Is this finally the week Texas goes down? I think so. Two things:
1. Texas has played their three previous big games either at home or on a neutral field, this one is on the road.
2. Texas is starting to wear down.
Texas' one weakness is its secondary, which does not exactly bode well when going up against Texas Tech and Michael Crabtree. Talent-wise, Texas of course has the advantage, but it is just too hard to beat a top 12 team four weeks in a row.
At this point you can bet that Texas is becoming both physically and mentally drained. Many are calling this the biggest game in Texas Tech history. Not exactly a great combo if you're a Texas fan. If this game were in Austin the 'Horns would be able to feed off the crowd for energy, but that is not going to be possible on the road.
Texas Tech's defense isn't going to stop Texas, but it will slow it down just enough for Texas Tech to come out with the win.
Texas Tech 49, Texas 45.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Florida-Georgia
Not much needs to be said about this one. Georgia danced its way to a 42-30 win last season, in large part due to Knowshon Moreno running for 188 yards and 3 TDs. Everyone talks about the end zone celebration, but in reality that had little to do with the outcome of the game. After Georgia drew two unsportsmanlike penalties for the celebration, the Gators got the ball and scored within the next two plays.
Georgia was able to win the game because the Florida defense could not tackle, Tebow was playing with one arm, and the offense did not execute during crucial parts of the game. This year, Tebow is healthy and an improved Gator defense will be hyped to make up for last year's game.
These two teams are basically the same as last year. Georgia's offensive and defensive lines are not quite what they were a year ago due to some injuries, but the emergence of A.J. Green at the wideout position has led to an improved Georgia passing attack. Florida lost playmaker Bubba Caldwell, but has finally found a running game with Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey. The Florida defense returns everyone but Tony Joiner, who has been ably replaced by Ahmad Black (3 INTs, 2 of them returned for TDs).
This game falls on the shoulders of the Georgia defense. Georgia's offense needs to rely on Knowhson Moreno. Alabama was able to gash the Georgia D on the ground, keeping Moreno off the field, and by building a large first half lead they took Moreno completely out of the game and the Dawgs were never able to recover. Stafford is more than capable of making big plays, but he is too inconsistent to be solely relied on in a shootout. The Gator offense is far more explosive than Alabama's, and the Gators feature a running attack just as good as the Tide's. The Bulldogs will have to find a way to keep Florida out of the end zone early.
The Gator defense will surely load the box to stop Moreno. I wouldn't be surprised if we see true freshman Will Hill make a name for himself in this game (If he hasn't already with his seemingly endless amount of special teams tackles), as he is built with the perfect amount of size and speed to move up from his safety position and contain Moreno.
Georgia will keep this one close in the first half, but the Gators will break it open in the second half due to their depth along the offensive and defensive line. By the end of the third quarter the Dawgs will have to abandon the running game and rely on Stafford, and he won't be able to get it done.
Gators 45, Georgia 28.
Georgia was able to win the game because the Florida defense could not tackle, Tebow was playing with one arm, and the offense did not execute during crucial parts of the game. This year, Tebow is healthy and an improved Gator defense will be hyped to make up for last year's game.
These two teams are basically the same as last year. Georgia's offensive and defensive lines are not quite what they were a year ago due to some injuries, but the emergence of A.J. Green at the wideout position has led to an improved Georgia passing attack. Florida lost playmaker Bubba Caldwell, but has finally found a running game with Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey. The Florida defense returns everyone but Tony Joiner, who has been ably replaced by Ahmad Black (3 INTs, 2 of them returned for TDs).
This game falls on the shoulders of the Georgia defense. Georgia's offense needs to rely on Knowhson Moreno. Alabama was able to gash the Georgia D on the ground, keeping Moreno off the field, and by building a large first half lead they took Moreno completely out of the game and the Dawgs were never able to recover. Stafford is more than capable of making big plays, but he is too inconsistent to be solely relied on in a shootout. The Gator offense is far more explosive than Alabama's, and the Gators feature a running attack just as good as the Tide's. The Bulldogs will have to find a way to keep Florida out of the end zone early.
The Gator defense will surely load the box to stop Moreno. I wouldn't be surprised if we see true freshman Will Hill make a name for himself in this game (If he hasn't already with his seemingly endless amount of special teams tackles), as he is built with the perfect amount of size and speed to move up from his safety position and contain Moreno.
Georgia will keep this one close in the first half, but the Gators will break it open in the second half due to their depth along the offensive and defensive line. By the end of the third quarter the Dawgs will have to abandon the running game and rely on Stafford, and he won't be able to get it done.
