Friday, October 31, 2008

Texas-Texas Tech

Is this finally the week Texas goes down? I think so. Two things:

1. Texas has played their three previous big games either at home or on a neutral field, this one is on the road.
2. Texas is starting to wear down.

Texas' one weakness is its secondary, which does not exactly bode well when going up against Texas Tech and Michael Crabtree. Talent-wise, Texas of course has the advantage, but it is just too hard to beat a top 12 team four weeks in a row.

At this point you can bet that Texas is becoming both physically and mentally drained. Many are calling this the biggest game in Texas Tech history. Not exactly a great combo if you're a Texas fan. If this game were in Austin the 'Horns would be able to feed off the crowd for energy, but that is not going to be possible on the road.

Texas Tech's defense isn't going to stop Texas, but it will slow it down just enough for Texas Tech to come out with the win.

Texas Tech 49, Texas 45.

Florida-Georgia

Not much needs to be said about this one. Georgia danced its way to a 42-30 win last season, in large part due to Knowshon Moreno running for 188 yards and 3 TDs. Everyone talks about the end zone celebration, but in reality that had little to do with the outcome of the game. After Georgia drew two unsportsmanlike penalties for the celebration, the Gators got the ball and scored within the next two plays.

Georgia was able to win the game because the Florida defense could not tackle, Tebow was playing with one arm, and the offense did not execute during crucial parts of the game. This year, Tebow is healthy and an improved Gator defense will be hyped to make up for last year's game.

These two teams are basically the same as last year. Georgia's offensive and defensive lines are not quite what they were a year ago due to some injuries, but the emergence of A.J. Green at the wideout position has led to an improved Georgia passing attack. Florida lost playmaker Bubba Caldwell, but has finally found a running game with Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey. The Florida defense returns everyone but Tony Joiner, who has been ably replaced by Ahmad Black (3 INTs, 2 of them returned for TDs).

This game falls on the shoulders of the Georgia defense. Georgia's offense needs to rely on Knowhson Moreno. Alabama was able to gash the Georgia D on the ground, keeping Moreno off the field, and by building a large first half lead they took Moreno completely out of the game and the Dawgs were never able to recover. Stafford is more than capable of making big plays, but he is too inconsistent to be solely relied on in a shootout. The Gator offense is far more explosive than Alabama's, and the Gators feature a running attack just as good as the Tide's. The Bulldogs will have to find a way to keep Florida out of the end zone early.

The Gator defense will surely load the box to stop Moreno. I wouldn't be surprised if we see true freshman Will Hill make a name for himself in this game (If he hasn't already with his seemingly endless amount of special teams tackles), as he is built with the perfect amount of size and speed to move up from his safety position and contain Moreno.

Georgia will keep this one close in the first half, but the Gators will break it open in the second half due to their depth along the offensive and defensive line. By the end of the third quarter the Dawgs will have to abandon the running game and rely on Stafford, and he won't be able to get it done.

Gators 45, Georgia 28.

Sunday, October 26, 2008

"Ok Les Miles, you win" Addendum

Earlier this year I made a post about Les Miles finally proving he belongs among the SEC's elite when it comes to coaches after LSU pulled out a last second victory over Auburn. Obviously two things have changed since that post:

1. Auburn has proven to be terrible.
2. LSU has lost two games by a combined 44 points.

No one really expected big things out of the offense after Ryan Perrilloux was booted off the team, but the defense has not been very impressive either. The personnel is still there, notably on the defensive line, but Bo Pelini is definitely missed. Miles has lost two games in each of his first three seasons, and he sits at two losses so far this season with Alabama still on the schedule.