Hey, remember when Rutgers was 1-5 and looked like one of the worst BCS teams? Well, four games later they are 5-5 and actually have a chance at WINNING the Big East.
Are you kidding me?
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Thursday, November 13, 2008
UF vs USCe
Not very many big games this weekend, so I'm just going to go over the Gator game. In Brief.
South Carolina has a very good defense. Statistically it is the best the Gators will probably face all year. There is just one problem with it: it's been built the old fashioned way. Linebackers that weigh 270 pounds? 240 pound safeties? This defense was built to stop the traditional SEC offenses, and for the most part it has, but we all know Florida doesn't run a traditional SEC offense. Steve Spurrier of all people should know what happens when you try to defend an offense built on speed with an old school defense. The CBs are a little lighter and faster, headlined by the man with the best name in the SEC, Captain Munnerlyn, but it won't be enough to make up for deficiencies in speed elsewhere.
On offense South Carolina has been its usual inconsistent, turnover prone self. Their leading rusher averages just 3.5 yards per carry and the team averages 2.9 ypc overall. The passing game is a little more potent, but not by much. The Gators have had some problems keeping mobile QBs in check (See Chris Nickson's performance in the second half last week), so Stephen Garcia's legs might be a problem, but outside of that the Gator defense should have no problems keeping the South Carlolina offense in check. Add on to this the fact that the Gators have blocked five South Carolina kicks in the past three meetings, and it is not looking to good for the 'Cocks.
Since the Ole Miss loss, Urban Meyer has commented several times on his team's increased professionalism and attention to detail. If the Gators show up prepared for this game, and I believe they will, it should be no contest.
Florida 42, South Carolina 10.
South Carolina has a very good defense. Statistically it is the best the Gators will probably face all year. There is just one problem with it: it's been built the old fashioned way. Linebackers that weigh 270 pounds? 240 pound safeties? This defense was built to stop the traditional SEC offenses, and for the most part it has, but we all know Florida doesn't run a traditional SEC offense. Steve Spurrier of all people should know what happens when you try to defend an offense built on speed with an old school defense. The CBs are a little lighter and faster, headlined by the man with the best name in the SEC, Captain Munnerlyn, but it won't be enough to make up for deficiencies in speed elsewhere.
On offense South Carolina has been its usual inconsistent, turnover prone self. Their leading rusher averages just 3.5 yards per carry and the team averages 2.9 ypc overall. The passing game is a little more potent, but not by much. The Gators have had some problems keeping mobile QBs in check (See Chris Nickson's performance in the second half last week), so Stephen Garcia's legs might be a problem, but outside of that the Gator defense should have no problems keeping the South Carlolina offense in check. Add on to this the fact that the Gators have blocked five South Carolina kicks in the past three meetings, and it is not looking to good for the 'Cocks.
Since the Ole Miss loss, Urban Meyer has commented several times on his team's increased professionalism and attention to detail. If the Gators show up prepared for this game, and I believe they will, it should be no contest.
Florida 42, South Carolina 10.
BCS + 1 = The Answer
College football doesn't need a playoff. The FBS never has had a playoff, and a college football season would feel weird with one at the end. As many people have already pointed out, Iowa's win over Penn State would have been fairly insignificant if a playoff were in place. The only consequence of the loss for PSU would have been dropping a few spots in seeding. If you've followed college football for a while, you'd know that a large part of the appeal is that every game has a huge impact on the season. One loss? You still have a chance at the title but now you have to anxiously watch the teams in front of you and hope they lose. Two losses? You're done.
An eight (or god forbid sixteen) team playoff would mean a few teams could shrug off a loss or two as being no big deal. This is not good for the sport.
A plus one system (essentially a four team playoff) would have a playoff feel AND keep the importance of the regular season in tact. The most important aspect of a plus one is shifting the debate from who deserves to be #2 to who deserves to be #4. There have been a few seasons where more than two teams looked like they should have a shot at the title, but very rarely are there more than four teams who look worthy of a national title by the end of the season.
An eight (or god forbid sixteen) team playoff would mean a few teams could shrug off a loss or two as being no big deal. This is not good for the sport.
A plus one system (essentially a four team playoff) would have a playoff feel AND keep the importance of the regular season in tact. The most important aspect of a plus one is shifting the debate from who deserves to be #2 to who deserves to be #4. There have been a few seasons where more than two teams looked like they should have a shot at the title, but very rarely are there more than four teams who look worthy of a national title by the end of the season.