Gators 45, Georgia 28.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
"Ok Les Miles, you win" Addendum
Earlier this year I made a post about Les Miles finally proving he belongs among the SEC's elite when it comes to coaches after LSU pulled out a last second victory over Auburn. Obviously two things have changed since that post:
1. Auburn has proven to be terrible.
2. LSU has lost two games by a combined 44 points.
No one really expected big things out of the offense after Ryan Perrilloux was booted off the team, but the defense has not been very impressive either. The personnel is still there, notably on the defensive line, but Bo Pelini is definitely missed. Miles has lost two games in each of his first three seasons, and he sits at two losses so far this season with Alabama still on the schedule.
1. Auburn has proven to be terrible.
2. LSU has lost two games by a combined 44 points.
No one really expected big things out of the offense after Ryan Perrilloux was booted off the team, but the defense has not been very impressive either. The personnel is still there, notably on the defensive line, but Bo Pelini is definitely missed. Miles has lost two games in each of his first three seasons, and he sits at two losses so far this season with Alabama still on the schedule.
Sunday, October 19, 2008
The Big 12
Sorry I haven't been updating more frequently. I will get back to it this week.
Many people are starting to believe that the Big 12 may be the best conference this year. This is in large part due to the crazy amount of points put up by some Big 12 offenses this year. Just look at the scores from this past weekend:
http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/scoreboard?confId=4&weekNumber=8&seasonYear=2008
The Big 12 has some great quarterbacks, and I do believe that the QB position is the most important one on the field, but we still must remember that offense may win games, but defense wins championships. The SEC still fields the best defenses in the country.
Tennessee and Auburn being down this year really hurts the SEC. These two teams' poor showing thus far is really why the Big 12 has crept into the Best Conference discussion. Also, Missouri, Ok State, and Kansas are much better this year than they have been historically. Nebraska is the only traditional power from the Big 12 having a down year.
To be honest, I am really not sure which is the best conference, and we probably won't know who will come out on top until bowl season. Just for fun, though, lets match up the best six teams from each conference:
Texas vs Alabama
Oklahoma vs Florida
Oklahoma State vs Georgia
Texas Tech vs LSU
Missouri vs Vanderbilt
Kansas vs Kentucky
Really, all of these games are a push except for OSU/UGA and Mizzou/Vandy. Oklahoma State is a nice story, but they lack the athletes up front to stay with Georgia. Vanderbilt is a nice story, but they have been winning with smoke and mirrors and Chase Daniel would pick them apart. Besides OSU/UGA and Mizzou/Vandy, only one of these matchups has the potential to become the shootout that is seen week in and week out in the Big 12, and that is OU/UF.
The main problem the Big 12 offenses will face against SEC defenses is imbalance. Of all the Big 12 teams listed, only Oklahoma State has a reliable run game. Texas relies too much on McCoy to run the ball, OU's DeMarco Murray is going through a sophomore slump, Mike Leach does not list running back as an offensive position, and Kansas only averages 3.6 ypc and 125 yards a game on the ground. Teams who cannot grind out yards on the ground will not have much success against the best defenses the SEC has to offer. Only three teams in the SEC (Florida, Georgia, Alabama) have shown they can both run and throw the ball. These three teams also just happen to be ranked in the Top 10.
So what did you learn by reading this post? Not a whole lot, which is kind of the point. No real answers will come until the season is finished. However, I would love to see the SEC champ take on the Big 12 champ for the national title this year.
Many people are starting to believe that the Big 12 may be the best conference this year. This is in large part due to the crazy amount of points put up by some Big 12 offenses this year. Just look at the scores from this past weekend:
http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/scoreboard?confId=4&weekNumber=8&seasonYear=2008
The Big 12 has some great quarterbacks, and I do believe that the QB position is the most important one on the field, but we still must remember that offense may win games, but defense wins championships. The SEC still fields the best defenses in the country.
Tennessee and Auburn being down this year really hurts the SEC. These two teams' poor showing thus far is really why the Big 12 has crept into the Best Conference discussion. Also, Missouri, Ok State, and Kansas are much better this year than they have been historically. Nebraska is the only traditional power from the Big 12 having a down year.
