Thursday, October 15, 2009

Picks, Thursday Edition

1. Texas vs. Oklahoma

The Oklahoma defense had to step up in the absence of Sam Bradford and it responded by allowing BYU and Miami to score late, leading to two losses and the end of OU's BCS championship hopes. The Sooner offensive line is still putting up as much resistance as a revolving door and top WR Ryan Broyles is probably going to be out for the game, so once again this game will rest in the hands of the Sooner D.

Texas hasn't played a defense the caliber of OU's, but they will score enough points and the Longhorn defense will put Bradford on his back and keep the Sooner offense under wraps.

Texas 24
Oklahoma 17

2. USC at Notre Dame

I've been hearing all week how ND finally believes they can beat USC... yeaaaah I don't believe them. The game will be more competitive than in year's past due to an improved Irish offensive line and USC's inexperience on offense, but USC will still win comfortably.

USC 34
Notre Dame 20

3. Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech

This is by far VT's toughest remaining game. I thought Georgia Tech might take a bit of a fall this year as the ACC gets its second look at the triple option offense, but GT has been averaging a league-best 426.7 ypg. Virginia Tech leads the conference in scoring at 34.2 ppg. Will this be a high scoring shootout like last week's GT win over Florida State?

I'm not so sure. Virginia Tech was able to hold the GT offense to 17 points last year, showing that defensive coordinator Bud Foster has a decent handle on the triple option offense. Georgia Tech's defense has been a little suspect this year, allowing 26.5 ppg. In the end, I think QB Tyrod Taylor and RB Ryan Williams do enough on the ground to grind out a win.

Virginia Tech 31
Georgia Tech 21

4. Cincinnati at South Florida (Thursday)

Cincinnati's potent offense faces off against South Florida's stingy defense in the biggest Big East game of the season to date. The winner keeps alive national title hopes while the loser relinquishes control of its own destiny for a Big East championship.

Cincinnati QB Tony Pike is 8th nationally in passing efficiency and he guides a quick strike offense that scores the third most points in the country (42 ppg) despite averaging the nation's lowest time of possession at 24 minutes a game. USF will counter Cincy's passing attack with the 9th best pass defense. Offensively for the Bulls, QB B.J. Coleman has filled in admirably for injured senior starter Matt Grothe by throwing for six scores against just two interceptions.

That Cincinnati time of possession statistic scares me a little too much, especially against a team that can stop the throwing game like USF can. If Coleman can come up big again for his team, USF will pull off the upset.

USF 31
Cincinnati 28

5. South Carolina at Alabama

Hmm, maybe if this game were at home for SC... ehhh no, probably not even then. Alabama is just too good on defense and they will be able to pound the ball on Carolina's defense. Stephen Garcia has had a nice season, but I have a feeling he will be ineffective against Nick Saban's stout defense.

'Bama 24
South Carolina 10

Saturday, October 3, 2009

Today's Games Are Kind of Bad

I'll try and not go 1-4 this week.

1. Miami vs. Oklahoma

Jacory Harris couldn't handle the pressure in the rain last week against Virginia Tech. It's not going to get any easier for him this week as Oklahoma's defensive line features two future NFL starters in DeMarcus Granger and Gerald McCoy.

With Landry Jones getting the start on the road over injured Sam Bradford, Oklahoma will likely try to grind out points with the ground game. Virginia Tech was able to rack up 272 rushing yards on the Canes, who just a week prior were able to shutdown Georgia Tech's vaunted wishbone offense.

I expect a low scoring defensive battle, and unfortunately for the U their defense does not stack up to Oklahoma's.

Oklahoma 17
Miami 14

2. Cal vs. USC

In any other year I would have penciled in USC to win this game without thinking twice, but this USC team looks like it could be the weakest since Pete Carrol's first year. Jahvid Best will be looking to get revenge after being bottled up last year by the Trojans (30 yards on 13 carries), but you can bet Carrol will load the box and make Kevin Riley beat them.

Cal looked absolutely atrocious last week giving up 42 points and 524 yards to an Oregon offense that hadn't shown much life this year. This doesn't bode well when going up against that USC offensive line and Joe McKnight. USC always takes care of business when it comes to taking control of the Pac 10, and even though this years edition isn't as strong as years past, I think they'll still get it done.

