

Fast forward to December 13th and the SEC coaching landscape looks a lot different. Here is how I think each school's stock has changed since the beginning of the season:

Alabama - Stock: Way Up

Nick Saban has turned Bama around in just his second season. Alabama's stock has risen more than any other school's this season. One of the few bright spots in the SEC this season.

Arkansas - Stock: Unchanged

The record will say that Arkansas' stock took a bit of a hit this season, but that is not the case. Arkansas had to replace two first round running back talents and much of the defense. Bobby Petrino's young team improved as the season went on and with Ryan Mallet ready to take over the QB position next season, Arkansas may be ready to make some noise in the west.

Auburn - Stock: Way Down

Gene Chizik replaced Tommy Tuberville. This is a real head scratcher. Really, Auburn's president should fire the AD and Chizik tomorrow. Just an unexcusable hire. What an absolute train wreck.

Florida - Stock: Up

Urban Meyer has proven that he will have the Gators in contention for national titles for years to come. It might be hard to believe, but this is just the beginning. This Florida team is still very young. If Brandon Spikes does not leave early, the Gators will return every starter from what is already a dominant defense.

Georgia - Stock: Down

You can blame the disappointing season on injuries, but true championship caliber teams have enough depth to overcome some personnel losses. Richt may never have a better QB/RB/WR trio than Stafford/Moreno/Green.

Kentucky - Stock: Unchanged

With a respectable 6-6 season, Rich Brooks has shown that he can keep Kentucky competitive in the SEC.

LSU - Stock: Way Down

I would have been willing to give Miles a pass on this season because of the Perilloux ordeal, but the QB position was not the only reason LSU stunk this season. The defense was routinely lit up and the Tigers managed to lose three games at home. Miles is going to have to turn it around quick or he'll be gone in two years.

Mississippi - Stock: Up

Houston Nutt took a team that did not win a single SEC team last year and led them to victories in Baton Rouge and Gainesville. Ed Orgeron recruited well and now Nutt is reaping the benefits. If Nutt can maintain this kind of talent in Oxford he might be able to win an SEC West and maybe even an SEC championship.

Mississippi State - Stock: Unchanged


This is definitely the most intriguing of all the new hires. MSU was in desperate need of some offense, so they went out and hired arguably the best offensive coordinator in the SEC. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. Did Meyer make Mullen? Was he only successful because of Tebow and Harvin? If Mullen is the real deal, will he have all the tools necessary to be successful at MSU?

South Carolina - Stock: Down

The 'Ol Ball Coach has gotten decent play out of his defense, but he has yet to get the offense up to Spurrier standards. It is looking less and less likely that Spurrier will be able to accomplish any of his goals at South Carolina.

Tennessee - Stock: Way Down

Even though Tennessee was picked to finish third in the SEC East this year, no one saw 5-7 coming. Fulmer is gone. Kiffin may or may not turn out to be a good hire, but you'd have to think that Tennessee needed to get a bigger name than this. When the fanbase is more excited about the assistants being brought in than the actual head coach... there might be a problem.

Vanderbilt - Stock: Slightly Up

Vandy finally gains bowl eligibility.

Conference Outlook:

The SEC is starting to look like the Big 12 did earlier this decade. Two dominant teams (Florida and Alabama) and then a bunch of middle of the road and lower tiered teams. LSU and Georgia are going to need to step it up over the next few seasons or Meyer and Saban are going to run away with the conference.

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