To be honest, I am really not sure which is the best conference, and we probably won't know who will come out on top until bowl season. Just for fun, though, lets match up the best six teams from each conference:
Texas vs Alabama
Oklahoma vs Florida
Oklahoma State vs Georgia
Texas Tech vs LSU
Missouri vs Vanderbilt
Kansas vs Kentucky
Really, all of these games are a push except for OSU/UGA and Mizzou/Vandy. Oklahoma State is a nice story, but they lack the athletes up front to stay with Georgia. Vanderbilt is a nice story, but they have been winning with smoke and mirrors and Chase Daniel would pick them apart. Besides OSU/UGA and Mizzou/Vandy, only one of these matchups has the potential to become the shootout that is seen week in and week out in the Big 12, and that is OU/UF.
The main problem the Big 12 offenses will face against SEC defenses is imbalance. Of all the Big 12 teams listed, only Oklahoma State has a reliable run game. Texas relies too much on McCoy to run the ball, OU's DeMarco Murray is going through a sophomore slump, Mike Leach does not list running back as an offensive position, and Kansas only averages 3.6 ypc and 125 yards a game on the ground. Teams who cannot grind out yards on the ground will not have much success against the best defenses the SEC has to offer. Only three teams in the SEC (Florida, Georgia, Alabama) have shown they can both run and throw the ball. These three teams also just happen to be ranked in the Top 10.
So what did you learn by reading this post? Not a whole lot, which is kind of the point. No real answers will come until the season is finished. However, I would love to see the SEC champ take on the Big 12 champ for the national title this year.
Monday, September 29, 2008
Good Perspective on the Title Chase
http://cfn.scout.com/2/795302.html
Pete Fiutak of CFN and Stewart Mandel of CNNSI are the best in the biz when it comes to talking college football. Fiutak posted his thoughts on all the upsets over the weekend, and I pretty much agree. His 7th point is particularly interesting and spot on.
Pete Fiutak of CFN and Stewart Mandel of CNNSI are the best in the biz when it comes to talking college football. Fiutak posted his thoughts on all the upsets over the weekend, and I pretty much agree. His 7th point is particularly interesting and spot on.
Sunday, September 28, 2008
OH THE IRONY
The day after I outline what not to do in this season of shortened games, the Gators go right down the list and do all the things you need to do to lose to an inferior team. Not much analysis is needed here. The Gators lost the turnover battle 3-1 (they also had a punt that went for no yards, so essentially they turned the ball over four times), they performed poorly in kickoff coverage, and of course the nail in the coffin was the blocked extra point (even though an Ole Miss defender illegally hurdled a Florida offensive lineman to get the block, so there should have been a penalty against Ole Miss on the play).
There is plenty of blame to go around for the loss. Percy Harvin and Tim Tebow uncharacteristically put the ball on the ground. The defense allowed two big plays to go for touchdowns, including the game winning 85 yard TD pass on a 3rd and long. The offensive line once again was outplayed. Tebow missed a few passes that would have gone for touchdowns or big gains.
Here is how I see it for Gator fans:
Good News:
The loss was to an SEC West team, so your chances of winning an SEC and national title are the same today as they were before the loss. Win the rest of your games, and you're in. The pollsters are not going to be kind to the Gators this week; they will most likely end up somewhere in the 11-14 range. However, BYU is the only team with an above average chance of going undefeated, but there is no way they are getting into the title game unless all other BCS contenders have two or more losses. Oklahoma looks great, but Oklahoma always looks great in September. They will likely drop a game or two along the way, and probably in the same way the Gators lost this game. Penn State has a shot, but they still have to play OSU and Wisconsin. The Gators will get opportunities to defeat fellow SEC contenders LSU, Georgia, and Alabama (if 'Bama makes it to the SECCG). If there are a handful of one loss teams vying for a spot in the title game, and there will be, the SEC champ will get that spot.
Bad News:
I don't know if it's the Heisman, the offensive line, the loss of Bubba Caldwell and CI, or the playcalling, but Tebow has not been as dominant as he was last season. As stated above, there were multiple reasons why the Gators lost this game, but Tebow left several plays out on the field that could have won the Gators the game. Twice that I saw he had open receivers he should have identified immediately based on what the defense was showing, but instead he went elsewhere with the ball. On first and second down during the final set of downs on the last drive he had open receivers streaking towards the end zone but overthrew them both times. Tebow bashers love to argue that Tebow cannot read defenses. For most of his career they have been incorrect, as Tebow has always done an excellent job at making the right decisions. However, this was not the case in this game as Tebow definitely left some plays out on the field. Florida is not going to win the rest of its games if Tebow cannot elevate his play.