USC 24
Cal 14

3. LSU vs. Georgia

I don't think LSU is very good, but neither is Georgia. The Georgia offense has woken up some since being beaten down by Oklahoma State on opening weekend, but the defense still gives up too many yards and doesn't create enough turnovers.

LSU's offense looks about as pedestrian as last year's, although QB Jordan Jefferson is much less turnover prone than his predecessor, pick six artist Jarrett Lee. The passing game may have improved a little but the ground game has regressed as neither Charles Scott nor Keiland Williams have been able to get on track.

This game could be a defensive slugfest or an offensive shootout, I really have no idea. I'll go with something in the middle.

Georgia 27
LSU 24

4. Auburn vs. Tennessee

Gus Malzahn's offense against Monte Kiffin's defense. It should be an epic battle and the elder Kiffin and Eric Berry will no doubt be able to slow down Auburn's second ranked offense.

Unfortunately for Tennessee, Auburn plays defense much better than Tennessee plays offense.

Auburn 28
Tennessee 14

5. Michigan vs. Michigan State

Tate Forcier has got RichRod's offense humming, but the Michigan defense needs work. Michigan State at 1-3 needs this game to turns its season around. Mark Dantonio is too good of a coach to start the season 1-4 and it's about time for Michigan to come back to Earth a little.

MSU 35
Michigan 31

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Congrats FSU, fourth best team in Florida.

Going to lose to UM, USF, and UF this year. Ouch.

Picks

1. Miami vs. Virginia Tech

If the 'Canes are really back they win this game by two touchdowns. VT can't stop the run and they are mediocre on offense. Jacory Harris will have to defer to Javarris James and Craig Cooper.

'Canes 31
Hokies 17

2. California vs. Oregon

This could be the year Cal finally puts it all together and wins the Pac 10. Oregon is too one dimensional on offense and doesn't have enough on defense to stop Jahvid Best and Kevin Riley.

Bears 35
Ducks 24

3. Penn State vs. Iowa

The white out is on in Happy Valley as Penn State looks for revenge for their lone loss in the regular season last year. Penn State is overrated at #4 but Daryll Clark and company will still get it done over the Hawkeyes.

PSU 34
Iowa 28

4. Arkansas vs. Alabama

Arkansas is a year away from being a contender in the SEC West. Alabama is not.

'Bama 24
Arkansas 17

5. USF vs. FSU

I don't see it happening without Matt Grothe.

FSU 35
USF 21



Saturday, September 19, 2009

Thoughts

1. U-G-L-Y

Yeah, so it wasn't what all Gator fans wanted, but a win is a win. People are going to complain about the offense and the lackluster passing game, but look at these two passing lines:

8/15 for 96 yards, 2 TDs 0 INTs
14/19 for 115 yards, 0 TDs 1 INT

The first line is Tebow's 2008 game against Tennessee, and the second line is from his 2009 game. Our 2008 offense turned out to be pretty decent, and I think the 2009 edition will get there as well. Florida only managed to score 23 points in Knoxville last season on offense (Brandon James added 7 on a punt return), so in reality they matched last year's output here as well.

A couple things to keep in mind:
  • This was Florida's first real game.
  • Tebow's 24 carries were very 2007-esque, but that 2007 team probably wins a national title if it had the 2009 defense.
  • The Kiffins have tons of tape on Meyer's Gators; the Gators have very little game film on the Kiffins' Vols.
  • Rainey, Moody, and Demps still all averaged above 7 yards per carry.
  • Deonte Thompson sat the game out with a hamstring injury and Jeff Demps, Aaron Hernandez, and David Nelson played with the flu.
  • Eric Berry is the best safety in the nation and will probably bolt for the NFL after this season.
2. Lane Kiffin = Ron Zook?

Vol fans everywhere are no doubt feeling very good about their team tonight. They expected to lose by 50 but managed to escape with a 10 point defeat. They're sure Lane Kiffin has them headed in the right direction.

I was at the OB in 2003 when Ron Zook took an unranked Florida team and nearly knocked off #3 Miami. I left the stadium that night disappointed with the loss, but I felt the future was bright.

