Last week I listed three reasons why I thought the mid-majors and other programs who have never had much success have all of a sudden become relevant in college football. Well add another reason to the list: the new clock rules.
As we saw last night, the most talented team on the field now has a smaller chance of winning due to the shortening of the game. Most teams get about 8 or 9 possessions a game now. Last night, USC had three 3 and outs and two turnovers. You just cannot afford to do that now no matter who the opponent is. If you don't score on a drive, you at least have to gain a field position advantage or else you may waste an entire half's worth of possessions. This is what happened to USC last night.
With the old rules, you could afford to turn the ball over a couple of times because you could make up for it later on. This is no longer the case. Each turnover reduces a team's chance to win drastically. Special teams are also at an all time high value wise. Superior teams could get away with shaky special teams in the past, but this is no longer the case. Even though special teams have always been important, you barely ever hear an analyst discuss a team's special teams when talking about their chance at winning championships. I believe that will change as long as these new clock rules are in place; however, I don't think the new clock rules will last long.
Friday, September 26, 2008
University of Southern Chokers
For the third year in a row USC drops a game they had no business losing. Jacquizz Rodgers, a 5'6" 180 lbs. running back, ran through the USC defense all night. It was truly remarkable to see him squirm his way out of tackles. He didn't exactly juke defenders, and he certainly didn't run over them, but somehow he managed to avoid getting tackled and consistently picked up 4-5 yards. Despite having arm strength that wouldn't even be considered good for a high school QB, Oregon State signal caller Lyle Moevao threw two touch down passes against USC's highly regarded secondary.
On offense, Mark Sanchez had good numbers, but he was consistently pressured. USC put together two great drives to start the third quarter, but could do little else the rest of the night. Joe McKnight had a terrible night, fumbling the ball once and managing just 10 yards on 7 carries. Stafon Johnson and C.J. Gable had some success running the ball, but by the time USC got them on the field they were too far behind to run the ball.
In the end, I believe the new clock rules ultimately did USC in. Under the new rules, teams are losing one to two possessions a game. USC managed to run just 51 plays, and had the ball for only 22 minutes and 11 seconds. By the time USC found its rhythm on offense the game was all but over.
On offense, Mark Sanchez had good numbers, but he was consistently pressured. USC put together two great drives to start the third quarter, but could do little else the rest of the night. Joe McKnight had a terrible night, fumbling the ball once and managing just 10 yards on 7 carries. Stafon Johnson and C.J. Gable had some success running the ball, but by the time USC got them on the field they were too far behind to run the ball.
In the end, I believe the new clock rules ultimately did USC in. Under the new rules, teams are losing one to two possessions a game. USC managed to run just 51 plays, and had the ball for only 22 minutes and 11 seconds. By the time USC found its rhythm on offense the game was all but over.
Monday, September 22, 2008
Greg Schianewb
This is why you bolt your inferior program the second you are offered a top tier job. Schiano could be roaming the side lines at Miami or Michigan right now, but instead he's still chopping away at Rutgers. After two years of moderate success, the Scarlet Knights are off to a more Rutgers-like 0-3 start. Losing Ray Rice hurts, but most of Rutgers' problems have come on the defensive side of the ball.
Many people think Schiano is holding out for the Penn State job, but will Penn State want Schiano three years down the road if Rutgers goes 12-24 over that time period? No one cares what you did five years ago. It's starting to get to the point where no one even cares what you did LAST year. Schiano can probably get Rutgers back into the Top 25 in the next couple of years, mostly because the Big East is pretty weak. If he does, is he going to decline more job offers from major programs?
Many people think Schiano is holding out for the Penn State job, but will Penn State want Schiano three years down the road if Rutgers goes 12-24 over that time period? No one cares what you did five years ago. It's starting to get to the point where no one even cares what you did LAST year. Schiano can probably get Rutgers back into the Top 25 in the next couple of years, mostly because the Big East is pretty weak. If he does, is he going to decline more job offers from major programs?
Weekend Observations
1. UF vs UT
It was business as usual for the Gators. The defense and special teams dominated the game and the offense took advantage of the opportunities that resulted from the other two units' efforts. Urban Meyer's plan to win this season has been simple, but effective: win the field position battle by playing great defense and not turning the ball over.