Jim Tartt seems to make or break this offensive line. The fifth year senior guard missed the Hawaii, Miami, and Ole Miss games. It did not matter against an outmatched Hawaii squad, but Miami and Ole Miss were able to disrupt the offense by going at Tartt's replacement, Marcus Gilbert. Tartt's only start this season, against Tennessee, is the only game that Florida has won the line of scrimmage on the offensive side of the ball. The Gators either need to get Tartt healthy, coach Gilbert up, or insert James Wilson. On those 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 plays where they run Tebow, they almost always go left towards Phil Trautwein and Jim Tartt. With Tartt out of the game they decided to go right on that pivotal 4th and 1 play against Ole Miss, and were subsequently stuffed.
The Gator game plan does not seem to fit this offensive line. When the Gators go with five wide outs, they run these long developing plays that ultimately become disrupted by pressure on Tebow. They need to run shorter routes, get the ball out quicker, and let their athletes make plays. The Gators can line up Percy Harvin, Louis Murphy, Aaron Hernandez, Riley Cooper, Deonte Thompson, Chris Rainey, Jeff Demps, Carl Moore and Brandon James in WR positions. You put any of these five guys on the field at one time, there is going to be a major mismatch somewhere that can be exploited IMMEDIATELY. They do not need to run some 15-20 yard route. Get the ball in their hands ASAP. Hit them on a WR screen, a 5 yard slant or out pattern, and let them make the play.
Outlook:
Obviously, the Gators cannot afford to lose focus again like they did this week. It was possible to overcome three turnovers in the past. If you turn over the ball three times this year, you are going to lose unless your opponent is being as generous as you are. The loss to Auburn in 2006 was the catalyst for that year's championship run. The team did not get dejected, they got pissed off. They turned up the intensity and came out focused for every game after that. These 2008 Gators need to do the same. Assuming the Gators don't come out and beat themselves like they did in this game, they should only face significant resistance against LSU and Georgia. Georgia certainly looked beatable last night. Alabama was able to put Georgia in a position where Matt Stafford had to win them the game, and of course he was not able to come through. The Gators will follow the same game plan.
LSU is a whole different animal, however. This is the game that will make or break the Gators season. This is not really a surprise; the winner of this game the past two years has gone on to win the national title. LSU is similar to Ole Miss. While Ole Miss gets great offensive and defensive line play, LSU's lines are dominant. Both Ole Miss and LSU will try to control the game with a power running game and an eventual big play through the air off of play action. If the Gators can get passed LSU, they have an excellent shot at being in Atlanta for the SECCG.
There is plenty of blame to go around for the loss. Percy Harvin and Tim Tebow uncharacteristically put the ball on the ground. The defense allowed two big plays to go for touchdowns, including the game winning 85 yard TD pass on a 3rd and long. The offensive line once again was outplayed. Tebow missed a few passes that would have gone for touchdowns or big gains.
Here is how I see it for Gator fans:
Good News:
The loss was to an SEC West team, so your chances of winning an SEC and national title are the same today as they were before the loss. Win the rest of your games, and you're in. The pollsters are not going to be kind to the Gators this week; they will most likely end up somewhere in the 11-14 range. However, BYU is the only team with an above average chance of going undefeated, but there is no way they are getting into the title game unless all other BCS contenders have two or more losses. Oklahoma looks great, but Oklahoma always looks great in September. They will likely drop a game or two along the way, and probably in the same way the Gators lost this game. Penn State has a shot, but they still have to play OSU and Wisconsin. The Gators will get opportunities to defeat fellow SEC contenders LSU, Georgia, and Alabama (if 'Bama makes it to the SECCG). If there are a handful of one loss teams vying for a spot in the title game, and there will be, the SEC champ will get that spot.
Bad News:
I don't know if it's the Heisman, the offensive line, the loss of Bubba Caldwell and CI, or the playcalling, but Tebow has not been as dominant as he was last season. As stated above, there were multiple reasons why the Gators lost this game, but Tebow left several plays out on the field that could have won the Gators the game. Twice that I saw he had open receivers he should have identified immediately based on what the defense was showing, but instead he went elsewhere with the ball. On first and second down during the final set of downs on the last drive he had open receivers streaking towards the end zone but overthrew them both times. Tebow bashers love to argue that Tebow cannot read defenses. For most of his career they have been incorrect, as Tebow has always done an excellent job at making the right decisions. However, this was not the case in this game as Tebow definitely left some plays out on the field. Florida is not going to win the rest of its games if Tebow cannot elevate his play.