Saturday, November 8, 2008
HOW ARE COLLEGE COACHES SO BAD WITH TIMEOUTS
When going for the game winning/tying field goal, how hard is it to call timeout with 4 seconds or less left? Why would you call a timeout and leave enough time for the opposing team to have a chance with a kickoff return? I mean, how simple is this? And why can't any coach do it? We saw Mike Leach do it last week for Texas Tech, and now Kirk Ferentz did it this week.
Also, nice work on wasting two timeouts on one challenge, Les Miles. You deserved to lose that game, and you did.
Also, nice work on wasting two timeouts on one challenge, Les Miles. You deserved to lose that game, and you did.
The Football Gods Have Spoken
Anyone who follows college football knows Penn State would have gotten beat down by either the SEC or Big 12 champ in the national title game, and the Big 10 would have ruined a third straight title game. Now that PSU is out of the picture, we can have the real championship game between the Big 12 and the SEC (or maybe USC if the Big 12 or SEC Champ finishes with 2 losses).
This match up is much more exciting because the two leagues have been battling all season for title of best conference. The SEC started the season #1, but with Tennessee and Auburn suffering through unforeseen down seasons, the Big 12 has risen up thanks to the amount of great quarterbacks in the league.
Adding to the potential story lines of an SEC vs. Big 12 match up is the probability that the QB of the Big 12 champ will be the Heisman winner. Imagine Florida vs. Texas with Heisman winners Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy dueling it out.
This match up is much more exciting because the two leagues have been battling all season for title of best conference. The SEC started the season #1, but with Tennessee and Auburn suffering through unforeseen down seasons, the Big 12 has risen up thanks to the amount of great quarterbacks in the league.
Adding to the potential story lines of an SEC vs. Big 12 match up is the probability that the QB of the Big 12 champ will be the Heisman winner. Imagine Florida vs. Texas with Heisman winners Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy dueling it out.
Monday, November 3, 2008
AD Simulator 2008
With Fulmer being forced out, I thought it'd be a good time to go over the guidelines for firing your old coach and hiring a new one for a major college football program.
The most important part of this process is to know who your replacement is before you get rid of the old guy. If there is someone out there that you know will come in and do a better job than the person you currently have, then make the change. If not, you have to stick it out with your current coach until you can find his replacement.
There is nothing dumber in college football than change for the sake of change. The college game is not like the NFL where there are two or three different offensive and defensive philosophies, and all the players are suited to perform in these same philosophies. There are many different kinds of offenses and defenses in the college game, and you're going to need to recruit players specifically for your system. If you hire a new coach it is going to take him 3-4 years to get his players to run his system. If the guy you hire doesn't work out, then the next guy is going to need the same 3-4 year period. One bad hire can set you back almost a decade. So as I said, do not make the change unless you're certain you can get someone better.
Now, how do you find the right guy? All great college football coaches possess at least two of these three qualities:
1. Ability to assemble a high quality coaching staff
Coordinators and position coaches are more important in college than they are in the NFL. They handle the majority of recruiting and they are vital to the development of players. Bobby Bowden went from genius to senile old man when Mark Richt left, Phil Fulmer can't run an offense without David Cutcliffe, Tommy Tuberville is on the hot seat after making one bad coordinator hire, Randy Shannon found himself a defensive coordinator and the 'Canes went from 5-7 to bowl eligible with 3 games remaining.
2. Recruiting skills/Roster Management
Can you recruit great players? I am not just talking about the 5 star can't-miss prospects. You also must be able to identify the hidden gems like Michael Crabtree (2 stars), Brandon James (2 stars), and Chase Daniel (3 stars).
Another important part of this is recruiting for depth. You can go out and have the #1 recruiting class in the nation, but if that class has 5 RBs, 6 WRs, 8 LBs, and 3 Safeties, you did a bad job. You must recruit contributors at each position every year. You're not always going to be able to get All-American calibur athletes, but you need to get guys who can provide solid play until the All-Americans arrive. Depth is one of, if not the most important, aspects of any championship calibur team. It helps with injuries, it makes the starters better (they will have to constantly be improving if they don't want to get passed up on the depth chart), and it can be used to wear down opponents who lack depth. I would take a team with no-name players and quality depth at each position over a team with three or four stars and no depth.