The offensive statistics have not been spectacular, but that is because they haven't really had to be. The Gators simply have not had to go very far to score. For those thinking the offense has been struggling, just consider that of Florida's 31 offensive possessions (I did not count possessions that ended with the Gators running the ball to end the half/game) this season, they have only had to punt 13 times. Since the Gators have not turned the ball over yet this season, this means they are scoring on 58% of their drives. Sounds pretty good to me.
The Gators are not going to match last years offensive numbers for two reasons: the new clock rules and the Gator defense. The new clock rules have taken away one to two possessions per game. The Gator defense has eliminated the need to take extra risks on offense. Last season, the coaches felt the need to score on every possession. This season they are much more comfortable punting the ball and letting the defense get the ball back for the offense. Hard to argue with this since the defense has forced 9 turnovers in three games and has only given up a total of 19 points.
As for the Vols performance, you really don't have to look any further than the recruiting rankings the past four years. The Gators' average recruiting class rank is 5.25 (including three Top 3 finishes the past three years) according to Rivals. The Vols come in at 16.25. Phil Fulmer has never been a great X's and O's coach, and when Tennessee was having success in the 90s and the earlier part of the decade, it was mostly due to their talent advantage. With that advantage gone the Vols are just a middle of the road SEC East team.
2. Ok Les Miles, you win.
I never thought that LSU would still be an elite team four years into the Les Miles era. Once Saban's players were gone, I thought LSU would regress back to the Gerry DiNardo years. That has not been the case. While it would be nearly impossible to duplicate Saban's recruiting efforts at LSU, Mile has come pretty close. LSU had the most talented team in the SEC from 2005-2007. I would say Florida and Georgia have caught up to them this season, but they are certainly still right up there.
Miles' game day coaching has been as impressive as his recruiting. You keep waiting for his gambles to cost him a big game, but it seems they work out every time. Emotion plays a huge role in college football, and Miles always seems to know what he needs to do to give his team the emotional edge.
I also expected the defense take a step back this season due to Bo Pelini leaving for the Nebraska head coaching job, but LSU looks as formidable as ever on that side of the ball. If Miles can go 2-1 against Florida, Georgia, and Alabama he will find himself in another SEC Championship Game playing for a spot in Miami.
3. Maybe Georgia should have traveled out west to play someone from the MWC.
Georgia manhandled an over matched Arizona State team. Georgia controlled the line of scrimmage the entire night, allowing Arizona State to rush for just 4 yards on 19 carries while the Dawgs were able to pound out 176 yards on the ground. This has become a fairly predictable stat line when top teams from the SEC take on out of conference opponents. It looks like Georgia will only be tested from inside the SEC this year.
There is a reason why the SEC had five of the top ten teams in last week's AP Poll. Every other conference except for the Big 12 is awful this season. Really, how do you even try to decipher the BCS conference rankings for the 3-6 slots? Here is a breakdown of each BCS conference and the amount of teams they have ranked:
Big East: 1 (#14 USF)
Pac 10: 2 (#1 USC, #22 Oregon)
ACC: 2 (#15 Wake Forest, #19 Clemson)
Big 10: 4 (#8 Wisconsin, #12 Penn St, #13 Ohio St, #21 Illinois)
Big 12: 5 (#2 Oklahoma, #5 Missouri, #7 Texas, #9 Texas Tech, #18 Kansas)
SEC: 6 (#3 Georgia, #4 Florida, #6 LSU, #10 Alabama, #16 Auburn, #25 Vanderbilt)
Because the Big East, Pac 10, and ACC didn't feel like fielding many Top 25 teams this season, mighty VANDERBILT, who has forever been the worst program in the SEC has cracked the Top 25. Pac 10 semi-contenders Arizona State, Oregon, and Cal have turned out to be duds. Hard to blame Oregon for falling short because of their QB situation, but their defense has also been woeful. In the Big 10, Ohio State and Illinois lost big to the only decent teams they've played this season, so they are only ranked because of their preseason rankings. Same goes for Clemson in the ACC and Kansas in the Big 12. Penn State has not yet played anyone decent.
4.The Jimbo Fisher Era has begun!
Some excitement was building in Tallahassee after the Seminoles demolished two FCS schools to open the season. Jimbo's offense was starting to take shape. 'Noles starting QB Christian Ponder displayed old school FSU cockiness by guaranteeing a victory. The Doak was rocking as Chief Osceola ran out to mid field to plant the flaming spear into the ground. The Seminole team gathered together and jumped up and down at midfield with anticipation.