The Vols can claim a moral victory, but the fact of the matter is they are 1-2 and will probably have a losing season this year. Next year, they're going to have to start either a true freshman or someone who couldn't beat out Johnathon Crompton at QB. Eric Berry will also be gone.

If Lane Kiffin ultimately can't win more than 7 or 8 games a year, is that going to be enough for the Vols? Probably not.

3. Year of Resurgence

Miami, FSU, Michigan, Nebraska and Notre Dame all appear to be Top 25 worthy again after an off couple of seasons.

Miami, FSU, and Notre Dame are finally getting solid play from their quarterbacks and offensive lines. Tate Forcier has RichRod's offense humming in Ann Arbor and Bo Pelini has returned Nebraska's defense (aside from being burned by Coale, lol get it?) to blackshirt level.

4. Washington

The story here isn't USC, everybody knows they're going to lose to one team they shouldn't each year.

Is Washington going to be the team that finally steps up and challenges USC in the Pac 10? Steve Sarkisian is a Pete Carrol disciple and after playing LSU close and defeating USC he has Washington on a roll just one year removed from a winless season.


Friday, September 4, 2009

Quick Picks

1. Alabama vs. Virginia Tech

It will be business as usual when the SEC heavyweights step out of conference to take on the little guys. Alabama will control both lines of scrimmage and Nick Saban's defense will eat Tyrod Taylor up. The Alabama offense will do just enough for the tide to roll.

'Bama 24
Hokies 10

2. Georgia vs. Oklahoma State

We saw during last year's bowl season what happens when high octane Big 12 offenses face SEC defenses. AJ Green will outshine Dez Bryant and Kendall Hunter will be held in check. Mark Richt's teams are usually well prepared for openers and Georgia has been an excellent road team during Richt's tenure.

Dawgs 34
Cowboys 28

3. Oklahoma vs. BYU

Oklahoma will struggle on offense with Jermaine Gresham out of the lineup and four new offensive linemen being broken in. Still, their defense will get it done and Sam Bradford will make enough to plays to pull out a win.

OU 35
BYU 24

4. Miami vs. Florida State

Florida State makes the big jump this year from average to slightly above average, can't say the same for the 'Canes. They have a new QB and limited offensive playmakers.

FSU 27
UM 13

5. Illinois vs. Missouri

The Zooker fields what could be his best offense yet with Juice entering his senior season at QB and future top 10 draft pick Arrelious Benn at WR. Florida transfer WR Jarred Fayson will also make his first start for Illinois. Missouri loses Jeremy Maclin and Chase Daniel. Not good considering this game has been a shootout the past two years.

Illinois 38
Missouri 28

6. Florida vs. Charleston Southern

We will see John Brantley probably midway through the third quarter. Interesting things to watch for:
  1. Secondary rotation - Will Hill has proven himself to be a top 5 player on defense during spring and fall practice. Unfortunately in front of him are Ahmad Black (tied for most INTs in the country last year) and Major Wright (Preseason second team All-SEC). Hill played mostly nickel last year as a freshman, but starting CB Janoris Jenkins will be in that role this year, allowing seniors Wondy Pierre-Louis and Markihe Anderson to get on the field. So what are they gonna do with all these DBs?
  2. Starting offensive line - The right side of the line is solidified with the Pounceys and Marcus Gilbert, but starters on the left side are still TBD. It's come down to Matt Patchan, Carl Johnson, and James Wilson.
  3. DT rotation - The one thing lacking from last year's defense was consistent pressure from the defensive tackles. They were able to stop the run, but didn't do much in the passing game. Jaye Howard and Omar Hunter join the DT rotation this season and if the tackles can finally start collapsing the pocket the Gators could break the season record for INTs.
  4. WRs/Percy position - Who is going to get all those touches that went to Percy Harvin? Deonte Thompson should be the go-to guy this year in the passing game. Jeff Demps and Brandon James seem to be the guys who will be moving in and out of the backfield like Percy used to. If Andre Dubose ever gets over his hamstring injury he could see the field as well, and is likely the future at the Percy position.
  5. Can someone please for the love of god start kicking the ball out of the endzone on every kickoff? I'm looking at you Sturgis. Thanks.