3. Able to put together an excellent game plan and make effective game day adjustments
Pretty self-explanatory. Once you have the players, you have to know how to position them to be successful.
So now that we know what makes a good coach, let's see which possible replacements meet the criteria and which don't.
Tier 1 (Potentially meets all 3):
1. Chris Petersen
2. Mike Leach
Tier 2 (Could possibly meet 2 of 3):
3. Tim Brewster
4. Brian Kelly
5. Lane Kiffin
6. Kyle Wittingham
Tier 3 (Probable college head coach busts):
7. Will Muschamp
8. Jon Gruden
9. Bill Cowher
To be honest, I haven't done much research on all the potential coaching prospects, but these are the names that have been floating around. If at all possible, I think the major college programs should target head coaches at smaller programs that have had continued success. Coordinators are risky because you don't know how well they will transition to the head coach position. Ex-NFL head coaches are extremely risky because you can't succeed running a college program like an NFL franchise. What about Pete Carrol you ask? Carrol ran his NFL teams like a college program, which is why he wasn't that great as an NFL coach.
The most important part of this process is to know who your replacement is before you get rid of the old guy. If there is someone out there that you know will come in and do a better job than the person you currently have, then make the change. If not, you have to stick it out with your current coach until you can find his replacement.
There is nothing dumber in college football than change for the sake of change. The college game is not like the NFL where there are two or three different offensive and defensive philosophies, and all the players are suited to perform in these same philosophies. There are many different kinds of offenses and defenses in the college game, and you're going to need to recruit players specifically for your system. If you hire a new coach it is going to take him 3-4 years to get his players to run his system. If the guy you hire doesn't work out, then the next guy is going to need the same 3-4 year period. One bad hire can set you back almost a decade. So as I said, do not make the change unless you're certain you can get someone better.
Now, how do you find the right guy? All great college football coaches possess at least two of these three qualities:
1. Ability to assemble a high quality coaching staff
Coordinators and position coaches are more important in college than they are in the NFL. They handle the majority of recruiting and they are vital to the development of players. Bobby Bowden went from genius to senile old man when Mark Richt left, Phil Fulmer can't run an offense without David Cutcliffe, Tommy Tuberville is on the hot seat after making one bad coordinator hire, Randy Shannon found himself a defensive coordinator and the 'Canes went from 5-7 to bowl eligible with 3 games remaining.
2. Recruiting skills/Roster Management
Can you recruit great players? I am not just talking about the 5 star can't-miss prospects. You also must be able to identify the hidden gems like Michael Crabtree (2 stars), Brandon James (2 stars), and Chase Daniel (3 stars).
Another important part of this is recruiting for depth. You can go out and have the #1 recruiting class in the nation, but if that class has 5 RBs, 6 WRs, 8 LBs, and 3 Safeties, you did a bad job. You must recruit contributors at each position every year. You're not always going to be able to get All-American calibur athletes, but you need to get guys who can provide solid play until the All-Americans arrive. Depth is one of, if not the most important, aspects of any championship calibur team. It helps with injuries, it makes the starters better (they will have to constantly be improving if they don't want to get passed up on the depth chart), and it can be used to wear down opponents who lack depth. I would take a team with no-name players and quality depth at each position over a team with three or four stars and no depth.
3. Able to put together an excellent game plan and make effective game day adjustments
Pretty self-explanatory. Once you have the players, you have to know how to position them to be successful.
So now that we know what makes a good coach, let's see which possible replacements meet the criteria and which don't.
Tier 1 (Potentially meets all 3):
1. Chris Petersen
2. Mike Leach
Tier 2 (Could possibly meet 2 of 3):
3. Tim Brewster
4. Brian Kelly
5. Lane Kiffin
6. Kyle Wittingham
Tier 3 (Probable college head coach busts):
7. Will Muschamp
8. Jon Gruden
9. Bill Cowher
To be honest, I haven't done much research on all the potential coaching prospects, but these are the names that have been floating around. If at all possible, I think the major college programs should target head coaches at smaller programs that have had continued success. Coordinators are risky because you don't know how well they will transition to the head coach position. Ex-NFL head coaches are extremely risky because you can't succeed running a college program like an NFL franchise. What about Pete Carrol you ask? Carrol ran his NFL teams like a college program, which is why he wasn't that great as an NFL coach.