And then Ponder was picked off on his first passing attempt and the 'Noles reverted back to the same team we have seen for the past seven years. You can't really even say they reverted because what they showed on offense was even worse than what we have become accustomed to seeing out of FSU. Seven turnovers and a 12-3 loss to Wake Forest. There were many negatives for Florida State in this game: the offensive line is worse than it's ever been, still no quarterback or running game, the best offensive play they have is still the jump ball. The worst part, though, had to be the realization that the Seminoles could not defeat a Wake Forest team that did not bring their A, B, or C game. Wake Forest did everything they could to keep them in the game and they still could not muster more than three points.
It was business as usual for the Gators. The defense and special teams dominated the game and the offense took advantage of the opportunities that resulted from the other two units' efforts. Urban Meyer's plan to win this season has been simple, but effective: win the field position battle by playing great defense and not turning the ball over.
The offensive statistics have not been spectacular, but that is because they haven't really had to be. The Gators simply have not had to go very far to score. For those thinking the offense has been struggling, just consider that of Florida's 31 offensive possessions (I did not count possessions that ended with the Gators running the ball to end the half/game) this season, they have only had to punt 13 times. Since the Gators have not turned the ball over yet this season, this means they are scoring on 58% of their drives. Sounds pretty good to me.
The Gators are not going to match last years offensive numbers for two reasons: the new clock rules and the Gator defense. The new clock rules have taken away one to two possessions per game. The Gator defense has eliminated the need to take extra risks on offense. Last season, the coaches felt the need to score on every possession. This season they are much more comfortable punting the ball and letting the defense get the ball back for the offense. Hard to argue with this since the defense has forced 9 turnovers in three games and has only given up a total of 19 points.
As for the Vols performance, you really don't have to look any further than the recruiting rankings the past four years. The Gators' average recruiting class rank is 5.25 (including three Top 3 finishes the past three years) according to Rivals. The Vols come in at 16.25. Phil Fulmer has never been a great X's and O's coach, and when Tennessee was having success in the 90s and the earlier part of the decade, it was mostly due to their talent advantage. With that advantage gone the Vols are just a middle of the road SEC East team.
2. Ok Les Miles, you win.
I never thought that LSU would still be an elite team four years into the Les Miles era. Once Saban's players were gone, I thought LSU would regress back to the Gerry DiNardo years. That has not been the case. While it would be nearly impossible to duplicate Saban's recruiting efforts at LSU, Mile has come pretty close. LSU had the most talented team in the SEC from 2005-2007. I would say Florida and Georgia have caught up to them this season, but they are certainly still right up there.
Miles' game day coaching has been as impressive as his recruiting. You keep waiting for his gambles to cost him a big game, but it seems they work out every time. Emotion plays a huge role in college football, and Miles always seems to know what he needs to do to give his team the emotional edge.
I also expected the defense take a step back this season due to Bo Pelini leaving for the Nebraska head coaching job, but LSU looks as formidable as ever on that side of the ball. If Miles can go 2-1 against Florida, Georgia, and Alabama he will find himself in another SEC Championship Game playing for a spot in Miami.
3. Maybe Georgia should have traveled out west to play someone from the MWC.
Georgia manhandled an over matched Arizona State team. Georgia controlled the line of scrimmage the entire night, allowing Arizona State to rush for just 4 yards on 19 carries while the Dawgs were able to pound out 176 yards on the ground. This has become a fairly predictable stat line when top teams from the SEC take on out of conference opponents. It looks like Georgia will only be tested from inside the SEC this year.
There is a reason why the SEC had five of the top ten teams in last week's AP Poll. Every other conference except for the Big 12 is awful this season. Really, how do you even try to decipher the BCS conference rankings for the 3-6 slots? Here is a breakdown of each BCS conference and the amount of teams they have ranked:
Big East: 1 (#14 USF)
Pac 10: 2 (#1 USC, #22 Oregon)
ACC: 2 (#15 Wake Forest, #19 Clemson)
Big 10: 4 (#8 Wisconsin, #12 Penn St, #13 Ohio St, #21 Illinois)
Big 12: 5 (#2 Oklahoma, #5 Missouri, #7 Texas, #9 Texas Tech, #18 Kansas)
SEC: 6 (#3 Georgia, #4 Florida, #6 LSU, #10 Alabama, #16 Auburn, #25 Vanderbilt)
Because the Big East, Pac 10, and ACC didn't feel like fielding many Top 25 teams this season, mighty VANDERBILT, who has forever been the worst program in the SEC has cracked the Top 25. Pac 10 semi-contenders Arizona State, Oregon, and Cal have turned out to be duds. Hard to blame Oregon for falling short because of their QB situation, but their defense has also been woeful. In the Big 10, Ohio State and Illinois lost big to the only decent teams they've played this season, so they are only ranked because of their preseason rankings. Same goes for Clemson in the ACC and Kansas in the Big 12. Penn State has not yet played anyone decent.
