OH THE IRONY

The day after I outline what not to do in this season of shortened games, the Gators go right down the list and do all the things you need to do to lose to an inferior team. Not much analysis is needed here. The Gators lost the turnover battle 3-1 (they also had a punt that went for no yards, so essentially they turned the ball over four times), they performed poorly in kickoff coverage, and of course the nail in the coffin was the blocked extra point (even though an Ole Miss defender illegally hurdled a Florida offensive lineman to get the block, so there should have been a penalty against Ole Miss on the play).

There is plenty of blame to go around for the loss. Percy Harvin and Tim Tebow uncharacteristically put the ball on the ground. The defense allowed two big plays to go for touchdowns, including the game winning 85 yard TD pass on a 3rd and long. The offensive line once again was outplayed. Tebow missed a few passes that would have gone for touchdowns or big gains.

Here is how I see it for Gator fans:

Good News:

The loss was to an SEC West team, so your chances of winning an SEC and national title are the same today as they were before the loss. Win the rest of your games, and you're in. The pollsters are not going to be kind to the Gators this week; they will most likely end up somewhere in the 11-14 range. However, BYU is the only team with an above average chance of going undefeated, but there is no way they are getting into the title game unless all other BCS contenders have two or more losses. Oklahoma looks great, but Oklahoma always looks great in September. They will likely drop a game or two along the way, and probably in the same way the Gators lost this game. Penn State has a shot, but they still have to play OSU and Wisconsin. The Gators will get opportunities to defeat fellow SEC contenders LSU, Georgia, and Alabama (if 'Bama makes it to the SECCG). If there are a handful of one loss teams vying for a spot in the title game, and there will be, the SEC champ will get that spot.

Bad News:

I don't know if it's the Heisman, the offensive line, the loss of Bubba Caldwell and CI, or the playcalling, but Tebow has not been as dominant as he was last season. As stated above, there were multiple reasons why the Gators lost this game, but Tebow left several plays out on the field that could have won the Gators the game. Twice that I saw he had open receivers he should have identified immediately based on what the defense was showing, but instead he went elsewhere with the ball. On first and second down during the final set of downs on the last drive he had open receivers streaking towards the end zone but overthrew them both times. Tebow bashers love to argue that Tebow cannot read defenses. For most of his career they have been incorrect, as Tebow has always done an excellent job at making the right decisions. However, this was not the case in this game as Tebow definitely left some plays out on the field. Florida is not going to win the rest of its games if Tebow cannot elevate his play.

Jim Tartt seems to make or break this offensive line. The fifth year senior guard missed the Hawaii, Miami, and Ole Miss games. It did not matter against an outmatched Hawaii squad, but Miami and Ole Miss were able to disrupt the offense by going at Tartt's replacement, Marcus Gilbert. Tartt's only start this season, against Tennessee, is the only game that Florida has won the line of scrimmage on the offensive side of the ball. The Gators either need to get Tartt healthy, coach Gilbert up, or insert James Wilson. On those 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 plays where they run Tebow, they almost always go left towards Phil Trautwein and Jim Tartt. With Tartt out of the game they decided to go right on that pivotal 4th and 1 play against Ole Miss, and were subsequently stuffed.

The Gator game plan does not seem to fit this offensive line. When the Gators go with five wide outs, they run these long developing plays that ultimately become disrupted by pressure on Tebow. They need to run shorter routes, get the ball out quicker, and let their athletes make plays. The Gators can line up Percy Harvin, Louis Murphy, Aaron Hernandez, Riley Cooper, Deonte Thompson, Chris Rainey, Jeff Demps, Carl Moore and Brandon James in WR positions. You put any of these five guys on the field at one time, there is going to be a major mismatch somewhere that can be exploited IMMEDIATELY. They do not need to run some 15-20 yard route. Get the ball in their hands ASAP. Hit them on a WR screen, a 5 yard slant or out pattern, and let them make the play.



Outlook:

Obviously, the Gators cannot afford to lose focus again like they did this week. It was possible to overcome three turnovers in the past. If you turn over the ball three times this year, you are going to lose unless your opponent is being as generous as you are. The loss to Auburn in 2006 was the catalyst for that year's championship run. The team did not get dejected, they got pissed off. They turned up the intensity and came out focused for every game after that. These 2008 Gators need to do the same. Assuming the Gators don't come out and beat themselves like they did in this game, they should only face significant resistance against LSU and Georgia. Georgia certainly looked beatable last night. Alabama was able to put Georgia in a position where Matt Stafford had to win them the game, and of course he was not able to come through. The Gators will follow the same game plan.

LSU is a whole different animal, however. This is the game that will make or break the Gators season. This is not really a surprise; the winner of this game the past two years has gone on to win the national title. LSU is similar to Ole Miss. While Ole Miss gets great offensive and defensive line play, LSU's lines are dominant. Both Ole Miss and LSU will try to control the game with a power running game and an eventual big play through the air off of play action. If the Gators can get passed LSU, they have an excellent shot at being in Atlanta for the SECCG.