Blount suspended for season?

Albert Haynesworth stomps on someone's unsuspecting face a couple years ago and gets a five game suspension, and poor Lagarrette Blount is done for the season for punching a guy who was clearly taunting him?

Maybe the suspension would have been less severe if he managed to put up more than -5 yards on the ground.

Friday, August 21, 2009

SEC West Division Predictions

1. LSU - Poor QB play cost LSU at least two games last year. Jordan Jefferson appears ready to run the LSU offense now and new defensive coordinator John Chavis will return the defense to Bo Pelini levels.
2. Alabama - OT Andre Smith is a much bigger loss than QB John Parker Wilson. If Alabama can still run the ball Julio Jones will make plays down field no matter who is throwing them the ball. The defense will be as good, if not better, than last years'.
3. Mississippi - Ole Miss isn't going to sneak up on anyone this year like they did in 2008. Like Alabama, they lose a monster OT in Michael Oher. The defensive line will still be one of the best in the league, despite losing first round rick Peria Jerry.
4. Arkansas - QB Ryan Mallet and RB Michael Turner are ready to unleash Bobby Petrino's offense on the rest of the SEC. If this team were in the Big East or ACC they'd be competing for a conference championship.
5. Auburn - It's Auburn so the defense will still be solid, led by future pro DL Antonio Coleman. Offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn will take an offense that averaged 11 points per game in SEC play last year and make it respectable.
6. Mississippi State - It is just not going to happen this year for ex-Gator offensive coordinator and first year head coach Dan Mullen. The defensive back seven should be good but the line got no push last year and the talent on offense will need to be upgraded in a big way.

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

SEC East Division Predictions

1. Florida - Pretty much just slot them in for Atlanta in early December.
2. Georgia - Losing Stafford won't hurt Georgia that much. They will probably be going with RB by committee to replace Moreno, but I wouldn't expect the rushing numbers to dip too much. DTs Geno Atkins and Jeff Owens, who returns after missing last season with a knee injury, are two of the best in the league.
3. Vanderbilt - This should be Bobby Johnson's best team as Vandy returns just about everyone from last year's bowl team except for CB D.J. Moore, who is now with the Chicago Bears.
4. Tennessee - Defense hasn't been an issue for Tennessee the past few years. Anemic offenses led to losing seasons in 2005 and 2008. Safety Eric Berry will lead a once again stout Vol defense, and I think the offense will improve just enough to secure a winning season and bowl berth.
5. South Carolina - Like Tennessee, defense hasn't been the problem (except when playing Florida) but the offense has been close to non-existent and certainly not up to Spurrier's standards. Stephen Garcia will have the QB job all to himself, but he is going to need a running game that averaged just 2.9 yards a carry last season to improve for the South Carolina offense to get any better.
6. Kentucky - The definition of average. Quarterback play put Kentucky in the division cellar last year and it is not going to get much better this season.

Monday, August 10, 2009

Late

So there were supposed to be four practices open to the public, two for vets and two for freshman, but they cut it down to three and just had the freshman play with the upperclassmen on Friday. Here's some tidbits:

  • Moody, Black, and Moore didn't practice due to injury but they are expected back soon. I get the feeling that we'll only be seeing Moody in the fourth quarter of blowouts again this season.
  • Dustin Doe is still suspended from the team for driving with a suspended license. Doe was a starter in 2007 and the first part of 2008 but lost his job when he had to sit out a few weeks due to injury. The depth at linebacker and in the secondary is just ridiculous. Speaking of secondary depth...
  • Will Hill stepped in for Black and was impressive. Meyer called Hill "one of the top 5 guys" right now. Black was tied for the NCAA lead in interceptions last year so I doubt Hill is going to replace him, but I am sure Meyer and Strong will find a way to get him on the field. Hill was the nickel cornerback and lead the team in special teams tackles last year with 22.
  • Tim Tebow still has the big windup delivery when throwing the football, but supposedly it has been sped up to allow him to get rid of the ball faster. Every year I read about changes in Tebow's mechanics and every year they still look the same to me... I guess we'll see.
  • Deonte Thompson is emerging as the the go-to receiver.
  • Riley Cooper was practicing (sorry Phil).
  • Andre Debose has mostly looked lost.
  • I couldn't find anything on who is playing with the first team offensive line. I am not overly concerned about replacing last year's tackles; offensive line coach Steve Addazio has plenty of talent to plug in there.
  • Starting CB Joe Haden has lined up some in the Wildcat formation. Haden was a quarterback in high school and was originally slotted to play wide receiver at Florida before moving to the defensive side of the ball and becoming the first freshman corner in Gator history to start on opening day. I doubt the Wildcat formation makes an appearance during the regular season.
That's it for now. I am going to release some SEC predictions sometime today or tomorrow and I'll have my preseason Top 25 out by next week.