Random Thoughts From The Weekend
1. Big 12 South vs. The SEC
The top of the polls has been dominated by the SEC and the Big 12 South this season. Any championship game that doesn't feature a team from the Big 12's South Division and the SEC Champ will be a disappointment. Who cares what the final records end up being, the BCS is supposed to put the two best teams in the championship game, and the two best teams this year will be the Big 12 and SEC Champions. These blowout championship games featuring one overmatched team against a proven contender are just not good for college football. Which leads me to my next thought...
2. Penn State and the Big 10
At the very least, the Big 10 needs to add a championship game. It is just not fair that these Big 10 teams can get away with playing one or two big games a year and then coast in to the BCS Championship Game. If Penn State wins out, which it should, it is going to end up getting pasted by whichever SEC or Big 12 team they face (The only team they could hang with for a little while is Alabama, but Alabama would still beat them convincingly in the end.)
The Big 10 won't add a championship game until they feel they absolutely need to. For one, they'd need to add one more team to even out the divisions. Outside of Notre Dame, I don't think the Big 10 is too excited about any possible additions to its conference. Also, do you put Ohio State and Michigan in the same division? Separate divisions? If they play in separate divisions, their annual rivalry game would sometimes be rendered meaningless since it would take place the week before the championship game, and you'd have to figure a good portion of the time OSU will be facing Michigan in that championship game (assuming RichRod can turn things around). If you put them in the same division, than the other Big 10 division could end up like the Big 12 North and lack star power.
3. If I Had A Heisman Vote...
It would look like this:
1. Graham Harrel
2. Colt McCoy
3. Tim Tebow
4. Sam Bradford
5. Michael Crabtree
The fifth spot could also go to Dez Bryant, who has better stats than Crabtree, but Crabtree produced arguably the signature play of this college football season, so he gets the nod for now. The two face off against each other this week in Lubbock.
4. Bye, Phil
I didn't really think Fulmer would be fired this season, but after UT's performance against South Carolina it looks like it is inevitable that the Dean of SEC Coaches will be getting the pink slip. The Vols don't just lose, they don't even compete. I didn't think UT had another 2005 in them, but they are well on there way to another losing season. Even worse for Vol fans, it doesn't look like next year will be any better, regardless of who the coach is.
The top of the polls has been dominated by the SEC and the Big 12 South this season. Any championship game that doesn't feature a team from the Big 12's South Division and the SEC Champ will be a disappointment. Who cares what the final records end up being, the BCS is supposed to put the two best teams in the championship game, and the two best teams this year will be the Big 12 and SEC Champions. These blowout championship games featuring one overmatched team against a proven contender are just not good for college football. Which leads me to my next thought...
2. Penn State and the Big 10
At the very least, the Big 10 needs to add a championship game. It is just not fair that these Big 10 teams can get away with playing one or two big games a year and then coast in to the BCS Championship Game. If Penn State wins out, which it should, it is going to end up getting pasted by whichever SEC or Big 12 team they face (The only team they could hang with for a little while is Alabama, but Alabama would still beat them convincingly in the end.)
The Big 10 won't add a championship game until they feel they absolutely need to. For one, they'd need to add one more team to even out the divisions. Outside of Notre Dame, I don't think the Big 10 is too excited about any possible additions to its conference. Also, do you put Ohio State and Michigan in the same division? Separate divisions? If they play in separate divisions, their annual rivalry game would sometimes be rendered meaningless since it would take place the week before the championship game, and you'd have to figure a good portion of the time OSU will be facing Michigan in that championship game (assuming RichRod can turn things around). If you put them in the same division, than the other Big 10 division could end up like the Big 12 North and lack star power.
3. If I Had A Heisman Vote...
It would look like this:
1. Graham Harrel
2. Colt McCoy
3. Tim Tebow
4. Sam Bradford
5. Michael Crabtree
The fifth spot could also go to Dez Bryant, who has better stats than Crabtree, but Crabtree produced arguably the signature play of this college football season, so he gets the nod for now. The two face off against each other this week in Lubbock.
4. Bye, Phil
I didn't really think Fulmer would be fired this season, but after UT's performance against South Carolina it looks like it is inevitable that the Dean of SEC Coaches will be getting the pink slip. The Vols don't just lose, they don't even compete. I didn't think UT had another 2005 in them, but they are well on there way to another losing season. Even worse for Vol fans, it doesn't look like next year will be any better, regardless of who the coach is.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)