4.The Jimbo Fisher Era has begun!
Some excitement was building in Tallahassee after the Seminoles demolished two FCS schools to open the season. Jimbo's offense was starting to take shape. 'Noles starting QB Christian Ponder displayed old school FSU cockiness by guaranteeing a victory. The Doak was rocking as Chief Osceola ran out to mid field to plant the flaming spear into the ground. The Seminole team gathered together and jumped up and down at midfield with anticipation.
And then Ponder was picked off on his first passing attempt and the 'Noles reverted back to the same team we have seen for the past seven years. You can't really even say they reverted because what they showed on offense was even worse than what we have become accustomed to seeing out of FSU. Seven turnovers and a 12-3 loss to Wake Forest. There were many negatives for Florida State in this game: the offensive line is worse than it's ever been, still no quarterback or running game, the best offensive play they have is still the jump ball. The worst part, though, had to be the realization that the Seminoles could not defeat a Wake Forest team that did not bring their A, B, or C game. Wake Forest did everything they could to keep them in the game and they still could not muster more than three points.
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Bill Stewart? C'mooooooooooooooooon
This is what happens when you hire a coach based on his performance in one game.
His clock management at the end of the 4th quarter last night reminded me of when I forget to pay attention to the clock in NCAA Football and the half or game suddenly ends on me in the middle of a scoring drive.
His clock management at the end of the 4th quarter last night reminded me of when I forget to pay attention to the clock in NCAA Football and the half or game suddenly ends on me in the middle of a scoring drive.
Dying
I have been sick since Tuesday and it's only getting worse. Not going to be able to make as many UF/UT posts as I'd like, and it looks like I won't be able to go to Knoxville for the game. :(
Anyway, here are some interesting notes on the game:
The Gators have relied on special teams and run defense to beat the Vols in the past. You can expect more of the same this season. The Gators will have two or three costly penalties and a missed field goal that will allow the Vols to hang around until the fourth quarter, but ultimately they will prevail.
Gators 28, Vols 14.
Anyway, here are some interesting notes on the game:
- The Vol offense is averaging just 13 points a game against the Gators since Urban Meyer took over.
- The Vols have not had a run go for more than 6 yards in the last two meetings.
- Urban Meyer will be going up against his third different Vol offensive coordinator in just four years.
- Vol QB Jonathan Crompton has thrown more interceptions (3) than completions (2) when facing third and ten or longer.
- Vol RB Arian Foster is averaging 7.8 ypc this season, the Gator defense is giving up only 2.
- 1998: Gators lose in overtime on a missed field goal. Vols go on to win the national championship.
- 2000: Gators win on Jabar Gaffney's last second touchdown catch. I am willing to bet 90% of Vol Nation still does not believe that was a catch.
- 2002: Gators win big as Casey Clausen and co. fumble away the game.
- 2004: Gators lose on last second field goal. The field goal never should have happened as the refs mistakenly stopped the clock with 57 seconds left a couple plays earlier.
- 2006: Gators come from 10 behind in the second half to win 21-20 on a scoring drivelate in the fourth quarter.
The Gators have relied on special teams and run defense to beat the Vols in the past. You can expect more of the same this season. The Gators will have two or three costly penalties and a missed field goal that will allow the Vols to hang around until the fourth quarter, but ultimately they will prevail.
Gators 28, Vols 14.
Tennessee Week - Florida Offense vs. Tennessee Defense
Percy Harvin is back at full speed and Senior guard Jim Tartt will be back after missing the first two games with a shoulder injury, so there are no more excuses for the Gator offense this week.
The strength of the Vol defense is their secondary, led by safeties Dee Morley and Eric Berry. The secondary looked great in the first half against UCLA, intercepting four passes, but disappeared in the second half when they allowed UCLA's wide receivers to sit in soft spots of their zone defense. Third string QB Kevin Craft was able to get UCLA 17 second half points to send the game into overtime.
The Vols have to replace two linebackers, including Top 10 draft pick Jerod Mayo, and both defensive ends in the front 7. The Vols have done decently against the run, allowing only 2.4 yards per carry.