Thursday, August 6, 2009

WOOT WOOT

Camp started this morning for the veterans. Freshman are up later this evening. Time to start updating again.

Friday, June 12, 2009

LONG TIME!

It's the offseason so I haven't been updating. Here's a couple stories and my thoughts on them...

1. Alabama forced to forfeit 21 wins.

Not really that big of a deal because this has no effect on the future of the program. Only important thing I can see, especially from a Gator standpoint, is that Urban Meyer's worst loss as Florida's coach is no longer on the books.

2. Lane Kiffin commits about a zillion more recruiting infractions.

Not even going to provide a link for this one because there's too many to link. This guy is so in over his head it's ridiculous. He may be able to put together a good team but I think the only way he is going to be able to do it is by putting UT on probation.

3. Starting Florida CB Janoris Jenkins arrested.

Another Gator arrested for being drunk in a club. He is Florida's best CB (Sorry Joe it's true) and because the charges are all misdemeanors he will miss one maybe two games and be ready by the time Tennessee comes to town.

4. Athlon anoints Gators as preseason #1 team.

No surprise there. What DID surprise me:
  • Oklahoma gets #2 over Texas
  • Florida State at #15 (too high)
  • North Carolina at #19 (too low)
  • Penn Sate at #7 (not really a surprise but I'd be shocked if they finish the season in the Top 10)
5. Channing Crowder is still awesome.

Looks like Rex Ryan has some scouting to do!


That's it for now. If anything earth shattering happens (please oh please NCAA nail Pete Carrol and the USC Trojans) I'll be back to comment on it. If not it'll probably be a while until my next update.

Only about 2 more months till fall camp begins!

Thursday, February 5, 2009

Oh Lane...

Waah, Urban cheated!

Whoops, sorry I'm just an idiot.

So, Lane Kiffin publicly calls Urban Meyer out for a recruiting violation that doesn't even really exist.

Not to mention Kiffin himself has been busted for FIVE recruiting violations in the past month alone.

You're getting in over your head little man.

Thursday, January 22, 2009

I calls it as I sees it

Well, well, well... to all the 'Canes fans (ok the one 'Cane fan) who were complaining about my post yesterday, this is from a UM beat writer who has been covering the 'Canes for 14 years:

"…..Young and his wife Lawana are the first people I’ve ever heard of who willingly left south Florida for Oklahoma in the dead of winter.

…..Maybe I’m just being Negative Ned, but it sure seems like the Hurricanes’ football team is in crisis. Not much good has happened since about mid-November.

…..Judging by the Internet message boards, I think we can safely say the honeymoon between UM fans and Randy Shannon is officially over."

You can read the rest of the article here.

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Post-Draft Deadline Top 10

Just a quicky because my list changed a little bit. I'll give a more detailed one after spring ball is over. The team's ranking in my previous poll is listed in parenthesis.

1. Florida (1)
2. Oklahoma (3)
3. Texas (2)
4. USC (4)
5. Oklahoma State (7)
6. Virginia Tech (6)
7. Mississippi (10)
8. LSU (9)
9. Ohio State (5)
10. Alabama (NR)

The Raft Is Sinking

So far the off season has looked like this for Miami:

1. Fired offensive coordinator
2. Starting QB decides to transfer (followed by public feud between QB and Shannon)
3. Bryce Brown, Miami's top rated recruit, decides to look elsewhere
4. Defensive coordinator bolts for... Oklahoma State?