Jim Tartt seems to make or break this offensive line. The fifth year senior guard missed the Hawaii, Miami, and Ole Miss games. It did not matter against an outmatched Hawaii squad, but Miami and Ole Miss were able to disrupt the offense by going at Tartt's replacement, Marcus Gilbert. Tartt's only start this season, against Tennessee, is the only game that Florida has won the line of scrimmage on the offensive side of the ball. The Gators either need to get Tartt healthy, coach Gilbert up, or insert James Wilson. On those 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 plays where they run Tebow, they almost always go left towards Phil Trautwein and Jim Tartt. With Tartt out of the game they decided to go right on that pivotal 4th and 1 play against Ole Miss, and were subsequently stuffed.
The Gator game plan does not seem to fit this offensive line. When the Gators go with five wide outs, they run these long developing plays that ultimately become disrupted by pressure on Tebow. They need to run shorter routes, get the ball out quicker, and let their athletes make plays. The Gators can line up Percy Harvin, Louis Murphy, Aaron Hernandez, Riley Cooper, Deonte Thompson, Chris Rainey, Jeff Demps, Carl Moore and Brandon James in WR positions. You put any of these five guys on the field at one time, there is going to be a major mismatch somewhere that can be exploited IMMEDIATELY. They do not need to run some 15-20 yard route. Get the ball in their hands ASAP. Hit them on a WR screen, a 5 yard slant or out pattern, and let them make the play.
Outlook:
Obviously, the Gators cannot afford to lose focus again like they did this week. It was possible to overcome three turnovers in the past. If you turn over the ball three times this year, you are going to lose unless your opponent is being as generous as you are. The loss to Auburn in 2006 was the catalyst for that year's championship run. The team did not get dejected, they got pissed off. They turned up the intensity and came out focused for every game after that. These 2008 Gators need to do the same. Assuming the Gators don't come out and beat themselves like they did in this game, they should only face significant resistance against LSU and Georgia. Georgia certainly looked beatable last night. Alabama was able to put Georgia in a position where Matt Stafford had to win them the game, and of course he was not able to come through. The Gators will follow the same game plan.
LSU is a whole different animal, however. This is the game that will make or break the Gators season. This is not really a surprise; the winner of this game the past two years has gone on to win the national title. LSU is similar to Ole Miss. While Ole Miss gets great offensive and defensive line play, LSU's lines are dominant. Both Ole Miss and LSU will try to control the game with a power running game and an eventual big play through the air off of play action. If the Gators can get passed LSU, they have an excellent shot at being in Atlanta for the SECCG.
Friday, September 26, 2008
Clock Rules
Last week I listed three reasons why I thought the mid-majors and other programs who have never had much success have all of a sudden become relevant in college football. Well add another reason to the list: the new clock rules.
As we saw last night, the most talented team on the field now has a smaller chance of winning due to the shortening of the game. Most teams get about 8 or 9 possessions a game now. Last night, USC had three 3 and outs and two turnovers. You just cannot afford to do that now no matter who the opponent is. If you don't score on a drive, you at least have to gain a field position advantage or else you may waste an entire half's worth of possessions. This is what happened to USC last night.
With the old rules, you could afford to turn the ball over a couple of times because you could make up for it later on. This is no longer the case. Each turnover reduces a team's chance to win drastically. Special teams are also at an all time high value wise. Superior teams could get away with shaky special teams in the past, but this is no longer the case. Even though special teams have always been important, you barely ever hear an analyst discuss a team's special teams when talking about their chance at winning championships. I believe that will change as long as these new clock rules are in place; however, I don't think the new clock rules will last long.
As we saw last night, the most talented team on the field now has a smaller chance of winning due to the shortening of the game. Most teams get about 8 or 9 possessions a game now. Last night, USC had three 3 and outs and two turnovers. You just cannot afford to do that now no matter who the opponent is. If you don't score on a drive, you at least have to gain a field position advantage or else you may waste an entire half's worth of possessions. This is what happened to USC last night.
With the old rules, you could afford to turn the ball over a couple of times because you could make up for it later on. This is no longer the case. Each turnover reduces a team's chance to win drastically. Special teams are also at an all time high value wise. Superior teams could get away with shaky special teams in the past, but this is no longer the case. Even though special teams have always been important, you barely ever hear an analyst discuss a team's special teams when talking about their chance at winning championships. I believe that will change as long as these new clock rules are in place; however, I don't think the new clock rules will last long.
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