The Gators return just about everyone on an offense that scored 45 points (The defense and special teams scored the other 14) against the Vols last season. The only major losses are WR Andre Caldwell (Graduated/Drafted) and Cornelious Ingram (ACL). There are a number of talented wide receivers ready to take over Caldwell's spot, and Aaron Hernandez has done a great job filling in for Ingram.
As always, the key to stopping the Gator offense is to put pressure on Tebow. Tennessee defensive coordinator John Chavis is not known for his aggressiveness, and more often than not he relies soley on the front four to create pressure. This worked well for the Vols when Albert Haynesworth was anchoring the defensive line, but it has not gone so well in recent years. Chavis' zone defense schemes will be a welcome change to Tim Walton's blitz defense that Miami used to attack the Gator offensive line. I believe Tebow will have more than enough time to sit in the pocket and find his receivers.
This was supposed to be the year that the Gators finally saw some production out of the running back position. The RBs lived up to the hype against Hawaii, but Miami was able to shut down anyone running the ball not named Tim Tebow or Percy Harvin. Florida seemed to sabotage themselves by running light weight RBs Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps between the tackles. Emmanuel Moody did not get any carries; however, Meyer has said that Moody will get some touches against the Vols. I really have no idea how this will play out during the game. If I had to guess, I'd say Rainey, Demps, and Moody will combine for about 10 carries for 50-60 yards. Senior RB Kestahn Moore will also get a few carries.
The Vols return three starters from last year's secondary and 2006 starter Dee Morley. They will have their hands full against the Gators, who have one of the top wide receiving corps in the nation. Straight up, the Vol DBs might be able to hang with the Gators, however the true strength of the Gators passing attack is that they are able to rotate multiple four and five star athletes in and out of the lineup. Look for the Vol secondary to wear down as the game goes on and for Florida OC Dan Mullen to find holes in the Vol secondary just like UCLA's Norm Chow was able to do.
The strength of the Vol defense is their secondary, led by safeties Dee Morley and Eric Berry. The secondary looked great in the first half against UCLA, intercepting four passes, but disappeared in the second half when they allowed UCLA's wide receivers to sit in soft spots of their zone defense. Third string QB Kevin Craft was able to get UCLA 17 second half points to send the game into overtime.
The Vols have to replace two linebackers, including Top 10 draft pick Jerod Mayo, and both defensive ends in the front 7. The Vols have done decently against the run, allowing only 2.4 yards per carry.
The Gators return just about everyone on an offense that scored 45 points (The defense and special teams scored the other 14) against the Vols last season. The only major losses are WR Andre Caldwell (Graduated/Drafted) and Cornelious Ingram (ACL). There are a number of talented wide receivers ready to take over Caldwell's spot, and Aaron Hernandez has done a great job filling in for Ingram.
As always, the key to stopping the Gator offense is to put pressure on Tebow. Tennessee defensive coordinator John Chavis is not known for his aggressiveness, and more often than not he relies soley on the front four to create pressure. This worked well for the Vols when Albert Haynesworth was anchoring the defensive line, but it has not gone so well in recent years. Chavis' zone defense schemes will be a welcome change to Tim Walton's blitz defense that Miami used to attack the Gator offensive line. I believe Tebow will have more than enough time to sit in the pocket and find his receivers.
This was supposed to be the year that the Gators finally saw some production out of the running back position. The RBs lived up to the hype against Hawaii, but Miami was able to shut down anyone running the ball not named Tim Tebow or Percy Harvin. Florida seemed to sabotage themselves by running light weight RBs Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps between the tackles. Emmanuel Moody did not get any carries; however, Meyer has said that Moody will get some touches against the Vols. I really have no idea how this will play out during the game. If I had to guess, I'd say Rainey, Demps, and Moody will combine for about 10 carries for 50-60 yards. Senior RB Kestahn Moore will also get a few carries.
The Vols return three starters from last year's secondary and 2006 starter Dee Morley. They will have their hands full against the Gators, who have one of the top wide receiving corps in the nation. Straight up, the Vol DBs might be able to hang with the Gators, however the true strength of the Gators passing attack is that they are able to rotate multiple four and five star athletes in and out of the lineup. Look for the Vol secondary to wear down as the game goes on and for Florida OC Dan Mullen to find holes in the Vol secondary just like UCLA's Norm Chow was able to do.
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