The first three are old news by now, but the fourth is a recent development. Bill Young took a defense that gave up 26 PPG and 346 YPG in 2007 and brought those numbers down to 24.2 and 318.

The 'Canes are now in a tough spot with no offensive or defensive coordinator in place and signing day only 2 weeks away. Given the amount of coaches that have turned down coordinator offers from Shannon in the past, there is a decent chance this next batch of Miami recruits will be signing a letter of intent not knowing who is going to be leading their unit.

Monday, January 19, 2009

It Is Done


Lane Kiffin and Tennessee will be able to recruit 'em, now the question is will they be able to coach 'em up? Sorry for all the Tennessee/SEC posts, but one person out of the three or four who reads this blog is a big UT fan (hi Josh).

Friday, January 16, 2009

Pete Carrol Is Still Lame

For all the hype USC has gotten this decade they have exactly one BCS championship and a bunch of blowout victories over hapless Big 10 teams in what is essentially a home game in the Rose Bowl. They have more "hey, we might not have won the national championship, but we were the best team at the end of the season" titles than actual national championship titles. OK I had to rant, on to the real story...

Sam Bradford deciding to come back means that Mark Sanchez probably slides up into the #2 position for QBs in the draft. Naturally, Sanchez decided to bolt for the money. This is a big setback for the Trojans because the offense was expected to carry the team next season. This decision means USC will not be competing for a national championship in 2009 and Pete Carrol is not pleased about that. Carrol took a huge dump on what should have been one of the happiest days in Sanchez's life. You can see what he had to say here.

Here is a nice little snippet of what ol' Petey had to say:

"Mark is going against the grain on this decision and he knows that. He knows that coming out early is a tremendous challenge for a quarterback and the statistics don't back up that it's easy to be successful in the way that he's going about it."

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Gator Nation still loves you Stoopsie

Finebaum ranks the SEC coaches...

You can view the list here.

The SEC lost a little bit of coaching star power with the departures of Phil Fulmer and Tommy Tuberville. That being said, the SEC still has the best collection of coaches in the country.

Numbers 1 and 2 are obvious.

I think numbers 3-6 are interchangeable. I still have no idea how good Les Miles is as a coach. I thought we would know for sure after this season, but it's kind of hard to blame Miles for going 7-5 when he had no starting quarterback, was breaking in new defensive coordinators, and had to replacemost of his defensive backfield. It looks like he has the defensive coordinator thing figured out and the QB situation looks like it will be under control for next season. The romp over a good Georgia Tech team in LSU's bowl game was certainly impressive. Mark Richt looks like he will go down as one of the best SEC coaches to never win a national championship. Petrino had some impressive wins this season and his Arkansas teams will only get better. In two or three years I think he will solidify himself as the #3 or #4 guy (if he sticks around that long). Houston Nutt will do well with Orgeron's players... once they are gone Ole Miss will go back to being Ole Miss.

I am not sure I would put Spurrier higher than Bobby Johnson or Rich Brooks at this point. Both Johnson and Brooks have produced similar records to Spurrier, but with less overall talent. Spurrier has wasted some pretty good defenses with his terrible offenses. South Carolina has also put some RBs and WRs in the NFL draft, so it seems that the real problem is QB, which is supposed to be Spurrier's specialty. It looks like Urban Meyer will easily surpass Spurrier's accomplishments at Florida, so a little bit of Spurrier's legacy has also taken a hit.

And that leaves us with the new hires. I think Dan Mullen screwed up big time taking the Mississippii State job. If he would have held out another year or two (especially with Tebow coming back) he would have been able to get himself a top tier job. I am not even old enough to remember the last successful Mississippii State head coach. Has there ever even been one? Mullen will need to recruit his ass off to turn the program around. Unfortunately, that is not one of his strong points. He was regarded as one of the weak links on Florida's otherwise strong recruiting staff. According to Rivals.com, Mullen was only responsible for bringing in 1 or 2 recruits a year. Still, though, he was a part of Meyer's staff and that has to count for something. If he is only half as good a coach as Meyer, that will still be better than what MSU is accustomed to.

