Monday, December 8, 2008

Early Thoughts on THE 'SHIP

This one's not going to be very complicated. If UF can get pressure on Bradford, the Gators will win. The amount of pressure the Gators get on him will be relative to the amount of points they win by.

If you remember the last time the Gators faced an unstoppable offense in a BCS title game (shouldn't be too hard, it was against Ohio State in 2006), they got a ton of pressure on Troy Smith and held Ohio State to under 100 yards of offense. This Gator defensive line is not as good as the 2006 line and this Oklahoma offense has more weapons than that Ohio State offense had, so it's not going to be as easy this time around.

That being said, the linebackers and secondary on this Gator defense ARE better than the 2006 edition, so the defensive line will not have to shoulder the load. Janoris Jenkins is a true shutdown cornerback (yes, even as a true freshman... the kid is that good), and he should be able to keep Juaquin Iglesias in check.

Jermaine Gresham will be a key component of Oklahoma's offense. The Gators have not faced a tight end as good as him since spring practice (Gresham is a lot like Cornelius Ingram, Florida's standout TE that was lost for the season during Fall camp). I don't even really know who Florida has that can matchup with this guy. If I had to guess, I'd say Will Hill. I think Hill will be very important for the Gators in this game. The Sooners run an up tempo offense, so the chances for substitutions will be rare. Having a defensive back that is strong against both the pass and the run will be crucial. The best way to render Gresham ineffective will be, of course, to pressure Bradford.

On offense, the Gators won't have much of a problem putting points on the board. Oklahoma trots out the 65th ranked defense in the country (which, funny enough, was good enough to be the 2nd ranked defense in the Big 12). I think the Sooner defense is a little underrated considering the Sooners run the no-huddle a lot, so teams have more opportunities to score points. The Gators will try to establish the running game to keep the Sooner's offense off the field.

It will be interesting to see if Oklahoma can stop Tebow, Rainey, Demps, Harvin, and Moody on the ground. You must remember that Oklahoma's star MLB, Ryan Reynolds, was lost for the season earlier in the year. If the Sooners do manage to stop the run and the game turns into a track meet, Florida should still be fine. Texas was able to put 45 up on Oklahoma. No offense to Colt McCoy and the Texas offense, but McCoy is basically a mini-me version of Tebow and the skill position players Tebow has to work with are far superior to that of Texas'.

The x-factors to watch for in this game:

1. Bob Stoops has lost his last four BCS games, including games the past two years against West Virginia and Boise State in which Oklahoma was a heavy favorite.

2. The Heisman winner will go a long way in deciding who wins this game. And I'm not just talking about Tim Tebow.

Tebow and Bradford are the two likely favorites to take home the Heisman this year. I'm not saying there is such thing as a Heisman curse, but the Heisman winner has not fared very well in the title game in recent years. Troy Smith, Jason White, and Chris Weinke have all won the Heisman this decade and then have gone on to lose the BCS title game. Matt Leinart was the only player able to bag a Heisman and a national championship in the same season.

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