At first glance, Lane Kiffin and Gene Chizik look like very questiobale hires. Luckily for Tennessee and Auburn both guys put together tremendous staffs. I'm not sure you can rank either guy ahead of the other one at this point.

Ahh, the offseason...

Well, that awful time of the year is upon us. No more games to watch, no more polls to debate over, no controversy, no story lines. We've got National Signing Day coming up in a couple weeks, and then spring practice will begin a few weeks after that. The most interesting part of the offseason is, of course, watching to see which players from which schools will end up driving drunk, committing armed robbery, getting into fights, beating their girlfriend, and buying/selling drugs. Who could forget Alabama's Jimmy John cocaine drug ring? Or Florida's Ronnie Wilson firing an AK-47 into the air after being chased by some unknown assailant?

If you feel that your life is not complete unless you have some kind of poll to analyze each week, you can always keep an eye on EDSBS' Fulmer Cup to see which school's band of thugs comes out on top for most crimes committed.

Friday, January 9, 2009

2009 Preseason Top 10

I always wanted to make a ridiculously early top 10 list before anybody knows exactly who is staying and who is going. Here goes.

1. Florida

I thought the championship game would be the last time Percy Harvin and Brandon Spikes suited up for the Gators. I am not so sure now. Even if they don't come back, the Gators have a bunch of guys ready to step in. The defense might be even better next year than it was this year.

2. Texas

Texas was a young team this past season. Most thought they were a year away. With McCoy coming back they will be in good shape for a title run.

3. Oklahoma

They lose a lot on the offensive line, but the Big 12's defensive lines are pretty terrible so it shouldn't matter. If Bradford comes back, the Texas/OU game will probably be for a spot in the national championship game.

4. USC

Their whole defense is gone, but we all know USC's reserves are better than most team's starters. Sanchez will be back and the Pac 10 will still be bad. That said, USC will once again lose a game they shouldn't and be locked out of the title game.

5. Ohio State

Beanie and most of the defense will be playing in the NFL next season. That probably won't matter much. Tressel owns the Big 10 and that will continue. Pryor will be a much better player next season. I don't know if he'll ever develop into an elite passing QB, but his current skill set is still good enough to terrorize most of the Big 10. They'll probably make a BCS bowl and lose to either USC or the Texas/OU loser.

6. Virginia Tech

The ACC champs were supposed to be rebuilding this season. They lose a great CB in Victor Harris but not much else. If they can get passed 'Bama at the beginning of the season, they could go on a run similar to Penn State's this year.

7. Oklahoma State

Zach Robinson and Kendall Hunter will be coming back. Points will be scored. Lots of them.

8. Utah

They don't really belong here because they lose a lot of important seniors. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt for now, I guess.

9. LSU

I really don't know what to make of this team. They could go undefeated or they could lose five games again. The defense will be much better under John Chavis, but they need to find someone who can make plays at the QB position.

10. Mississippii

Could Ole Miss be the best team in the SEC West? They return a lot of starters and they finished the season with a lot of momentum. Alabama loses a lot of senior leadership. See above for LSU. Auburn will be better but not by much. The combonation of Ed Orgeron's players and Houston Nutt's coaching ability is tough to beat.

Other teams that will probably appear in the top 10 at some point in the season: Penn State, Boise State, Alabama, TCU, Georgia Tech, Oregon.

Champs

Pretty strange game last night. I didn't think either defense would play as well as they did. Here's my observations:

1. The Gators used a simple formula to slow down the OU offense. They lined up correctly and they tackled well. OU's offense had been feasting all season on defenses that could not keep up with their fast pace, but with a month to prepare Florida's defense adjusted just fine. OU even slowed their offense down when they realized that they weren't going to be able to outpace the Gator defense. I think Oklahoma averaged something like 90 plays a game, but managed just 76 in this game. Watching replays of the game, it's kind of funny because Fox obviously had this whole thing setup with a clock to show how fast OU gets their plays off. I don't think we saw that clock again after half time.

2. What a monster play by Torrey Davis on that fourth and goal play. He shed TWO blockers AND made the tackle. That was about as good a play as you will ever see out of the DT position. Ahmad Black's interception was also outstanding. Black was a third string corner back going into spring practice, and now he is one of the best safeties in the nation.

3. The game ball has to go to Percy Harvin. He was maybe 80%-85%. Percy usually glides all over the field, but even on his long runs you could tell that the ankle was bothering him. Tebow will get most of the offensive credit, and he did pick up some key first downs, but the Gators don't win the game last night without Percy Harvin.

4. The refs were terrible in this game. Florida's defense was ready for OU's fast paced offense; the refs were not. Half the time they could not get the ball set on time and they continually had problems with the game clock. The excessive celebration/taunting penalties in college football are getting out of hand. It's not that they're calling too many of them, it's that there is no consistency. Louis Murphy gets flagged for making a first down signal, but there is no flag when Tebow is running and jumping all over the field while waving his hands up and down? This is like foul calls in the NBA. If you're a well known player you can celebrate all you want and not get penalized, but the other guys get flagged for the smallest things. It's been like this all season for every team, though, not just last night.

5. The Sooners really missed DeMarco Murray. I thought it was ridiculous when the media tried to act like him not being in the lineup was no big deal. His replacement, Chris Brown, had a very good game, but Brown is not the type of back that can get you points against this defense. Brown is a grind-it-out, move the chains kind of running back. The only way to score on this defense is with big plays. DeMarco Murray is OU's best playmaker. You can't methodically drive down the field on the Gator defense because they will eventually force a turnover or get you in a third and long situation. I believe the Gators are the best defense in terms of stopping teams on third down. If they're not #1 they're in the top 5.

6. Tebow is not ready for the NFL. He played his worst or second worst half (first half of Auburn 2007 being the other stinker) of football to open the game. The only reason he was effective in the second half was because he decided if his primary receiver wasn't open he was just going to tuck it and run. This works great in college (Vince Young did the same thing against USC a few years ago), but it's not going to fly in the NFL.

On a side note, Nic Harris is a total douche bag. What an embarrassment. He intentionally used Tebow's head as a stepping stool to get off the ground once. There was no doubt that he did this on purpose. He also held on to Harvin's legs on the play Harvin tweaked his ankle. I don't think it had anything to do with the injury, but it was still a bush league move. You know he must have been playing dirty for Tebow to taunt him at the end the way he did. I don't think Tebow is as saintly as everyone makes him out to be, but Tebow would not do what he did unless Harris really deserved it.

Monday, January 5, 2009

STOP IT

Just noticed Terelle Pryor is sporting the initials on the back of his arms. THIS ISN'T COOL NOW AND IT'S NOT GOING TO BE COOL 40 YEARS FROM NOW.

Thursday, January 1, 2009

One Week To Go

I decided to start posting my thoughts on the 'ship since we are officially just a week away and Iowa is turning this Outback Bowl into a yawner.

This post was inspired by this Bill Simmons column.

Basically, the 2008 Oklahoma Sooners are college football's version of the Mike D'Antoni/Steve Nash led Phoenix Suns from the middle of this decade. They score a lot of points. They're fun to watch. They never made it to the NBA Finals.

Yes, this Sooner team made it to the college football equivalent of the NBA Finals, but only because they played in a conference full of other Suns type teams.

Most NBA fans are familiar with those Suns teams. They won 55-60 games while scoring a bajilion points, but then ran into the defensive minded San Antonio Spurs in the playoffs. The Spurs slowed the game down and Phoenix's inability to play a slow tempo, half court game became their undoing.

No doubt, the Florida Gators are going to slow the game down. They're going to run. And run. And run. And run. Oklahoma is down a defensive tackle and might have to start their third string middle line backer. If Urban Meyer has his way, Tim Tebow will put the ball in the air 15 times at the most.

The ingenious part of this strategy is it takes OU's biggest offensive advantage (their fast paced offense) and turns it against them. If Florida is going on 12 play, seven minute scoring drives, can OU afford to run the up tempo offense and risk putting the OU defense back out on the field? Oklahoma is going to have to slow down to give their defense time to rest.

Most people believe that the OU offense vs. the UF defense is the key matchup, but in reality this game will be decided by how well OU defends UF's rushing attack.